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UK motor industry and Brexit


Barrie Stevens

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  • 3 weeks later...
43 minutes ago, Bobbie Bobster said:

So internal combustion R&D will probably start to end around 2030 I guess, maybe a little later.  2035-ish models might be the ones to aim for as future classics.

On the other hand 2040 is a long time away so what they've actually done is put it in the "somebody else's problem" file, just like the 2050 emissions promises.

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It has the feel of a realistic timeline.

For the old tech, enough time to write off assets and r&d spend, or to maximise the return on them.

For new tech, enough time to sort out generation and transmission infrastructure, and for capacity and recharge capability to improve.

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A lot can change in over 20 years though. I remember in the 60s and 70s the railways were in managed decline, service cutbacks, falling passenger numbers, line singling and rationalisation, talk of closing all but about 2,000 miles of track. Now it's turned right around. They can't keep up with the demand. New lines going in. Rationalisation reversed and more passengers than for almost 100 years.

Some new technology could come along that sweeps away electric vehicles as we know them today.

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51 minutes ago, woolley said:

A lot can change in over 20 years though. I remember 

Some new technology could come along that sweeps away electric vehicles as we know them today.

Retinculating Combobulators. Get in early and invest now...you heard it here first :)

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2 hours ago, woolley said:

what they've actually done is put it in the "somebody else's problem" file, just like the 2050 emissions promises.

I agree with this. And I don't believe there is enough lithium for a switch to electric cars. The models for how much lithium there is available are based on current usage. And battery technology really hasn't advanced to the degree to which many people imagine.

But perhaps it's like Kennedy saying they would go to the moon. Perhaps from the wish comes innovation. There was a good reason that electric cars went out of fashion after the internal combustion engine became reliable.

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3 minutes ago, Albert Tatlock said:

Lithium was the 3rd most abundant element after the big bang.

But sod all on earth...so expect people heading into space to find it after 2060.

In electric rockets?

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