IOM Covid removing restrictions

[P.K.]

20 minutes ago, Banker said:

Yes , no system is perfect but I still think we should allow families to visit here as long as they follow existing restrictions . We also need some planning as to what we do if no vaccine available until say October 2021

The borders are totally porous to residents because they have somewhere to self-isolate. Personally I think having non-residents self-isolating in a household with, say, kids going to school is a risk too far.

So maybe family members if there's a Stalag Comis and a test in the first 8 days. Just my preference as there's nothing stopping folks going the other way. Other than their personal preferences around lifestyle, school hols etc etc of course.

They're looking at a sort-of Stage 3. I guess we'll find out what innovative thinking the Comin Brains Trust comes up with.

Don't get your hopes up....

[Andy Onchan]

3 hours ago, Gladys said:

With the increased testing in the UK, isn't it time for some interpretation of the results?  Originally, there would have been a high skew of postive symptomatic tests, because testing was limited to those admitted to hospital and similar high risk situations, so the predominance of positives could be expected to be higher.

With broader testing, is there anything to be learnt:-

A. About the spread in the general populace.

B. Of those, how many are symptomatic and how many have infected others.

C. Of those symptomatic, how many are requiring hospital admission.

D. Of those, how many are in ITU.

E. How many have died as a direct result of covid or have had covid as a major intervening factor in other health issues which have caused death.

F.  Of those 'recovered', how many are suffering longer term health issues caused by the disease.

It is only then that we can understand what the real likelihood and risk of contracting the disease might be.  Classic risk management duo of likelihood and impact. 

All of which takes time to evaluate if the results are to have any meaning.

[Banker]

12 minutes ago, P.K. said:

The borders are totally porous to residents because they have somewhere to self-isolate. Personally I think having non-residents self-isolating in a household with, say, kids going to school is a risk too far.

So maybe family members if there's a Stalag Comis and a test in the first 8 days. Just my preference as there's nothing stopping folks going the other way. Other than their personal preferences around lifestyle, school hols etc etc of course.

They're looking at a sort-of Stage 3. I guess we'll find out what innovative thinking the Comin Brains Trust comes up with.

Don't get your hopes up....

Well there are issues stopping them going the other way if they’re elderly or infirm like my parents who would like to see grandchildren in person this year.

Those residents coming back are not all following guidelines either despite what some say, near neighbours went away, came back and live with parents and they were out in garden with young child who didn’t travel and their parents. No doubt having meals together inside 

No suggestion of social distancing from anyone, child went to nursery every day even though parents at home and the grandparents went to work every day and one of thems a school teacher at balla.

i wasn’t sure of law for households or may have reported and still not sure as doesn’t apply to us

Edited October 3, 2020 by Banker

[TheTeapot]

1 hour ago, Banker said:

Or opt for the 7 day test if eligible, but the main thing is they let families in.

just returned from testing, not the most pleasant experience. However the staff were extremely pleasant and talked through process. Said may get a call later this evening with results or call after 9am tomorrow.

the test was about 5 1/2 days after returning Sunday night. Seemed busy at test centre with 2 cars in front & 4 behind.

Why have you had a test after 5.5 days? Have you got symptoms?

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

3 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

Both these things are mostly wrong.  While most people indeed don't pass on the virus to anyone else (a point I've made on here in the past) it's not the vast majority more like 60-70% and 20-30% do give it to someone else.  This is actually true of a lot of diseases - I think some people forget that R(0) is an average and not a very meaningful one.

And people are getting confused about 'super-spreaders'.  This doesn't relate to individuals but to events or situations.  If a lot of people are packed close together indoor and engaging in behaviour that spreads the virus rapidly such as singing, shouting etc (such as a crowded pub, choir practice or signing hymns) or just over a prolonged period (such as on a ship) then a very high percentage of them will get infected.  There's nothing special about the individual that starts the infection, they're just in the wrong place with the wrong virus.

They're not both wrong at all Roger.

There's no confusion over super spreaders at all.  Some people simply won't pass it on.  Some will pass it on multiply.

Large organised events are a different debate.  But again, it's likely to be a small percentage impacting many people.

[P.K.]

15 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Why have you had a test after 5.5 days? Have you got symptoms?

Sunday arrival is Day 1.

Saturday is Day 7 hence test.

[Banker]

20 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Why have you had a test after 5.5 days? Have you got symptoms?

No , returned Sunday at 10pm which counts Day 1, today is day 7 and test at 12.00 so it’s not 7 days in between but day 7 .

[TheTeapot]

OK. Sounds pretty relaxed then, I don't see what anyone can find to complain about. Current test turnaround is about 6 hours too.

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

You should be free to do anything after a negative day 7 test.  

[TheTeapot]

6 minutes ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

You should be free to do anything after a negative day 7 test.  

Anything? 

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

3 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Anything? 

Yes. Unrestricted movement etc.  Rather than the current rules for the remaining 7 days.

[thesultanofsheight]

2 hours ago, monasqueen said:

Guernsey may be allowing UK residents in, but only if they self isolate for 14 days. Not many people will be taking them up on that.

For families it’s a sensible practical solution. 

[Cambon]

 

Incubation period

The incubation period for COVID-19 is thought to extend to 14 days, with a median time of 4-5 days from exposure to symptoms onset.1-3 One study reported that 97.5% of persons with COVID-19 who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of SARS-CoV-2 infection.3

WHO state the incubation time of 2-10 days. China and USA state 2-14 days. The above states a median time of 4-5 days. 7 days and test was brought in the chances of developing symptoms after 7 days are very low. I think the figure was 85% of people develop symptoms within 7 days.. 14 days is 98%. 10 days is 96%.

I think that an extra 2% risk for 4 days less isolation is a risk worth taking. You could say going from 98% to 96% is doubling the risk. But with figures that low, I would consider it safe. 

[Cambon]

6 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

Because of the very thing you mention - it's not 100%.  This means that the chance of an infected person getting through is very dependant on the level of infection of the place they are coming from.

Suppose you have 4000 people arriving per week (Jersey had around 6500 per week over the last three months).  Suppose the infection rate is 20 in 100,000 - the nominally low rate.  That means in ten weeks 8 infected people would arrive and if the test(s) picked up 95% in those ten weeks there would only be a 40% chance of an infected person getting into the community.

But suppose the infection rate is 1000 per 100,000 (ie 1 in 100) 40 people per week will be arriving and at 95% efficiency, 2 of them will be undetected.  While not every infected person will put the virus into the community, the odds of it happening over several weeks will be high.  This is why Jersey and Guernsey insist on automatic 14 days isolation for people from high-risk areas (whatever their test says) and more stringent regulation on those from medium-risk ones.  And why the Isle of Man is foolish not to (no doubt it's too complicated for the poor dears).

The above post replies to this.

[Lagman]

On 10/2/2020 at 2:01 PM, thesultanofsheight said:

I think added to that people from across don’t know how insular it is here and how a good percentage of the population just seem to have turned into covid frenzied curtain-twitchers just waiting to drop people in the shit.

A - Who cares what people from across think?

B - Compare here to there, if you hadn't noticed those insular Roston Vassey type places have seemingly handled the virus pretty well and across is teeming with it becuase morons won't seem to isolate.