Flybe nosedives on profits warning

[John Wright]

29 minutes ago, asitis said:

I'll not comment on anyones abilities or wishes to run a local airline, merely applaud them should it succeed. It is difficult however to see where any commercial strategy, that we know of, is being applied by Government in respect of airline services again. For instance having paid loganair a fortune to keep the routes open during the pandemic, which was necessary, we then welcome back the free for all that open skies brings with the return of Easyjet in May (doubtful) and now Stobart starting locally. Within the airline industry locally, I do not know of anyone who thinks open skies is a great idea, all it has succeeded in doing over many years is putting local people out of work, causing them to relocate and a general loss of revenue to the treasury. Government has lost/paid out millions over the years supporting the merry go round that is open skies, whilst painting itself into a corner in respect of the sea routes. In my view the current clean sheet of nothing happening surely gives time for a pause for a strategy that will enhance the services both for the companies concerned and the travelling public, with a degree of certainty going forward. To continue with the constant coming and going on a whim by whoever may wish to is folly imo. We need something like open skies light and imo it is better to throw money at supporting some operators than constantly picking up the pieces when all falls in a heap.

Stobart has never operated its own flights to/from IOM. Well, not since it was the original Aer Arran.  It’s operated on behalf of Aer Lingus and Flybe. It’s not got a booking system.

Its lost its Aer Lingus regional franchise from end 2022. There haven’t been IOM Dublin flights for over a year. It lost the Flybe franchise for flights out of Stobart owned Southend a year before Flybe went tits up. 

What makes anyone think it’ll actually fly to/from IOM - especially if EZY return.

[TerryFuchwit]

15 minutes ago, John Wright said:

Stobart has never operated its own flights to/from IOM. Well, not since it was the original Aer Arran.  It’s operated on behalf of Aer Lingus and Flybe. It’s not got a booking system.

Its lost its Aer Lingus regional franchise from end 2022. There haven’t been IOM Dublin flights for over a year. It lost the Flybe franchise for flights out of Stobart owned Southend a year before Flybe went tits up. 

What makes anyone think it’ll actually fly to/from IOM - especially if EZY return.

I would prefer exclusivity on routes.  For example Dublin has worked for a very long time but only because there is one operator.

You saw the effect on Belfast the minute Easyjet popped on the Friday Monday flights taking the cream that made it worth doing.  

To be fair though we have had pretty consistent air services.  And despite the usual made up stuff about how much it has "cost" it certainly costs a lot less than the money Guernsey subsidise into Aurigny.

[John Wright]

14 minutes ago, TerryFuchwit said:

I would prefer exclusivity on routes.  For example Dublin has worked for a very long time but only because there is one operator.

You saw the effect on Belfast the minute Easyjet popped on the Friday Monday flights taking the cream that made it worth doing.  

To be fair though we have had pretty consistent air services.  And despite the usual made up stuff about how much it has "cost" it certainly costs a lot less than the money Guernsey subsidise into Aurigny.

And air fares were lower in real terms and seat numbers were higher in absolute numbers in the year before Covid, than ever.

It'll be interesting to see what the “new normal” brings.

And Dublin was “stable” because there wasn’t enough demand for a second operator.

[asitis]

28 minutes ago, TerryFuchwit said:

I would prefer exclusivity on routes.  For example Dublin has worked for a very long time but only because there is one operator.

You saw the effect on Belfast the minute Easyjet popped on the Friday Monday flights taking the cream that made it worth doing.  

To be fair though we have had pretty consistent air services.  And despite the usual made up stuff about how much it has "cost" it certainly costs a lot less than the money Guernsey subsidise into Aurigny.

It has but the cost to local people and indirectly to the treasury has been high.

[TerryFuchwit]

15 minutes ago, John Wright said:

And air fares were lower in real terms and seat numbers were higher in absolute numbers in the year before Covid, than ever.

It'll be interesting to see what the “new normal” brings.

And Dublin was “stable” because there wasn’t enough demand for a second operator.

There isn't a single route outside of Liverpool that has enough demand for multiple operators to the same airport.  

[Andy Onchan]

1 hour ago, asitis said:

I'll not comment on anyones abilities or wishes to run a local airline, merely applaud them should it succeed. It is difficult however to see where any commercial strategy, that we know of, is being applied by Government in respect of airline services again. For instance having paid loganair a fortune to keep the routes open during the pandemic, which was necessary, we then welcome back the free for all that open skies brings with the return of Easyjet in May (doubtful) and now Stobart starting locally. Within the airline industry locally, I do not know of anyone who thinks open skies is a great idea, all it has succeeded in doing over many years is putting local people out of work, causing them to relocate and a general loss of revenue to the treasury. Government has lost/paid out millions over the years supporting the merry go round that is open skies, whilst painting itself into a corner in respect of the sea routes. In my view the current clean sheet of nothing happening surely gives time for a pause for a strategy that will enhance the services both for the companies concerned and the travelling public, with a degree of certainty going forward. To continue with the constant coming and going on a whim by whoever may wish to is folly imo. We need something like open skies light and imo it is better to throw money at supporting some operators than constantly picking up the pieces when all falls in a heap.

The national transport strategy is not worth the paper it's written on.

[Andy Onchan]

21 minutes ago, John Wright said:

And air fares were lower in real terms and seat numbers were higher in absolute numbers in the year before Covid, than ever.

It'll be interesting to see what the “new normal” brings.

And Dublin was “stable” because there wasn’t enough demand for a second operator.

But neither was Belfast.

[Non-Believer]

11 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said:

The national transport strategy is not worth the paper it's written on.

How long ago was it compiled and are the criteria and information it was based on at that time still relevant?

[John Wright]

12 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said:

But neither was Belfast.

Although historically Belfast was always served by two carriers. 

[snowman]

If the fares are low it will generate demand

[TerryFuchwit]

Just now, snowman said:

If the fares are low it will generate demand

If all the fares are low it doesn't work economically.

[snowman]

1 minute ago, TerryFuchwit said:

If all the fares are low it doesn't work economically.

Tell that to Ryanair 

[Andy Onchan]

21 minutes ago, Non-Believer said:

How long ago was it compiled and are the criteria and information it was based on at that time still relevant?

I have a copy of what I think was the last updated version somewhere in my archive. I'm pretty sure it was updated from a Tynwald Committee hearing but as far as I can recall it was still advocating an open sky approach. I'll try and dig it out. In anycase, if you can work out how the search engine on IOMG website works (which isn't good), then you may be able to find it online..... but as I say, good luck with that. 

[Andy Onchan]

4 minutes ago, snowman said:

Tell that to Ryanair 

Volume... based only on volume and add-ons. What's advertised is not necessarily what you'll pay.

[TerryFuchwit]

15 minutes ago, snowman said:

Tell that to Ryanair 

That isn't how Ryanair or Easyjet work