Flybe nosedives on profits warning

[NoTailT]

1 hour ago, jaymann said:

I see Loganair have been refused slots for Summer 2021 at Heathrow. Was to be expected I guess.

That is hardly bloody surprising. They were living in a pipe dream.

Eastern Airways have lost their Teeside slots too by looks of it and BA have dropped Leeds, meaning the bulk of the NE now unserved to Heathrow.

[John Wright]

31 minutes ago, NoTailT said:

 

I hate to break it to ya, but those levels of fares are inevitable for the foreseeable future, no way we'll see cheap fares to/from the Island until maybe easyjet comes back. I read somewhere that easyjet were talking about closing down their Liverpool base and consolidating it all to Manchester, so that will be interesting to see how it impacts routes here.

@Andy Onchanthe bit on the gatwick slots I saw at https://www.pprune.org/10928688-post665.html

Are fares that high, even now, on Logan? Out to Liverpool tomorrow, 7 days, inc hold bag, £100 return.
 

If easyJet can fill more than 2 LGW flights a day, including a late morning/early afternoon rotation,  they will fly and see off competition to City or Heathrow.

EasyJet will be back to London. If they leave Liverpool then there’s an opening for Logan/Eastern or a start up, like Emerald under the Aer Lingus Regional umbrella. And Dublin  is good for onward  connections nowadays.

Liverpool is the one route that could justify a Manx National Airline,  protecting one essential route, as long as government don’t get vanity project ideas, buy jets and fly to all sorts of daft places. A Manx painted couple of Stobarts?

Or seaplanes to land on the Mersey and use that big terminal. They’re daft enough, with our money.

[snowman]

1 hour ago, NoTailT said:

 

I hate to break it to ya, but those levels of fares are inevitable for the foreseeable future, no way we'll see cheap fares to/from the Island until maybe easyjet comes back. I read somewhere that easyjet were talking about closing down their Liverpool base and consolidating it all to Manchester, so that will be interesting to see how it impacts routes here.

@Andy Onchanthe bit on the gatwick slots I saw at https://www.pprune.org/10928688-post665.html

this is the source. make of it what you will

 

[NoTailT]

1 hour ago, John Wright said:

Are fares that high, even now, on Logan? Out to Liverpool tomorrow, 7 days, inc hold bag, £100 return.
 

If easyJet can fill more than 2 LGW flights a day, including a late morning/early afternoon rotation,  they will fly and see off competition to City or Heathrow.

EasyJet will be back to London. If they leave Liverpool then there’s an opening for Logan/Eastern or a start up, like Emerald under the Aer Lingus Regional umbrella. And Dublin  is good for onward  connections nowadays.

Liverpool is the one route that could justify a Manx National Airline,  protecting one essential route, as long as government don’t get vanity project ideas, buy jets and fly to all sorts of daft places. A Manx painted couple of Stobarts?

Or seaplanes to land on the Mersey and use that big terminal. They’re daft enough, with our money.

The biggest thing with Liverpool is that the route is 100% underwritten at the moment, so anything is fair game to Loganair profit wise on the ticket sales there.

Isle of Man - Manchester out this Friday and return a week later? £230 return.

London City, same dates, £340 return.

This is despite underwriting from IOM PLC.

[snowman]

2 hours ago, jaymann said:

I see Loganair have been refused slots for Summer 2021 at Heathrow. Was to be expected I guess.

 

thats not true

[jaymann]

2 minutes ago, snowman said:

 

thats not true

Are you sure?

[snowman]

1 minute ago, jaymann said:

Are you sure?

 

 

when is the above dated ?

 

this is from 5 days ago

 

https://ukaviation.news/loganair-eyes-heathrow-to-isle-of-man-route/

[jaymann]

1 minute ago, snowman said:

 

 

when is the above dated ?

 

this is from 5 days ago

 

https://ukaviation.news/loganair-eyes-heathrow-to-isle-of-man-route/

That is published last 48hrs for Summer 2021 allocations.

Thats just a news article. Loganair were granted slots for the remainder of the Winter 2021 timetable, as we're Eastern Airways from Teeside. Both have not been granted these slots for next summer.

[John Wright]

53 minutes ago, NoTailT said:

The biggest thing with Liverpool is that the route is 100% underwritten at the moment, so anything is fair game to Loganair profit wise on the ticket sales there.

Isle of Man - Manchester out this Friday and return a week later? £230 return.

London City, same dates, £340 return.

This is despite underwriting from IOM PLC.

But a week later Manchester is £140 return. It’s down to demand and capacity.  Choose dates and you can get £60 single each way.

No different to Flybe and BA fares.

[madmanxpilot]

Absolutely, Manx Airlines fares were high in comparison to what we see today. But, back then the fares were all inclusive, there were no extra charges for baggage, for inflight refreshments or like for like itinerary changes. This is where the modern LOCOs make their money, along with clever pricing policies which see very low lead in fares and everything bar that costing more. Also, lets not forget the fares that EZY were demanding for travel in March - £470 for a one way flight to Liverpool because the flights were nearing capacity. Also, how many people have been successful in getting their money back for flights which EZY had to cancel because of the Pandemic?

I don't know why Aurigny costs so much to operate. Most likely its economies of scale, or perhaps some shitty lease deals that were due in the past. What is not mentioned or clear is the economic benefit from having a local carrier who operates solely for the interest of it's owners. On the IOM, Manx Airlines was the second largest employer after IOMG,  those salaries and all income taxes fed back into the local economy. Many outsourced functions and supply provision were made locally too.

Having aircraft and crews  based here, means that the priority in times of weather disruption is to hold for overhead as long as possible if appropriate, or if a diversion is required, to get the aircraft back to the IOM ASAP to continue the operation. For an off Island operator, once the aircraft has diverted back to it's base, unless there is spare capacity in their fleet, the flights will be cancelled and passengers transferred to the next available service. Larger aircraft operating less frequently mean that more people are inconvenienced for longer periods.

Diversions have become more regular occurrence since the main runway was extended because the facilities at Ronaldsway are now, quite frankly, totally inadequate to allow for genuine low visibility operations. Much of the approach lighting system was sacrificed for the extension, which in itself was only ever done to encourage EZY to operate here. One would have expected that an airport that is very prone to stubborn sea fog have would have invested in measures to mitigate that as far as possible. This hasn't been the case, and the airport management are evidently more keen on aesthetics than functionality. 

Regarding the comment about EZY acquiring slots for more LGW-IOM flights, I would take what appears in PPRUNE with a very large pinch of salt!

What remains of the aviation industry post Covid is anyones guess. But I do feel very strongly that the Island's best interests will be served by having aircraft and crews, be they Government owned, sponsored or contracted, based here.

 

Edited November 18, 2020 by madmanxpilot

[Manximus Aururaneus]

19 minutes ago, madmanxpilot said:

Absolutely, Manx Airlines fares were high in comparison to what we see today. But, back then the fares were all inclusive, there were no extra charges for baggage, for inflight refreshments or like for like itinerary changes. This is where the modern LOCOs make their money, along with clever pricing policies which see very low lead in fares and everything bar that costing more. Also, lets not forget the fares that EZY were demanding for travel in March - £470 for a one way flight to Liverpool because the flights were nearing capacity. Also, how many people have been successful in getting their money back for flights which EZY had to cancel because of the Pandemic?

I don't know why Aurigny costs so much to operate. Most likely its economies of scale, or perhaps some shitty lease deals that were due in the past. What is not mentioned or clear is the economic benefit from having a local carrier who operates solely for the interest of it's owners. On the IOM, Manx Airlines was the second largest employer after IOMG,  those salaries and all income taxes fed back into the local economy. Many outsourced functions and supply provision were made locally too.

Having aircraft and crews  based here, means that the priority in times of weather disruption is to hold for overhead as long as possible if appropriate, or if a diversion is required, to get the aircraft back to the IOM ASAP to continue the operation. For an off Island operator, once the aircraft has diverted back to it's base, unless there is spare capacity in their fleet, the flights will be cancelled and passengers transferred to the next available service. Larger aircraft operating less frequently mean that more people are inconvenienced for longer periods.

Diversions have become more regular occurrence since the main runway was extended because the facilities at Ronaldsway are now, quite frankly, totally inadequate to allow for genuine low visibility operations. Much of the approach lighting system was sacrificed for the extension, which in itself was only ever done to encourage EZY to operate here. One would have expected that an airport that is very prone to stubborn sea fog have would have invested in measures to mitigate that as far as possible. This hasn't been the case, and the airport management are evidently more keen on aesthetics than functionality. 

Regarding the comment about EZY acquiring slots for more LGW-IOM flights, I would take what appears in PPRUNE with a very large rich of salt!

What remains of the aviation industry post Covid is anyones guess. But I do feel very strongly that the Island's best interests will be served by having aircraft and crews, be they Government owned, sponsored or contracted, based here.

 

Other than being a 'Frequent flyer' I admit to having virtually zero knowledge of your industry and hence I bow to your vastly superior knowledge - what you post makes sense to me.

But I have to ask one question - How/why on earth did a small airline serving 80,000 people need to grow to be 'the second largest employer after IOMG????

Empire building? Was that its downfall?

[madmanxpilot]

1 minute ago, Manximus Aururaneus said:

Other than being a 'Frequent flyer' I admit to having virtually zero knowledge of your industry and hence I bow to your vastly superior knowledge - what you post makes sense to me.

But I have to ask one question - How/why on earth did a small airline serving 80,000 people need to grow to be 'the second largest employer after IOMG????

Empire building? Was that its downfall?

If I recall correctly, it's success was its downfall. 

The British Regional Airlines Group, (BRAL) of which Manx was a part, was bought by British Airways.

BA saw it as an opportunity to gain the Heathrow landing slots held by Manx, and to get rid of its regional operation, BA Regional by combining it with BRAL to form BA Connect. BA Connect was then sold to Flybe, the rest is history....

[Manximus Aururaneus]

2 minutes ago, madmanxpilot said:

If I recall correctly, it's success was its downfall. 

The British Regional Airlines Group, (BRAL) of which Manx was a part, was bought by British Airways.

BA saw it as an opportunity to gain the Heathrow landing slots held by Manx, and to get rid of its regional operation, BA Regional by combining it with BRAL to form BA Connect. BA Connect was then sold to Flybe, the rest is history....

Back of a fag-packet figure - how much / how many people to run a small, dedicated service to cater for IOM basic needs for on/off Island  connection to say Liverpool and London daily - no other add ons?

[Roger Mexico]

42 minutes ago, madmanxpilot said:

[...] Much of the approach lighting system was sacrificed for the extension, which in itself was only ever done to encourage EZY to operate here. One would have expected that an airport that is very prone to stubborn sea fog have would have invested in measures to mitigate that as far as possible. This hasn't been the case, and the airport management are evidently more keen on aesthetics than functionality. 

This is often said, but it actually isn't true.  easyJet actually started operating to Ronaldsway in Summer 2010 - well before the airport extension was finished.  They could land very well using the old configuration.  What has happened is that Reynolds and co have used easyJet flights and their popularity as a sort of post hoc justification of their unnecessary spending spree.

(I always suspected that the extension was actually aimed at the executive and small jet market, but that would be harder to justify to the public).

Edited November 18, 2020 by Roger Mexico
Typos

[madmanxpilot]

6 minutes ago, Manximus Aururaneus said:

Back of a fag-packet figure - how much / how many people to run a small, dedicated service to cater for IOM basic needs for on/off Island  connection to say Liverpool and London daily - no other add ons?

I wouldn't like to hazard a guess! 
A local MHK did some sums this year and it wasn't cheap and ticket prices were quite high.

But, what was not quantified, were the benefits.