IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Declan]

I think it's too far down the track to expect the Manx Government to start taking a risk based approach to the borders. They stoked the climate of fear of the disease - the tough sentencing for any breach, each trumpeted by a  delighted social media post by IOM Constabulary, the fanfare of the Chief Minister announcing each case fund in isolation. So any suggestion of loosening borders controls gets a hysterical reaction on facebook.

Meanwhile, the government is seen as having managed the crisis well. But based on what? Manx people abiding by the lockdown in March and April got rid of the virus, and it's only because we're an Island it hasn't returned. If it does are they prepared? Will the track and trace system hold up...can Nobles cope ... are the care homes process in place now? Even if it can cope, the hysterical brigade will turn and blame them for any infection. They can't turn around and say that low level infection is to be expected and can be dealt with - because they've been encouraging the mob for months.

And there's the election next year. As that draws nearer quite a few re-election campaigns rest on the Island staying Covid free until then.

[P.K.]

42 minutes ago, Gladys said:

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is what we call a volte face!

Hardly. The "we" being....?

It's just being aware of all the aspects in play here.

Unlike some...

[thesultanofsheight]

10 minutes ago, Declan said:

They can't turn around and say that low level infection is to be expected and can be dealt with - because they've been encouraging the mob for months.

Agree 100% we’re now backed into a corner waiting for the island to go into a total meltdown the second the inevitable first community case returns. The only thing a bubble can do is noisily pop. 

[Roger Mexico]

5 hours ago, trmpton said:

“Contact tracing” Do they know who was in Tesco?

https://www.three.fm/news/isle-of-man-news/prison-visits-suspended-following-covid-19-case/?fbclid=IwAR1EpraT2x_2b3xl8D9O8YtGIqW5xeUBwkOLKdVRfyBG0fOHOie8jihVtcI

Contact tracing only really applies to those who have had 15 minutes close contact with someone.  So unless they had pilled their trolleys high and a particularly slow check-out operator, it's unlikely anyone in Tesco would have qualified.

The purpose of contact tracing isn't to pick up on everyone who an infected person might have passed the virus onto, but just those where infection is most likely to happen.  It's a percentages game, like all disease control.  That doesn't mean that they couldn't have infected a casual contact and explains why it's not possible to only rely on track and trace to suppress or even control an outbreak, you need other measures as well.

5 hours ago, John Wright said:

Lots of countries are requiring testing within the 72 hours before arrival. As @rachomicssays it seems odd and can give a false sense of security absent further measures and follow up. Lots of countries are using 10, rather than 14 day quarantine.

John, your earlier post on your experiences travelling gave the reason why these pre-tests aren't worth the paper they're written on.  And that nobody looks at.  They're the sort of measure that governments pass when they want to be see doing 'something' (no doubt supported by lobbying from those who would benefit financially).  But they won't pick up anyone who has the early stages of the virus or who contracts it while waiting for the results or travelling and they're open to abuse.

Obviously arrival testing is a bit better than that and it does mean that those who test positive and their close contacts[1] are even more aware of the dangers[2] and can be strictly isolated and an eye kept on them in case they fall seriously ill.  But some infected passengers will not be detected and later tests may not pick them up either if done too soon after. 

Modelling from the LSHTM group suggests a quarantine period of 8 days on arrival with a PCR test on day 7 (with a 1-day delay for test results) can reduce the number of infectious arrivals released into the community by a median 94% compared to a no quarantine, no test scenario.   They say This reduction is similar to that achieved by a 14-day quarantine period (median 99% reduction), but that is still one extra infected person in 20 getting through.  Again the risk depends on how prevalent the infection is in the incoming travellers.  But the current Manx strategy is riskier than either of these if no further restrictions are put on those getting a negative test.

 

[1]  Jersey's fans don't seem to realise that 'guilt by association' means that about 8 people end up having to do the 14-day isolation for every positive test.  Even if you're coming from a Green area, you might get quarantined because you sit near someone on the plane.

[2]  Two-thirds of Jersey's positive cases come from Green areas - ie the sort of people who could expect to operate under lesser restrictions after a negative result.

[Nom de plume]

So I'm trying to still understand why the Jersey model cannot be adopted here as it seems to be the middle ground that the pitchfork brigade and the open up movement can meet at half way.

Jersey are yet to record a single hospital admission after conducting 105,000 tests since July 1st.

That's three months, not one person hospitalised. The figures are speaking for themselves.

Yes, there are compromises. Mask wearing shopping & on public transport, restricted gatherings and safe distancing being practiced BUT it is working in the context that the IOM Government decided to close us down in order to protect the NHS. That WAS the reason.

We need to find the middle ground that we can all live with. The virus is not going away.

Edited October 5, 2020 by Nom de plume

[Nom de plume]

Two more cases today.

[Barlow]

13 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

So I'm trying to still understand why the Jersey model cannot be adopted here as it seems to be the middle ground that the pitchfork brigade and the open up movement can meet at half way.

You make a fair enough point but your language is too emotive. Instead of "pitchfork brigade" why not say "careful people" and instead of "open up movement" you could say "self-centred barstards" 

It's not what I think but it is just a thought

Edited October 5, 2020 by Barlow

[Nom de plume]

Just now, Barlow said:

You make a fair enough point but your language is too emotive. Instead of "pitchfork brigade" why not say "careful people" and instead of "open up movement" you could say "self-centred barstards" 

My apologies, the point remains the same.

If I were in CoMin (Ha) I'd be watching their situation very closely in the lead up to Christmas. If the pattern remains we must surely be looking to put a similar plan into place within the first few weeks of the New Year.

[Andy Onchan]

My feeling is that by the time we get to Christmas most of the Uni folk will have had it and shed it. What the antibody situation will be though remains to be seen. 

[CHERRYSCONE]

5 hours ago, Banker said:

Must be different in each area, this was southern start last week 

2 friends got flu jabs at Ballasalla drop in session last week;  partner made appointment for flu  jab earlier at Castletown surgery for next week.

[CHERRYSCONE]

Was surprised that Australia still has citizens who have been stuck abroad for months because of the lack of capacity in the centres where they must stay for the 14 day quarantine:

"Australia has strict border measures in place to protect the health of the Australian community. Very limited flights are currently available to and from Australia and you may not be able to travel at this time. Travel restrictions are subject to change. Please check back regularly. See: National Cabinet media statement.

All travellers arriving in Australia, including Australian citizens, must quarantine for 14 days at a designated facility, such as a hotel in their port of arrival. See Coronavirus (COVID-19) advice for travellers. You may be required to pay for the costs of your quarantine."

Even those wanting to leave Australia are subject to restrictions: https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/leaving-australia

[Roger Mexico]

27 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

Two more cases today.

Not in the prison either by the look of it:

Quote

Two new cases of COVID-19 have been detected in the Isle of Man. It follows tests on two returning Isle of Man residents who developed symptoms of COVID-19 during self-isolation. Both individuals remain in self-isolation and are the only members of their household.

(my bold). The prison one announced separately earlier on.

This is what you would expect of course.  The higher rate in the UK means that those coming from there are more likely to be infected.  Of course that means we should be tightening up regulations on those coming in not relaxing them.

[Banker]

38 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

Two more cases today.

Both in those self isolating and living alone , total active cases only 4.

[Derek Flint]

45 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

So I'm trying to still understand why the Jersey model cannot be adopted here as it seems to be the middle ground that the pitchfork brigade and the open up movement can meet at half way.

Jersey are yet to record a single hospital admission after conducting 105,000 tests since July 1st.

That's three months, not one person hospitalised. The figures are speaking for themselves.

Yes, there are compromises. Mask wearing shopping & on public transport, restricted gatherings and safe distancing being practiced BUT it is working in the context that the IOM Government decided to close us down in order to protect the NHS. That WAS the reason.

We need to find the middle ground that we can all live with. The virus is not going away.

I’d like to know the visit profile of the two returnees that tested positive, and compare it to others.

 

We were over for seven days and managed not to (symptomatically) catch it. We had a large number of meetings, all socially distanced, didn’t eat out, stayed with a relative. Crucially, we weren’t in contact with anyone we didn’t know for more than 15 minutes.

[P.K.]

10 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

Not in the prison either by the look of it:

(my bold). The prison one announced separately earlier on.

This is what you would expect of course.  The higher rate in the UK means that those coming from there are more likely to be infected.  Of course that means we should be tightening up regulations on those coming in not relaxing them.

I love the way the prisoner is "self-isolating!"

The Isle of Man....