Catalonia

[woolley]

I am surprised we haven't heard a lot more about what is going on in Spain. It could turn quite nasty and Madrid might be shooting themselves in the foot in the long term by denying the vote. Being a fervent hispanophile I view it with particular dismay.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/catalonia-referendum-government-suspended-de-facto-independence-spain-madrid-government-raid-a7957046.html

[guzzi]

I'm not sure that this dam can or should be shored up. 

I can understand the incentive for Rajoy to try to stop it. Spain needs Catalan industry and wealth, and there are other regions, especially the Basque Country, where secessionist sentiment is very strong.  Catalan influence extends into Valencia and the Balearics.  Spain would suffer a tremendous shock from the loss of so much of it's territory. As it is, the country finds it very tough imposing financial control because of the huge amount of fiscal independence enjoyed by the autonomous communities.  

But Rajoy has mishandled it.  PP and PSOE ought to have been campaigning vigorously in Catalunya for retaining the union, instead of trying to stamp on the referendum. Too late now. They might be able to negotiate a new timescale with the Catalan Government to allow time for campaigning.

[woolley]

Yes. Knowledgeable post, guzzi. The resentment goes way back and the loosening of the constitution and greater regional autonomy after Franco was going to lead to this at some point. This is a typical Spanish heavy handed way of going about things, particularly sending in the hated Guardia Civil. It is ill advised too. You can imagine the reaction in Scotland if an independence referendum had been denied and Holyrood suspended. It makes the original problem worse.

There is a philosophy in Gibraltar about the continuously antagonistic Spanish way of trying to recover the Rock:

As the Spanish cold wind blows from the north, Gibraltar pulls its British overcoat more tightly around it. If Spain was to turn on the sunshine, Gibraltar might eventually, over time, feel more disposed to taking the coat off. Seems like the same applies to the attitude of those dealing with Catalonia.

There is a view that the only way to hold Spain together is with a strong man like Franco in charge, and the forty years since his demise are simply the time it has taken to unravel. I do hope that they can find common cause and stop the rot.

[guzzi]

The use of the Guardia Civil jumped out at me, too. They normally have a small (practically invisible) presence in Barcelona for the express purpose of dealing with central government issues.  I would imagine that Rajoy genuinely feared mutiny if he asked the Mossos d'Esquadra to enforce this intervention, though, and it would not surprise me if the Guardia concerned were brought in from regions where there is little sympathy with Catalunya.

[woolley]

Quite likely, which will only add to the resentful tension.

[quilp]

With five and a half million of them, they're quite a crowd. And 110,000 or so in adjacent areas of France. What would Catalan independence mean for Spain and its current status within the EU? Yet more expensive and lengthy renegotiation with the likelihood of massive social unrest if the EU and Spain let it all drag on. And as guzzi said (good post), there are the Basques to consider on the issue of independence. It couldn't be one without the other.

Another potential fracture in the foundations of the EU edifice, perhaps? 

[Uhtred]

The Galicians will be watching this closely with great interest too.

[guzzi]

13 hours ago, Uhtred said:

The Galicians will be watching this closely with great interest too.

I'm very familiar with Galicia, and very fond of it.  One thing to bear in mind is that although there is a level of nationalist sentiment there, unlike Catalunya it is one of the poorest regions of Spain.  I suspect that the Galicians know which side their  bread is buttered. Strangely, considering the persecution of the language and culture by Franco, there is also quite a strong right wing tradition. Until quite recently, the city of Ferrol (Franco's birthplace) had an equestrian statue of 'el caudillo' in a city square. Even now, it has only been moved within the nearby naval base.

So, all in all, I would be surprised if Galicia followed Catalunya.

[Uhtred]

3 hours ago, guzzi said:

I'm very familiar with Galicia, and very fond of it.  One thing to bear in mind is that although there is a level of nationalist sentiment there, unlike Catalunya it is one of the poorest regions of Spain.  I suspect that the Galicians know which side their  bread is buttered. Strangely, considering the persecution of the language and culture by Franco, there is also quite a strong right wing tradition. Until quite recently, the city of Ferrol (Franco's birthplace) had an equestrian statue of 'el caudillo' in a city square. Even now, it has only been moved within the nearby naval base.

So, all in all, I would be surprised if Galicia followed Catalunya.

Interesting post - thanks for that Guzzi.

[twinkle]

On ‎20‎/‎09‎/‎2017 at 6:02 PM, quilp said:

With five and a half million of them, they're quite a crowd. And 110,000 or so in adjacent areas of France. What would Catalan independence mean for Spain and its current status within the EU? Yet more expensive and lengthy renegotiation with the likelihood of massive social unrest if the EU and Spain let it all drag on. And as guzzi said (good post), there are the Basques to consider on the issue of independence. It couldn't be one without the other.

Another potential fracture in the foundations of the EU edifice, perhaps? 

I hope so, the I-o-m has more democracy [that's saying something] than this house of horrors.

[Lxxx]

As someone who has family ties to the regional government in Catalonia I'm watching with interest. Have spoken to my proud Catalan family out there today, not a nice situation at the moment. Huge intimidation push which is only reinforcing local sentiment.

 

I suspect Brussels is forcing the authoritarian approach as a show of force by a crumbling Union. 

[guzzi]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41373977

Confirmation that the central Government have taken direct control of the Catalan Police Force (Mossos D'Esquadra) and that thousands of external police from outside Catalunya have been moved into the region, billeted on cruise ships in Barcelona.

The situation is becoming very serious, with plenty of unfortunate echoes of earlier times. I think there is a genuine possibility, if not probability, of mutiny within the Mossos D'Esquadra and the Guardia Civil being called on to impose the will of the central government.

Personally, I do not think Brussels has a hand in this. The current coalition government led by Mariano Rajoy, and the previous PP government led by the same man, have been unequivocal in stating that any independence poll organised by the Catalan Government will be illegal and simply trying to stamp out Catalunya's independence claim. In my book, a more conciliatory approach, and selling national unity to Catalunya, would have been a great deal better. The EU has nothing to gain from a crisis of these proportions, neither does it have any jurisdiction in what is an internal Spanish matter.

[woody2]

On 21/09/2017 at 1:16 PM, Uhtred said:

Interesting post - thanks for that Guzzi.

he certainly has a degree in talking buster....

[woody2]

On 20/09/2017 at 2:27 PM, woolley said:

 You can imagine the reaction in Scotland if an independence referendum had been denied

 

 

it has......

[Lxxx]

12 hours ago, guzzi said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41373977

Confirmation that the central Government have taken direct control of the Catalan Police Force (Mossos D'Esquadra) and that thousands of external police from outside Catalunya have been moved into the region, billeted on cruise ships in Barcelona.

The situation is becoming very serious, with plenty of unfortunate echoes of earlier times. I think there is a genuine possibility, if not probability, of mutiny within the Mossos D'Esquadra and the Guardia Civil being called on to impose the will of the central government.

Personally, I do not think Brussels has a hand in this. The current coalition government led by Mariano Rajoy, and the previous PP government led by the same man, have been unequivocal in stating that any independence poll organised by the Catalan Government will be illegal and simply trying to stamp out Catalunya's independence claim. In my book, a more conciliatory approach, and selling national unity to Catalunya, would have been a great deal better. The EU has nothing to gain from a crisis of these proportions, neither does it have any jurisdiction in what is an internal Spanish matter.

The EU has every jurisdiction. Madrid sold out to Brussels years ago and the powers there can see it's empire collapsing across the piece. I think it's naïve to think that EU central command have left Madrid to it's own devices on this one. If they are only looking the other way in this show of force then it's complicit in the decision-making process.