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Flybe nosedives on profits warning


Andy Onchan

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On 3/8/2020 at 11:07 AM, thesultanofsheight said:

Yes agreed and were into the SPC for over £200M now and we’ve only owned it 18 months. 

But it's a profitable company and always will be. A real asset.

ETA: I appreciate that if anyone can turn it into a loss making venture then our government would be the go to experts, but even for them it's highly improbable with a monopoly business that they control access to.

Edited by woolley
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21 hours ago, thesultanofsheight said:

£124M to buy it, £35M for the new Liverpool terminal about £60M being raises for two new boats as a minimum. It’s well over £200M already. How will the debt reduce? Will you be paying it off? 

But it's not a £200m debt per se. Against that there is the value of the monopoly business and the yearly profits into the future. We will ALL be paying it off.

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17 hours ago, thesultanofsheight said:

The loan replacement was still part of the purchase price you can’t just conveniently discount it like we didn’t write a cheque for £76M on top of what we paid for the equity. Doesn’t matter about the private placement either. The SPC will be borrowing the amount and will be paying it back to the borrower (ie, refinancing) so as I said over £200M spent or committed to be spent so far however you want to look at it. 

There is a difference between "spent" and "invested", although I don't believe we should have touched the terminal in Liverpool.

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15 hours ago, pongo said:

@thesultanofsheight @sir nige - rather than criticising the govt numbers, each tell us how you would have done it different.

Me - I'd have let anyone who wanted to dock with freight. And I would have come down hard on restrictive practices by any operator. But then I'm a free market capitalist. And I'd don't especially care if there is only a passenger and vehicle service a few days every week. But I'm interested to hear alternative perspectives.

I'm a free market capitalist but not at all costs. Here was an opportunity for the government to secure a vital lifeline and make a healthy profit into the bargain almost in perpetuity. Letting the market find its level on this after decades of the user agreement would be just too much of a risk. Air services are a nice to have. The sea service is vital.

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4 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said:

The Liverpool terminal will be the proverbial white elephant.

"No freight" should have been the deal breaker. Having to use Heysham for freight leaves us over PP's barrel.

If we're going to build and own our own terminal, we should say what goes through it. It's our lifeline.

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52 minutes ago, woolley said:

But it's a profitable company and always will be. A real asset.

ETA: I appreciate that if anyone can turn it into a loss making venture then our government would be the go to experts, but even for them it's highly improbable with a monopoly business that they control access to.

paper profit only because it hasn't any funds for new boats......

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1 hour ago, sir nige said:

paper profit only because it hasn't any funds for new boats......

It's a cash cow. In 2018, Page 9 here on a turnover of c. £59m it made £18.2m cash inflow from operating activities. (£19.5m in 2017)

How many people have enough money to buy a house outright? Most people borrow the funds (mortgage the property) against their future earnings from employment.

It's the same with a company and a ship. Massive capital investment upfront with affordable debt financing funded by future earnings from freight and passenger fares.  You can repay a lot of debt with a cash inflow of £18m p.a. … i.e. it's sustainable.

£150m at 5% -> £7.5m interest and £10m p.a. capital repayment?? (in practise the Govt report on refinancing options, they expect a coupon rate between 2 & 2,5% via private placement)

Could have it paid back in 15 years.

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