IOM Covid removing restrictions

[trmpton]

13 minutes ago, thommo2010 said:

In the summer was the prevalence low in the UK? In the run up to summer we were saying around 4/5k cases a day with 500-1000 deaths. We are now seeing close to 20,000 daily cases but deaths around 50/75. So that raises the question has it mutated into something less harmful or was it always out there in many more people but due to the lack of testing this wasn't picked up. I would say the latter

It’s definitely the latter, but the scaremongers don’t want people to even think about that so shhhhhh

[HeliX]

2 minutes ago, trmpton said:

But you would have known she had it, and so would she, so you could have made an informed decision.

That’s exactly the point.  The vast majority of people don’t even know they have it.

Of course it’s true.  People sleep with their partners the day before someone tests positive.  Loads of those people (most? I can’t be arsed googling it) will never produce a positive test themselves

I suppose if you're including asymptomatic and pre-sympomatic/pre-contagious people in it it's probably true. I didn't think that was what it implied when I read it though.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

16 minutes ago, thommo2010 said:

In the summer was the prevalence low in the UK? In the run up to summer we were saying around 4/5k cases a day with 500-1000 deaths. We are now seeing close to 20,000 daily cases but deaths around 50/75. So that raises the question has it mutated into something less harmful or was it always out there in many more people but due to the lack of testing this wasn't picked up. I would say the latter

esting became much more widespread over that period, capacity has grown from 100k a day in May to around 200k a day since June, with a steady increase then. Tests per day completed have varied by around 10-20% since the capacity really got up in August. Test positivity in the UK has raised to 8% on some days in the past week or so, the WHO define it as out of control by 5%. So it's definitely in a much worse spot than it was.

Hospitalizations are another good metric, and they were falling for a long time.

Look at the deaths and hospital figures now, they're rocketing up again. Liverpool is claiming they're about to run out of ICU beds.

Edited October 15, 2020 by AcousticallyChallenged

[Andy Onchan]

3 hours ago, wrighty said:

If we were to get community transmission here, knowing what we do now, with enough testing capability that we have, we could manage the situation without a full lockdown and get on with things with minimal interference I think.

Does that mean we will have the segregated 2m distancing for the aged and key workers queuing outside the shops again, like we did earlier in the year?

Edited October 15, 2020 by Andy Onchan
Much more betterer grammar... sort of.

[Gladys]

16 minutes ago, HeliX said:

Is that true? I suppose it's vague enough that it could be true. Coronavirus' r0 isn't far off Norovirus r0, and I sure as shit (pun intended) wouldn't share a bed with the missus if she had noro...

I think Wrighty posted something about the transmission being low, but whether that is because people are fully isolating, or it is not always easily transmissible wasn't clear.

[trmpton]

5 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

esting became much more widespread over that period, capacity has grown from 100k a day in May to around 200k a day since June, with a steady increase then. Tests per day completed have varied by around 10-20% since the capacity really got up in August. Test positivity in the UK has raised to 8% on some days in the past week or so, the WHO define it as out of control by 5%. So it's definitely in a much worse spot than it was.

Hospitalizations are another good metric, and they were falling for a long time.

Look at the deaths and hospital figures now, they're rocketing up again. Liverpool is claiming they're about to run out of ICU beds.

When do Liverpool normally run out of ICU beds because it happens most Autumns doesn’t it?

[Banker]

40 minutes ago, Dave Hedgehog said:

Our media will probably just ask questions about whether they can still hold dinner parties this weekend.

Most of media will be congratulating Ashie in his gong rather than ask questions 

[Neil Down]

1 hour ago, Banker said:

Guernsey cracking on with phase 5c so testing on arrival and reduced quarantine, bring that in here and a few on here will be having fits!!

https://guernseypress.com/news/2020/10/15/revised-phase-5c-plans-revealed/

wonder if Howie will have a plan today 😂

The only ones on here having fits are you and your bezzie. The majority of people stopped taking notice of this thread over 400 pages ago.

Edited October 15, 2020 by Neil Down

[Banker]

Just now, Neil Down said:

The only ones on here having fits are you and your bessie. The majority of people stopped taking notice of this thread over 400 pages ago.

Watch out troll alert from Covid Mary who wants no plans, expect your mate Cambon on soon as only one who likes your posts 😂

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

1 hour ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

That's been the next logical step for a while I reckon. I was lucky enough on return to be able to isolate entirely separately with my own bathroom. But a lot of people can't very easily. Anything shared is pushing luck.

They aren't really.  That's overly paranoid nonsense. 

[Cambon]

1 hour ago, Banker said:

Yes ! Howie will be sweating in case someone asks him how his mates in Guernsey can come up with a feasible plan and he can’t 

I don't think so since virtually every area people can fly in from is cat 3 or 4. Including Jersey. 

[Roger Mexico]

27 minutes ago, thommo2010 said:

In the summer was the prevalence low in the UK? In the run up to summer we were saying around 4/5k cases a day with 500-1000 deaths. We are now seeing close to 20,000 daily cases but deaths around 50/75. So that raises the question has it mutated into something less harmful or was it always out there in many more people but due to the lack of testing this wasn't picked up. I would say the latter

And you'd be wrong.  The best indication for what the general prevalence is in the UK (though it excludes Scotland) is the ONS Infection Survey pilot which is based on their regular household surveys (for other matters).  So it's as near to a random sample of the population as you can get and shouldn't be affected by the number of tests available generally[1]. 

It only started in May, but it shows a pattern of low levels in July and August and a steep rise since:

Note that the dates are the end of each 14-day period so there will be no October data there.  But it will be even higher.  

As far as deaths go, you have to remember these are a 'lagging indicator'  because there's an average of several weeks between infection and death - particularly if the patient is able to get intensive care treatment.   So a rise in cases will only be echoed by a rise in deaths a lot later.  Unfortunately this now seems to be happening.  The last two days show 143 and 137 deaths.  And the numbers in hospital have been steadily increasing:

As have the number in mechanical ventilation beds:

So while some of the increase in absolute numbers of positive tests is due to better testing, it reflects the reality that numbers are increasing and fast.

 

[1]  It will probably underestimate infection levels a bit, especially when they are high, because households that know they have an infectious member won't be likely to take part in the survey, among other reasons.

[Banker]

7 minutes ago, Cambon said:

I don't think so since virtually every area people can fly in from is cat 3 or 4. Including Jersey. 

Did you read the details!! Cat 3 is upto 100 in 100000 which is 7 days isolation if negative so that includes Jersey and a lot of southern England. When any area drops to 30 in100k it’s test on arrival then no quarantine.

our idiots are still sticking to totally unrealistic target of 20 in 100k to allow any UK arrivals. Wonder how air bridges will be impacted now Guernsey have broken ranks

[TheTeapot]

I think I'm gonna take some mushrooms

[Neil Down]

24 minutes ago, Banker said:

Watch out troll alert from Covid Mary who wants no plans, expect your mate Cambon on soon as only one who likes your posts 😂

Your response makes no sense at all. Secondly, other than on here, I have no idea who Cambon is

 

 

 

 

 

eta - after a quick check, it seems you and your mate are the ones most likely to emoji my posts, no sign of Cambon though... 

Edited October 15, 2020 by Neil Down