COVID-19 UK & Beyond

[pongo]

7 minutes ago, Chinahand said:

the UK's efforts are as far as I'm aware in the forefront 

According to this leak the lack of testing in the UK (even of hospital staff) is down to a complete lack or resources.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised

• The health service cannot cope with the sheer number of people with symptoms who need to be tested because laboratories are “under significant demand pressures”.

• From now on only the very seriously ill who are already in hospital and people in care homes and prisons where the coronavirus has been detected will get tested.

• Testing services are under such strain that even NHS staff will not be swabbed, despite their key role and the risk of them passing the virus on to patients.

Edited March 15, 2020 by pongo

[Chinahand]

I'm fascinated by these worst case scenarios - I'd really like to understand where the 80% figure comes from.  Where's the evidence for it?  The evidence I can understand is that populations isolate themselves pretty quickly once they are aware that it is spreading - this is happening now in the UK with only 1400 cases.  When it happened in Hubei cases dropped from 1000 a day to in the 10s in a month as populations quarantined.  It looks very much like the UK is following that trajectory with the population very much preparing to isolate with bog roll supplies for a 6 months siege (if all else fails there's always terrys towelling, water and a boil wash - people are strange).

My understanding we are testing more then Germany and France - plus we have a centralised health system which is easier to coordinate than the mixed systems on the continent.

This is where the modelling has to deal with multiple waves coming through as people emerge from quarantine and are then re-infected.  It may happen and China will be the first sign of how likely it is.

Link to chart showing China's decline - Hubei had 3,000 deaths in a population of 60million - if 1 in 100 dies that is 300,000 cases in 60million 0.5% of the population - where the heck do they get 80% from?

[Chinahand]

Chart comparing China (which is effectively Hubei) v Italy.

[Manxberry]

No one believes China's figures. 

[pongo]

I'm certainly starting to understand the benefits of total centralised state control. The ability of the Chinese to impose an effective lockdown, trace and test people etc.

Here we've still got idiots arguing that this is all an over-reaction or a conspiracy.

[P.K.]

It would appear the UK strategy is somewhat out on it's own. I would be ok with that if other countries did not appear to be making progress. 

Doctors and scientists urge government to stop ignoring strategies from countries that have brought cases down

Anthony Costello, a UK paediatrician and former director of the World Health Organization (WHO), said he had personally written to the chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, asking for testing to continue in the community.

“The key principles from WHO are intensive surveillance,” he told the Guardian. “You test the population like crazy, find out where the cases are, immediately quarantine them and do contact tracing and get them out of the community. This deals with family clusters. That’s the key bedrock of getting this under control.

This was how South Korea, China, Japan, Hong Kong and Taiwan had brought their case numbers down. “You can really take people out of the population and make sure they are quarantined. That is vital – before you get to social distancing.”

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO’s director general, expressed his deep concern on Friday at the end of testing and contact tracing in the UK and some other European countries.

“You can’t fight a virus if you don’t know where it is,” he said. “Find, isolate, test and treat every case to break the chains of Covid transmission. Every case we find and treat limits the expansion of the disease.”

[mojomonkey]

 

 

 

I know its not his fault and he didn't know this was coming, but still, it is quite amusing.

[P.K.]

It would appear that China is leading the way with testing.

When Covid-19 got out of control in Wuhan, after three weeks of public health inaction, the Chinese authorities mounted a proper campaign to control the virus. They listened to the WHO. They tested extensively, setting up mobile testing centres, and getting the test result time down from four days to four hours. They cut the time from onset of symptoms to lab result from 12 to three days. They identified family clusters (the virus spreads mainly through extended close contact so family members are most at risk) and arranged isolation centres for contacts.

Above all, they mobilised communities. They didn’t leave it all to messages and nudge behavioural methods. Yes, Wuhan was in lockdown, but across the country local authorities had high autonomy to help people abide by these best public health principles. This was not a terrorised population but one passionate about tackling an existential threat. They also used apps and smartphones to get messages across, to share information about local clusters and for data collection. Everyone in Wuhan, a city of 11 million, ordered their food online, and had it delivered.

And the strategy worked. In seven weeks China stopped the epidemic in its tracks. It now reports only 10 to 20 new cases per day in a population of nearly 1.4 billion. Deaths have plummeted. Several other countries, including South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan, have copied this strategy, with local modifications, with similar results.

[P.K.]

China outbreak. True or false?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

[Manxberry]

If you believe those figures from China, you're an idiot. 

[P.K.]

Personally I would far rather trust a former director of the WHO than a PM who is obviously completely out of his depth.

Each to their own....

[Freggyragh]

Boris can’t magic up trained health professionals to run tests out of thin air. China sent thousands of health professionals to Hubei from the other provinces. Europe can’t have a centralised health emergency response strategy because sovrunty, and what would we do with all about all the heart conditions caused by rising blood pressure at the influx of forins?

Edited March 16, 2020 by Freggyragh

[P.K.]

Just watched the Press Conference.

Talk about a U-turn.

[doc.fixit]

I actually thought Boris was reasonably statesmanlike in today's news conference.

[quilp]

18 minutes ago, P.K. said:

Just watched the Press Conference.

Talk about a U-turn.

Couldn't you see anything positive in what the totally amoral, narcissistic, serial philanderer and inveterate liar said? What about the content rather than the dance steps?