COVID-19 UK & Beyond

[TheTeapot]

Fair enough man, I disagree on that. You seem to be advocating a similar kind of situation to the Swedish approach. I'm not at all convinced that that has worked in Sweden, and certainly don't think the UK would have managed it.

I don't know what to think of a second (or more) waves. I was kind of hoping that with the strong measures most countries seemed to go for the virus would steadily 'fizzle out', like SARS did. I still kind of think it might, although the poor responses of certain countries now makes this slightly less likely.

[woolley]

I think it will become less potent. Already there are reports from around the world that it is mutating into less dangerous forms. It has to do so for its own preservation. There is no guarantee about the timescale though.

[TheTeapot]

I'd read a few reports of doctors speculating it was weakening, there was one from Italy last week I think that seemed quite persuasive, but its hard to know whats real. Have to say my attention has switched to the insanity in the States over the last week, probably got a bit of corona overload, be interesting to see any consequences of those 'mass gatherings' over the next couple of weeks.

[wrighty]

1 hour ago, woolley said:

I think it will become less potent. Already there are reports from around the world that it is mutating into less dangerous forms. It has to do so for its own preservation. There is no guarantee about the timescale though.

We might know that in a few weeks.  Italy and Spain have lifted lockdown, so watch what happens there.  If their cases go up (they're testing more so they probably will) but deaths remain low then it might be conjectured that there is a less virulent strain of virus becoming predominant.  If deaths follow the cases curve after a couple of weeks delay then it's second wave here we come.

[woolley]

2 minutes ago, wrighty said:

We might know that in a few weeks.  Italy and Spain have lifted lockdown, so watch what happens there.  If their cases go up (they're testing more so they probably will) but deaths remain low then it might be conjectured that there is a less virulent strain of virus becoming predominant.  If deaths follow the cases curve after a couple of weeks delay then it's second wave here we come.

Yes, and in that event, the clamour will be for another tight lockdown of everyone of all ages. "My kids are not your guinea pigs." and other assorted emotive bullshit.

To me, it's a wrongheaded, counterproductive, keyboard warrior driven knee-jerk response. I have always said that the internet has the potential to make the world ungovernable. Here is the evidence.

[P.K.]

21 hours ago, woolley said:

This is based on a false premise. A pandemic is not a "never event". They happen. The societal damage is the sum total of all of the social and financial upheaval being wrought around the world in the massive overreaction by governments and media to the virus. The better way would be to shield the genuinely vulnerable - say those over 60 and those with underlying health conditions - and let the rest of society continue as normal with some minor precautions against transmission to flatten the curve. The vast majority have little or nothing to fear from catching it. They have far more to fear from unemployment, loss of income, loss of businesses, property repossession, bankruptcy, neglect of care for every other illness, relationship breakdown and the consequent psychological ramifications. All of these major self-inflicted wounds will take many years to heal.

I would ask you to explain what you suggest happens in a second wave of infection. The same nonsense all over again at the same colossal cost?

 A "never event" is when a hospital patient is seriously harmed or dies in spite of all the protocols and protective measures there to prevent this happening.

Of course any normal person already understands all of the issues you have raised above as a result of a lockdown. How could they not...?

However what is not understood is the effect of, say, 500,000 fatalities in the UK. Which is certainly a possibility if the virus is allowed to purge the population.

I don't want to get into a discussion about shielding the elderly in places like care homes. Because I would guess that over time eventually the virus would get in. In other words I don't believe it is even a medium term solution.

But if even our useless UK government can save some 450,000 lives it is surely worth doing...

[P.K.]

We should have done more, admits architect of Sweden's Covid-19 'herd immunity' strategy 

Sweden’s chief epidemiologist and the architect of its light-touch approach to the coronavirus has acknowledged that the country has had too many deaths from Covid-19 and should have done more to curb the spread of the virus.

Anders Tegnell, who has previously criticised other countries’ strict lockdowns as not sustainable in the long run, told Swedish Radio on Wednesday that there was “quite obviously a potential for improvement in what we have done” in Sweden.

Asked whether too many people in Sweden had died, he replied: “Yes, absolutely,” adding that the country would “have to consider in the future whether there was a way of preventing” such a high toll.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/architect-of-sweden-coronavirus-strategy-admits-too-many-died-anders-tegnell

[woolley]

22 hours ago, P.K. said:

 A "never event" is when a hospital patient is seriously harmed or dies in spite of all the protocols and protective measures there to prevent this happening.

Of course any normal person already understands all of the issues you have raised above as a result of a lockdown. How could they not...?

However what is not understood is the effect of, say, 500,000 fatalities in the UK. Which is certainly a possibility if the virus is allowed to purge the population.

I don't want to get into a discussion about shielding the elderly in places like care homes. Because I would guess that over time eventually the virus would get in. In other words I don't believe it is even a medium term solution.

But if even our useless UK government can save some 450,000 lives it is surely worth doing...

Another false premise. If the response had been as outlined in my posts of yesterday, there would have been nothing like 500,000 fatalities in the UK. With those under 50 going about their business, gaining antibodies and the old and vulnerable strictly locked down there would very probably have been far fewer deaths than there have been. I repeat, the majority of care homes have been successful at keeping the infection out. If more resources had been concentrated on that effort it would have been the rare exception for a home to have an outbreak. Hopefully, the growing immunity of the population outside would have further protected the vulnerable in the longer term.

How many of your "never events" have occurred as a consequence of sacrificing cancer and coronary appointments and procedures on the altar of dedicating all resources to covid? How much damage from the social and economic consequences has been inflicted?

[P.K.]

58 minutes ago, woolley said:

Another false premise. If the response had been as outlined in my posts of yesterday, there would have been nothing like 500,000 fatalities in the UK. With those under 50 going about their business, gaining antibodies and the old and vulnerable strictly locked down there would very probably have been far fewer deaths than there have been. I repeat, the majority of care homes have been successful at keeping the infection out. If more resources had been concentrated on that effort it would have been the rare exception for a home to have an outbreak. Hopefully, the growing immunity of the population outside would have further protected the vulnerable in the longer term.

How many of your "never events" have occurred as a consequence of sacrificing cancer and coronary appointments and procedures on the altar of dedicating all resources to covid? How much damage from the social and economic consequences has been inflicted?

No it's not a false premise. 

Sweden are coming around to the idea that building "herd immunity" from C-19 actually IS a false premise. Got that?

Swedish antibody study shows long road to immunity as COVID-19 toll mounts

A Swedish study found that just 7.3 percent of Stockholmers developed COVID-19 antibodies by late April, which could fuel concern that a decision not to lock down Sweden against the pandemic may bring little herd immunity in the near future.

Plus half of Sweden's fatalities are from Care Homes.

As I posted previously I can't see how you can keep the virus out of places like care homes while the rest build herd immunity which according to Sweden isn't really happening anyway. Looks like you can't shield care homes for ever.

As to the concerns around "sacrificing" (rich from someone who doesn't care how many elderly die) cancer and coronary procedures we pay Healthcare Professionals to manage that situation. If you know of those who are failing in their duty of care then you need to report them to the relevant authorities.

But the message is VERY VERY clear. The "herd immunity" route would appear to be a dead end. (Sorry. Not intentional....)

Edited June 3, 2020 by P.K.
Typo

[woolley]

23 minutes ago, P.K. said:

 

But the message is VERY VERY clear. The "herd immunity" route would appear to be a dead end. (Sorry. Not intentional....)

You have decided that it is. Not the same thing. It may yet be our best defence.

And Sweden is acknowledging that their approach caused too many deaths but it is advocating something midway between what it did and what other countries have done, which is akin to what I advocated.

There is no point in reporting health professionals for the neglect of all other conditions. They are only following the orders of the authorities.

Edited June 3, 2020 by woolley

[wrighty]

32 minutes ago, P.K. said:

 ...we pay Healthcare Professionals to manage that situation. If you know of those who are failing in their duty of care then you need to report them to the relevant authorities.

Well you'd better report me then.  And all my colleagues.  We are currently failing to provide, for example, joint replacement services to patients that could benefit greatly from them if only we had not diverted the whole health service to preparing for and dealing with covid.  I really think you have no idea of how health services work PK.  I'd like nothing better than to go into the hospital and do a good day's work in the operating theatre but I can't.  We don't have beds - due to covid.  We don't have theatre capacity - due to covid.  Pre-assessment is not fully online - due to covid.  Clinic throughput is reduced - due to covid.

The upshot is that patients cannot access appropriate elective healthcare services due to covid.  So as I'm one of the healthcare professionals paid to manage that situation, and clearly in your view failing to do so, you'd better contact the GMC.

[P.K.]

4 minutes ago, woolley said:

You have decided that it is. Not the same thing. It may yet be our best defence.

And Sweden is acknowledging that their approach caused too many deaths but it is advocating something midway between what it did and what other countries have done, which is akin to what I advocated.

There is no point in reporting health professionals for the neglect of all other conditions. They are only following the orders of the authorities.

No I haven't decided that is it. The science says it is not looking likely. That's not a decision made by me now is it? It's also not my fault that it doesn't suit your narrative.

In any event it means that with what we know right now "herd immunity" may simply not be possible. So just don't go there.

Which leaves a vaccine.

With the scourge that is Ebola it seems that there was lots of research which basically went nowhere. Reading between the lines the reason for that was there was simply not enough money (profit) in it to attract "Big Pharma". But they got lucky.

You crack C-19 and you can name your price. My preference would be the USA having to purchase it from somewhere like China.

Just now, wrighty said:

Well you'd better report me then.  And all my colleagues.  We are currently failing to provide, for example, joint replacement services to patients that could benefit greatly from them if only we had not diverted the whole health service to preparing for and dealing with covid.  I really think you have no idea of how health services work PK.  I'd like nothing better than to go into the hospital and do a good day's work in the operating theatre but I can't.  We don't have beds - due to covid.  We don't have theatre capacity - due to covid.  Pre-assessment is not fully online - due to covid.  Clinic throughput is reduced - due to covid.

The upshot is that patients cannot access appropriate elective healthcare services due to covid.  So as I'm one of the healthcare professionals paid to manage that situation, and clearly in your view failing to do so, you'd better contact the GMC.

It's very obvious to all what's happening and why. Mrs PK is due a review on her double arthroplasty at Wrightington. Believe me it's needed. But it's been deferred and we all know why...

So less of the sarcasm please. It's unnecessary and wasted. Although I admit I used it first on the Woolster even though it's stating the bleeding obvious...

[woolley]

1 hour ago, P.K. said:

My preference would be the USA having to purchase it from somewhere like China.

Because, of course, the USA is infinitely culpable in this mess and China a shining light of probity and good practice. Epitomises your dogmatic, back to front, inside out view of the world.

[P.K.]

24 minutes ago, woolley said:

Because, of course, the USA is infinitely culpable in this mess and China a shining light of probity and good practice. Epitomises your dogmatic, back to front, inside out view of the world.

Complete and utter imaginative bullshit! But bullshit nonetheless....

Worth it simply to humble the quite repulsive character that is the useless, populist, right wing US President.

What an amazing coincidence I hear you say....!

[P.K.]

Just watched PMQ's. Bozo really is completely and utterly out of his depth.

When trapped by Starmer his latest tactic is to ignore the question and instead tell Starmer and the rest of the HoC "What the British Public want is...." bollox bollox bollox.

As Alan Hansen used to say - "Abysmal...."