IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Roger Mexico]

4 hours ago, Southfork said:

That ignores the several thousand still on MERA who may well not have jobs to go back to. Or who may be going back to very different jobs than they had pay wise. Never mind though. I think this forum should probably change its name to the IOM Covid Support Group. 

There aren't 'several thousand' on MERA.  The most recent figure I could find was from Cannan in July's Tynwald (21 July) when he said:  "just under 1,500 people are currently getting MERA".  I would expect this to have dropped since as the MERS payment was reduced at the start of August - with a corresponding increase in permissible earnings to 'wean' people off the scheme.    Some may go back to full time from that and others may shift to JSA.  But some may continue to take the support till it runs out in September, adjusting their work accordingly, or at least the paperwork relating to it.  So not everyone on MERA will automatically become unemployed when the scheme ends.

Cannan also made the point that the JSA figure "includes around 300 students who are back home for the summer months, but for whom the usual array of seasonal work has not been available this year".  These aren't shown separately and will be spread over various sectors.  And as I've pointed out before there's about 100 extra to normal "Leaving From Or Arriving On Island" which will be inevitable in current circumstances.  So in reality the underlying JSA numbers are probably lower than even 2012-2014. 

The truth is that there was practically no unemployment (in terms of JSA claimants) on the Island before this latest crisis (a high proportion on the register were only there for weeks between jobs) and that the economy, boosted by the lack of internal restrictions because we are Covid-free, has reacted better than any of us expected.

 

Edited to add:  I can't really see the problems in manufacturing that some have been claiming.   There are 29 on JSA in the manufacturing sector - compared to 10 last year (and 15 vacancies).  Clearly an increase, but not massively so.  Manufacturing was always exempt from Coronavirus restrictions, so any shutdowns would have been due to external factors.

Edited September 2, 2020 by Roger Mexico

[Southfork]

2 hours ago, TheTeapot said:

Taking the Southfork approach of just making shit up eh? I haven't said the economy is booming, just that it seems to be doing pretty well all things considered, I mean most of the world shut down. And there are quite a lot of jobs, I am genuinely surprised at how things have gone. You are so preposterously negative. 

Your extreme form of Covid lunacy seems to be properly boiling over now. What’s wrong with debating the merits (or not) of opening the borders? This whole forum seems to be like a big self fueling exercise in spreading mass hysteria. Maybe you should go back to work to give you something else to think about rather your brain throwing up more of the woeful and hysterical covid rubbish you post on this forum? 

Edited September 2, 2020 by Southfork

[Southfork]

6 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

So not everyone on MERA will automatically become unemployed when the scheme ends.

I didn’t suggest that would be the case just that they aren’t currently counted in the jobless figures so who knows what is the true number but it’s certainly higher than the unemployment stats published. 

[TheTeapot]

6 minutes ago, Southfork said:

 extreme ... lunacy ... boiling ... mass hysteria ... hysterical rubbish

Awesome. You're special.

[Roger Mexico]

3 minutes ago, Southfork said:

I didn’t suggest that would be the case just that they aren’t currently counted in the jobless figures so who knows what is the true number but it’s certainly higher than the unemployment stats published. 

I don't think anyone doubts that there will be some, but it may be less than many fear.  It wouldn't surprise me to see the JSA figures go up in August (those 300 students will still be on the books), but a lot of people are using MERA as a cushion - which is fair enough because that's what it was intended to be.

[Andy Onchan]

18 minutes ago, Southfork said:

I didn’t suggest that would be the case just that they aren’t currently counted in the jobless figures so who knows what is the true number but it’s certainly higher than the unemployment stats published. 

You must have known Roger would come along and dispel your assertion that there are several thousand on MERA, shirley? Even if you add the jobless numbers to the MERA numbers you still wouldn't get to several thousand. 

[Cambon]

1 hour ago, Banker said:

Another one who knows nothing of the problems the wider economy is having, a few busy pubs etc is not the economy and is in fact a very small part. Come the winter those pubs will be empty ex weekend.

jersey opened up more to allow more freedom and business travel which is the reason Guernsey are also moving in that direction 

Busy pubs are a sign of people spending money. For two months, people were being paid with little to spend it on, save for a few bits from Amazon, etc. Most people are back to work. Everyone I know who was on MERA are back to work. None are unemployed. In fact, I don't know anyone whom has lost their job on IOM as a result of Covid. Houses are selling. People are buying furniture. Currys have virtually no stock, it all sold.  Yes, some businesses are suffering, particularly hotels. But the economy is ticking over nicely. 

You are the one scaremongering and making things up. 

[Banker]

3 minutes ago, Cambon said:

Busy pubs are a sign of people spending money. For two months, people were being paid with little to spend it on, save for a few bits from Amazon, etc. Most people are back to work. Everyone I know who was on MERA are back to work. None are unemployed. In fact, I don't know anyone whom has lost their job on IOM as a result of Covid. Houses are selling. People are buying furniture. Currys have virtually no stock, it all sold.  Yes, some businesses are suffering, particularly hotels. But the economy is ticking over nicely. 

You are the one scaremongering and making things up. 

Well let’s see what unemployment is like in 2 months if borders still closed and how the pubs are doing.

and currys along with many others can’t get stock which is why they haven’t got much in, same with parts and raw materials for other businesses 

[Cambon]

1 minute ago, Banker said:

Well let’s see what unemployment is like in 2 months if borders still closed and how the pubs are doing.

and currys along with many others can’t get stock which is why they haven’t got much in, same with parts and raw materials for other businesses 

The border is not closed. Unemployment in two months time will be a similar level to now, give or take a hundred. B&B are getting six containers a week and cannot keep up with demand. Currys have supply problems on a few items but cannot keep stock. 

As I said a good while ago, expect to go to 7 days and test from next week. 

[Neil Down]

12 minutes ago, Banker said:

Well let’s see what unemployment is like in 2 months if borders still closed and how the pubs are doing.

and currys along with many others can’t get stock which is why they haven’t got much in, same with parts and raw materials for other businesses 

are you in a "speshul" gang with southfork?

[TheTeapot]

I note Southfork has once again edited his post to add a slightly more reasonable bit. Does this a lot.

Debating the border restrictions is of course a good thing. I welcome it, and it is clear that progress of a kind does need to be made. The uncertainty of the wait is not helpful. Unfortunately the 3 main 'get em open' posters on here are not interested in debate. Nom de plume thinks it's a hoax, banker makes stuff up and Southfork just throws out abuse at me for being an extremist when really I'm not. Most of my posts on the virus have in my view been fairly considered an reasonable.

I think that the current restrictions on the border, designed to minimize risk partly by discouraging unnecessary travel in a global pandemic, are kind of ok. I'd like to see a stronger testing regime for arrivals, and through that a reduction in quarantine time and I suspect that will be being worked on. Communication from our government could of course be better, on everything but especially on things people are being asked to make sacrifices for.

You can travel at the moment, you've just got to jump through some hoops. No one has made a compelling case for change in my view. If you've got one I'd very much like to hear it, I am always willing to change my mind on things I am still learning about.

But hey, just call me a hysterical covid mentalist instead yeah?

Edited September 2, 2020 by TheTeapot

[Banker]

1 hour ago, TheTeapot said:

I note Southfork has once again edited his post to add a slightly more reasonable bit. Does this a lot.

Debating the border restrictions is of course a good thing. I welcome it, and it is clear that progress of a kind does need to be made. The uncertainty of the wait is not helpful. Unfortunately the 3 main 'get em open' posters on here are not interested in debate. Nom de plume thinks it's a hoax, banker makes stuff up and Southfork just throws out abuse at me for being an extremist when really I'm not. Most of my posts on the virus have in my view been fairly considered an reasonable.

I think that the current restrictions on the border, designed to minimize risk partly by discouraging unnecessary travel in a global pandemic, are kind of ok. I'd like to see a stronger testing regime for arrivals, and through that a reduction in quarantine time and I suspect that will be being worked on. Communication from our government could of course be better, on everything but especially on things people are being asked to make sacrifices for.

You can travel at the moment, you've just got to jump through some hoops. No one has made a compelling case for change in my view. If you've got one I'd very much like to hear it, I am always willing to change my mind on things I am still learning about.

But hey, just call me a hysterical covid mentalist instead yeah?

The only person who makes things up is you plus cambon , anyway despite what the pitch fork brigade say Howie will announce changes tomorrow with promises of more to come. The Government are also coming to realize that we can't stay in Brigadoon forever and we have to move on like all the countries around us are if we wish to save the economy and jobs.

 

[Neil Down]

37 minutes ago, Banker said:

The only person who makes things up is you plus cambon , anyway despite what the pitch fork brigade say Howie will announce changes tomorrow with promises of more to come. The Government are also coming to realize that we can't stay in Brigadoon forever and we have to move on like all the countries around us are if we wish to save the economy and jobs.

 

Wrong...

[Cambon]

33 minutes ago, Banker said:

The only person who makes things up is you plus cambon , anyway despite what the pitch fork brigade say Howie will announce changes tomorrow with promises of more to come. The Government are also coming to realize that we can't stay in Brigadoon forever and we have to move on like all the countries around us are if we wish to save the economy and jobs.

 

Save the economy and jobs? Let's see, the population is 84000, of which around half are economically active, so 42000. 10000 are public servants who have been on full pay throughout, leaving 32,000. Half of them are office workers who were originally working from home on full pay (myself included), leaving 16000. Half of those were essential workers (supermarkets deliveries, hardware, repairs, etc. ), leaving 8000. Half of them were builders and tradesmen, restaurant and other workers who were allowed back early, leaving 4000. Half of them worked in pubs and shops and businesses that were non essential, leaving 2000. Those 2000 are yet to go back to work as they are in tourism and hospitality. Half of them are looking for jobs the others are on MERA. Once that stops, they will find work quickly. 

[Southfork]

4 hours ago, Andy Onchan said:

You must have known Roger would come along and dispel your assertion that there are several thousand on MERA, shirley? Even if you add the jobless numbers to the MERA numbers you still wouldn't get to several thousand. 

Alf Cannan was attributed as saying “over 2,000” not long ago so that’s where I got the figure from.