COVID-19 UK & Beyond

[Rog]

16 minutes ago, P.K. said:

I thought it was crass. And unnecessarily harsh. Which is fair enough. Or should be.

Loved the way all the usual suspects piled in with all their usual nonsense though.

Johnson is so obviously out of his depth that he deferred to the adults on either side of him, who actually could be trusted. But I still think schools will be forced to close.

I'm fatalistic about it but also realise we have to get back to the UK before it arrives here simply because I don't think the island has the resources to deal with it. As for the government, well.... So as we have options and we're going to make use of them. It would be stupid not to.

Didn't you write that you were living somewhere near Manchester not long ago?

Schools closed? No question about it but that won't do much as far as the spread of the virus is concerned but it will have a huge effect on the infrastructure as parents have to stay home to look after their kids.

I can understand the UK policy.  It's based on cold logic and to be honest at this stage the emphasis must be "flattening the sombrero" and managing the whole country.  There's God knows how many tens of even hundreds of thousands of people schlepping around while incubating the virus. Now phase two makes sense, not pandering to the emotional based judgement of Joe Public.

[P.K.]

1 minute ago, Rog said:

Didn't you write that you were living somewhere near Manchester not long ago?

Schools closed? No question about it but that won't do much as far as the spread of the virus is concerned but it will have a huge effect on the infrastructure as parents have to stay home to look after their kids.

I can understand the UK policy.  It's based on cold logic and to be honest at this stage the emphasis must be "flattening the sombrero" and managing the whole country.  There's God knows how many tens of even hundreds of thousands of people schlepping around while incubating the virus. Now phase two makes sense, not pandering to the emotional based judgement of Joe Public.

Do you understand my point that a lot of schools are going to end up closed anyway?

Because it sounds as though you don't....

[Rog]

1 minute ago, P.K. said:

Do you understand my point that a lot of schools are going to end up closed anyway?

Because it sounds as though you don't....

Yes, but by holding off closing them now won't do anything to affect the spread of the virus but would impact widely on the UK infrastructure. Keeping them open will result in people at present off work recovering and returning to work before the wave of people unable to work if the schools were closed now.

It's about managing resources in a changing environment.

[P.K.]

3 minutes ago, Rog said:

Yes, but by holding off closing them now won't do anything to affect the spread of the virus but would impact widely on the UK infrastructure. Keeping them open will result in people at present off work recovering and returning to work before the wave of people unable to work if the schools were closed now.

You have no idea if it will work out like that.

[Rog]

Just now, P.K. said:

You have no idea if it will work out like that.

You're right.  The reality is that no one does with certainty but it's based on experience with other virus infections that have swept over in the past such as swine flu.

 

[pongo]

46 minutes ago, Rog said:

pandering to the emotional based judgement of Joe Public.

aka "the will of the people".

[Freggyragh]

2 hours ago, Rog said:

I don't believe that is the case at all.  I DO believe he is taking advice from experts in the field of highly communicable disease though.

I do believe that too. It’s a huge gamble and it is impossible to predict how it will pan out. If a widespread infection is inevitable before a vaccine can be developed then it is certainly better to delay it and take it on the chin over April, May and June than all in one go next winter. That is the cold hard logic, and I admire Johnson for levelling with the public and taking that course. There are big risks involved; we don’t really know if herd immunity will be successfully achieved against this particular virus, and if a magic cure that doesn’t require testing comes along in August then people will say it was all for nothing. As I say, I can’t help  distrusting Johnson in the back of my mind because he is an untrustworthy individual, but faced with the choices he has I trust he is going on the best advice from the scientists - even if it goes against natural instinct and the decisions of almost every other country. I will shut up about him being a dickhead for the time being. He has somehow ended up as the dickhead in charge and has a bloody awful responsibility. I wish him and us all the best. 

Edited March 13, 2020 by Freggyragh

[woolley]

2 hours ago, Freggyragh said:

Don’t you wish you had a government like those of Japan, China, South Korea, Macau, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore? They seem to have taken the necessary measures to protect their people and stop the spread. The U.K. response seems to be defeatist in the extreme - I appreciate Johnson explaining the thinking behind it, but I can’t help thinking that he is taking a different path from the rest of the world, particularly the countries of the Far East who have experience of these diseases, because he’s lazy and doesn’t give a shit about anyone but himself.  

You surely can't believe that Johnson has devised the policy all on his own? This is based on the best scientific advice available, and it seems to make sense in pursuit of flattening the peak. I don't see how it is defeatist in the slightest. Shutting everything down too soon is panic. Don't forget that in many of the countries you list, a long term lockdown is far easier because if their citizens step out of line they can simply disappear so not many will try it. Different matter in the UK where people don't take kindly to being told what to do and stick two fingers up to authority with impunity. Time will tell who was right, if anyone. 

[P.K.]

29 minutes ago, woolley said:

You surely can't believe that Johnson has devised the policy all on his own? This is based on the best scientific advice available, and it seems to make sense in pursuit of flattening the peak. I don't see how it is defeatist in the slightest. Shutting everything down too soon is panic. Don't forget that in many of the countries you list, a long term lockdown is far easier because if their citizens step out of line they can simply disappear so not many will try it. Different matter in the UK where people don't take kindly to being told what to do and stick two fingers up to authority with impunity. Time will tell who was right, if anyone. 

I'm just glad Johnson is no longer allowed out unless accompanied by two responsible adults...

[Freggyragh]

Read my post above. There is conflicting scientific advice. We don’t know which scientific advice is best yet. I trust Johnson and his team have made the right choice. I understand that the circumstances of each country are very different nevertheless, my gut instinct would be to do what almost all the other countries are doing.
 

Johnson’s course is to anticipate about 60% of the U.K. catches the virus over the next couple of months, and therefore about 6% suffer badly enough to require hospital treatment that is unlikely to be in place, and that 3% will die. That’s a high stakes gamble. I do trust that Johnson is making a calculated decision in consultation with the best minds available, and I admire his bravery in sticking to his guns. I know you have strong reservations about Johnson too, so even though the head says he’s right, the heart finds it hard to put faith in him. Don’t read any more into my thoughts than that, as I’m sure you are thinking exactly like me. We have hard times coming just round the corner and I sympathise with Johnson in his predicament. He’s wanted to be PM since forever, and now he is he gets this impending disaster and awful series of decisions to make. 

[P.K.]

It's getting harder not to think they're making it up as they go along:

"Mass gatherings are to be banned across the UK from next weekend, the government has announced after Boris Johnson’s cautious approach to the coronavirus outbreak was overtaken by care homes, sporting bodies and even the Queen taking matters into their own hands."

This is piss poor:

"There was no specific advice for how older people should protect themselves, aside from avoiding going on cruises."

As ever the trusty Grauniad:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/uk-to-ban-mass-gatherings-in-coronavirus-u-turn

[Rog]

9 hours ago, P.K. said:

I'm just glad Johnson is no longer allowed out unless accompanied by two responsible adults...

Oh grow up.

[Rog]

7 hours ago, P.K. said:

It's getting harder not to think they're making it up as they go along:

"Mass gatherings are to be banned across the UK from next weekend, the government has announced after Boris Johnson’s cautious approach to the coronavirus outbreak was overtaken by care homes, sporting bodies and even the Queen taking matters into their own hands."

This is piss poor:

"There was no specific advice for how older people should protect themselves, aside from avoiding going on cruises."

As ever the trusty Grauniad:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/uk-to-ban-mass-gatherings-in-coronavirus-u-turn

The advice given REPEATEDLY is very clear.

The decision to hold off mass bans and why that has stood has also been made very clear.

The fact that so many bloody stupid people ignored it and so put the strategy on flattening the sombrero in jeopardy is why the additional measures into effect.

Do you really not understand?

[woolley]

8 hours ago, P.K. said:

This is piss poor.

Your constant carping on a subject you know nothing about is piss poor. Even scientists disagree. We shall just have to wait and see whether the UK government made the right call. No doubt you will be here eating a healthy portion of humble pie if this proves to be the case. Meanwhile,  to save yourself further embarrassment, I suggest you put a sock in it. 

[John Wright]

Unless P.K., wooley, and Rog put a sock in it and stop the interminable and boring sniping, about each other, Brexit, BoJo ( serial philanderer or not ), coronavirus etc they’ll all have an enforced quarantine lock down for the health of the forums.

Unfortunately what they have caught isn't fatal to them and the rest of us haven’t got herd immunity protection.