IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Banker]

6 minutes ago, pongo said:

You cannot provide a single example demonstrating that the Isle of Man economy would positively benefit at this stage from a lifting of the current border restrictions.

It's not a question of whether this crisis is bad news for the economy. Of course it is. But there is no evidence or sensible modelling to indicate that lifting the current restrictions would improve the economy at this stage. Though there is every good reason to assume that it would have a negative impact.

So why would Jersey & Guernsey ease border restrictions and Skelly announce that borders being closed is crippling tourism industry and more tax payers money required to support.

what evidence do you have that it will be negative that Jersey, Guernsey & Skelly don’t have as the large unemployed numbers are waiting?

[pongo]

17 minutes ago, Banker said:

So why would Jersey & Guernsey ease border restrictions and Skelly announce that borders being closed is crippling tourism industry and more tax payers money required to support.

what evidence do you have that it will be negative that Jersey, Guernsey & Skelly don’t have as the large unemployed numbers are waiting?

We're not Jersey or Guernsey and not especially like them either. And Jersey and Guernsey have tourism industries which represent a very much more significant part of their economies.

The significant chunk of IOM tourism relates to motorbikes. And the bikes are not happening this year. Excluding the bikes, tourism is an almost insignificant part of the IOM economy.

---

The relative normality we are enjoying compared with most of the rest of the world is a positive. In a time of bad news for the economy (unless you are in any of the sectors which are currently booming) - that relative local normality provides hope and opportunity. At least our offices, shops and restaurants are able to open normally. 

Edited August 17, 2020 by pongo

[Cascarino]

1 hour ago, pongo said:

Can you give any concrete examples of how you believe ending the current border restrictions would have any significant positive impact on the economy?

Do you expect an influx of tourists?

Edit: personally I believe that the impact on the economy would likely be neutral, tending towards negative.

As a concrete example, my previously profitable company ran a loss for the first six months of the year and is eating in to reserves to keep staff employed. No government help has been given. The outlook for the rest of the year is not much better as our client base is not on the IOM. Pipeline for 2021 is drying up as no client development has been possible.

Zoom etc is a great tool but no substitute for face to face in a relationship business. I fully support border restrictions, but it has to be risk based and done in a sensible manner. If it carries on for much longer we will need to relocate from the island.

[thesultanofsheight]

1 hour ago, pongo said:

You cannot provide a single example demonstrating that the Isle of Man economy would positively benefit at this stage from a lifting of the current border restrictions.

You can’t produce one against either other than constantly state “I feel safer this way so tough” or similar statements when it’s basically a largely unpoliced system built on trust that people haven’t been honoring anyway and the misplaced belief that the borders are “closed” when they are not. I’d rather an actual system that does something (ie, formally test people and track people with quantifiable outputs) rather than trust people not to be dicks. I think the responses to some of Thomas’ questions will be very interesting indeed. 

Edited August 17, 2020 by thesultanofsheight

[Apple]

20 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said:

You can’t produce one against either other than constantly state “I feel safer this way so tough” or similar statements when it’s basically a largely unpoliced system built on trust that people haven’t been honoring anyway and the misplaced belief that the borders are “closed” when they are not. I’d rather an actual system that does something (ie, formally test people and track people with quantifiable outputs) rather than trust people not to be dicks. I think the responses to some of Thomas’ questions will be very interesting indeed. 

Chris Thomas won't get much - the powers that be are too clever.  I would think the criteria for the next steps have been well thought through by now and will be implemented accordingly. 

[pongo]

22 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said:

You can’t produce one against either other than constantly state “I feel safer this way so tough”

No my argument has always been that the economy largely benefits from the relative normality we enjoy as a result of having had a long run of no cases. And that very few need to do old fashioned face-to-face meeting off island. But obviously there are exceptions as @Cascarino describes above.

[Banker]

2 minutes ago, pongo said:

No my argument has always been that the economy largely benefits from the relative normality we enjoy as a result of having had a long run of no cases. And that very few need to do old fashioned face-to-face meeting off island. But obviously there are exceptions as @Cascarino describes above.

So why is unemployment so high and likely to go much higher if the economy is Benefiting so much ??

[Nom de plume]

21 minutes ago, Banker said:

So why is unemployment so high and likely to go much higher if the economy is Benefiting so much ??

Also, why are senior figures in the health sector seemingly being ignored when asking that the Island be opened up as they are ready to deal with the inevitable?  

Edited August 17, 2020 by Nom de plume

[Banker]

16 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

Also, why are senior figures in the health sector seemingly being ignored when asking that the Island be opened up as they are ready to deal with the inevitable?  

Because we have too many people like pongo, teapot & cambon + piebaps sitting pretty and not caring about the consequences on continued isolation, unemployment will be causing major social & economic issues by year end.

[thesultanofsheight]

39 minutes ago, pongo said:

No my argument has always been that the economy largely benefits from the relative normality we enjoy as a result of having had a long run of no cases. And that very few need to do old fashioned face-to-face meeting off island. But obviously there are exceptions as @Cascarino describes above.

We currently have no cases. That isn't going to be the case medium or long term. It’s clearly not going to be the case as the loosely policed 14 day voluntarily self isolation together with all the “key workers” wandering around has no real integrity attached to it. Neither is the totally misplaced belief that the border is closed going to stop transmission. A system of actual testing and tracing will be far more effective and shorten the self isolation period making business travel more viable as well. What could possibly be wrong with that? You seem to be happy to argue that apples are actually pears. The system we have will see covid back. It is just a matter of time as any MHK you speak to will freely admit so we need to find a better way and this is where pandering to the covid crackpots is holding us back as it’s stopping any progress on moving to better systems because most of the crackpots can’t possibly think beyond repeating the tired (and incorrect) mantra that “the border is closed and so we’re now safe”. 

Edited August 17, 2020 by thesultanofsheight

[pongo]

46 minutes ago, Banker said:

So why is unemployment so high and likely to go much higher if the economy is Benefiting so much ??

Because it's not a total solution. Nobody suggested that it is. There isn't a fix for some of this.

You can surely understand that a policy can make something better without making it perfect.

38 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

Also, why are senior figures in the health sector seemingly being ignored when asking that the Island be opened up as they are ready to deal with the inevitable?  

It seems unlikely that anyone reliable is being ignored. Because if they were reliable then they wouldn't have been talking about it.

Edited August 17, 2020 by pongo

[Banker]

Guernsey also have accepted that borders can not remain closed until vaccine found as economy will collapse we need to do the same and stop pandering to the Covid mentalists 

https://guernseypress.com/news/2020/08/13/safest-option-of-waiting-for-vaccine-may-not-be-possible/

[Roger Mexico]

4 hours ago, Non-Believer said:

7 hours ago, Banker said:

https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/border-restrictions-have-significant-impact-on-tourism-sector/
 

skelly saying the bleeding obvious!!

300,000? Really? Sounds very optimistic to me. Are these more "Skelly Figures"?

And does this figure arise from returning residents being classed as tourists too? 

These are Skelly figures and like all such are not even trying to be accurate.

The actual number of visitors to the Island was indeed about 300,000 in 2018[1] (estimated at about 308,300 in the Passenger Survey).  However this includes the whole year and 117,100 of these came (or rather departed) in Q1 (Jan-Apr so as to make sure Easter is always in Q1) and Q4 (Oct - Dec).  So only 191,200 were in the five months of the Summer.

More importantly 'visitors' is defined as everyone who comes to the Island who isn't resident here.  They are actually classified into four groups:

Period Visitors in Paid Accommodation (PVPA)  - people who stay in any sort of paid accommodation: hotel, B&B, campsite, self-catering, Homestay or whatever.  These made up 47% of visitors in 2018.

Visiting Friends or Relatives (VFR) - people who stay with friends or relative rather than paying someone.  Obviously some may be coming over for family reasons or just to see them but still paying for accommodation - they are included in PVPA.  It's where you stay that it is worked out on, not why you came.  These were 32% in 2018.

Business Visitors (BV) - People who are coming over 'in connection with their work'.  As well as the stereotypical businessman this will include people doing other specialist jobs, key workers and so on.  These were 19% in 2018.

Day visitors (DV) Not staying overnight and presumably mostly on business.  Only just over 1%.

So less than half of these 'visitors' were actually people who we would normally think of as visitors. The percentage will obviously be higher in May - Sep, but it is still probably only 120,000 - 140,000. 

 

[1]  The 2019 Passenger Survey analysis would normally have been published around April, but was lost in the Covid crisis.

[Major Rushen]

When the border opens the risk of Covid infection will be from the IOM. residents who for whatever reason will leave and then return. Also relatives of IOM coming over. Tourist and business visitors will be a smaller number.

These numbers need to be worked out and an effective testing process to match. 

Can we deal with a boat load of people being tested on arrival? 
 

Airport arrivals are smaller but how about an ez flight from LPL and LGW at the same time?

Maybe our Gov representatives need to visit Jersey and Guernsey to see how it is done.

This is the planning that is needed and evaluated so that people can leave and return with confidence and that those who don’t also can be as safe as possible.

Or do we just open the doors And get the masks on.

 

 

 

[Andy Onchan]

1 hour ago, Apple said:

Chris Thomas won't get much - the powers that be are too clever.  I would think the criteria for the next steps have been well thought through by now and will be implemented accordingly. 

Do really think so?