IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Lxxx]

17 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

Surely that's somewhat expected though? Our bodies only pump out anti-bodies when they're needed, with T-cells being responsible for longer term immunity. They detect a known threat and your body already has the blueprints for churning out antibodies.

That's my understanding. You won't have a heightened level of antibody if you're not in contact with the substance you need to generate an antibody against.

Although if your business model is based only on measuring antibodies and disregarding T-cell immunity then a twice yearly vaccine will do wonders for shareholder profit.

[Barlow]

3 hours ago, Derek Flint said:

 

But how long is a closed loop economy sustainable for?

There is without doubt a bit of an internal boom going on at present. 

Decades?

There is a lot of cash swilling about over here. And consider the worth of a pound spent and re-spent locally as opposed to spending straight off-Island.

At some stage though, the fundamental economy would collapse ie you can't live off a suitcase of £20 notes, but a few herrings, a pan of spuds and a loaf will do nicely thank you. A bit extreme, but there you go.

 

Edited October 27, 2020 by Barlow

[Andy Onchan]

4 hours ago, Derek Flint said:

 

But how long is a closed loop economy sustainable for?

There is without doubt a bit of an internal boom going on at present. 

egaming at al.

[Non-Believer]

32 minutes ago, Barlow said:

Decades?

There is a lot of cash swilling about over here. And consider the worth of a pound spent and re-spent locally as opposed to spending straight off-Island.

 

Unless one is living on locally grown spuds, carrots, mutton and moots, driving a similarly fuelled horse and cart, dressing in fleeces and skins from the mutton provider and scratching your admin on pieces of slate from South Barrule - then virtually every commodity you buy, use, eat or wear is coming from off-Island.

Meaning that money is exported off-Island in order to pay for it all, multiplied by 80k residents and whatever number of businesses. So at least that amount has to be attracted back on by some means or other in order to balance the equation.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Non-Believer
Typo

[Out of the blue]

24 minutes ago, Non-Believer said:

Unless one is living on locally grown spuds, carrots, mutton and moots, driving a similarly fuelled horse and cart, dressing in fleeces and skins from the mutton provider and scratching your admin on pieces of slate from South Barrule - then virtually every commodity you buy, use or wear is coming from off-Island.

Meaning that money is exported off-Island in order to pay for it all, multiplied by 80k residents and whatever number of businesses. So at least that amount has to be attracted back on by some means or other in order to balance the equation.

It is not a one way street, there is and always will be a lot of outflow, but there is plenty of new money/income, even at this time. In simplistic terms, outward facing businesses, i.e. finance, e-gaming etc bring in money to the island which is distributed to employees via salaries, and also to other local businesses in the course of their day to day operations. This money is spent by the employees or taken via taxed by the government. This spend is either directly benefitting the local economy, or in the case of online shopping compensated for to some extent by our VAT agreement. I am guessing that the proportion of this money being spent locally has increased markedly, maybe by more than our tourists would have otherwise generated (excluding TT week). It will not be helping the hotels, but anecdotally, from my dealing with several different local businesses, they are experiencing booming trade. The only concern they see coming down the line is shortage of stock caused by manufacturing in other countries working at half capacity.

[Non-Believer]

Even if it is spent locally, the wage money that is spent by employees is spent on more off-Island sourced goods. The only money that is retained on a sale is the profit margin, because most of the rest goes back to the goods supplier and transport costs. That margin helps to pay wages and taxes but it's a tiny amount relatively speaking. And it's mostly duly further spent on off-Island goods. The money may swirl around the economy for a while but ultimately it's exported via commodity/goods purchases from off-Island, like water going down a plughole. We make and are self-sufficient in virtually nothing and have to import and pay for virtually everything. As well as financing a huge Governmental machine.

The only things currently propping up our economy are the takes from the VAT agreement and from E-gaming and the finance sector. Only Treasury can know if that's enough.

[Cambon]

18 minutes ago, Non-Believer said:

 

The only things currently propping up our economy are the takes from the VAT agreement and from E-gaming and the finance sector. Only Treasury can know if that's enough.

Sorry, but the income from the private pensions of many thousands of elderly, their savings and investments count for a hell of a lot of the Islands economy. 

[Non-Believer]

18 minutes ago, Cambon said:

Sorry, but the income from the private pensions of many thousands of elderly, their savings and investments count for a hell of a lot of the Islands economy. 

Govt pensions? Funded by a growing blackhole? And what are those pensions spent on - where does that money go?

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

58 minutes ago, Non-Believer said:

Even if it is spent locally, the wage money that is spent by employees is spent on more off-Island sourced goods. The only money that is retained on a sale is the profit margin, because most of the rest goes back to the goods supplier and transport costs. That margin helps to pay wages and taxes but it's a tiny amount relatively speaking. And it's mostly duly further spent on off-Island goods. The money may swirl around the economy for a while but ultimately it's exported via commodity/goods purchases from off-Island, like water going down a plughole. We make and are self-sufficient in virtually nothing and have to import and pay for virtually everything. As well as financing a huge Governmental machine.

The only things currently propping up our economy are the takes from the VAT agreement and from E-gaming and the finance sector. Only Treasury can know if that's enough.

Takes from the VAT agreement isnt " propping anything up".  It's something we're entitled to and reflects resident spent off island too.

Egaming and Finance Sector are not propping up the economy either.  They ARE the economy.  It isn't a temporary position.

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

18 minutes ago, Non-Believer said:

Govt pensions? Funded by a growing blackhole? And what are those pensions spent on - where does that money go?

I'm not sure the black hole is growing.

[Max Power]

55 minutes ago, Non-Believer said:

Even if it is spent locally, the wage money that is spent by employees is spent on more off-Island sourced goods. The only money that is retained on a sale is the profit margin, because most of the rest goes back to the goods supplier and transport costs. That margin helps to pay wages and taxes but it's a tiny amount relatively speaking. And it's mostly duly further spent on off-Island goods. The money may swirl around the economy for a while but ultimately it's exported via commodity/goods purchases from off-Island, like water going down a plughole. We make and are self-sufficient in virtually nothing and have to import and pay for virtually everything. As well as financing a huge Governmental machine.

The only things currently propping up our economy are the takes from the VAT agreement and from E-gaming and the finance sector. Only Treasury can know if that's enough.

That is correct, but don't forget that the tax take is generated by spending on the island by residents and visitors. It's in the interests of government to find ways to encourage spending on goods, services and entertainment. This in turn creates jobs and subsequent taxation.

32 minutes ago, Cambon said:

Sorry, but the income from the private pensions of many thousands of elderly, their savings and investments count for a hell of a lot of the Islands economy. 

I think that this is often forgotten when people think of the elderly as non productive. Their taxable investments and pensions contribute in no small way to the economy. Government pensions do come into this calculation too, although they'll never breach the black hole.

[Non-Believer]

13 minutes ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

I'm not sure the black hole is growing.

Almost £4Bn total liability at the last release and rising.

[Non-Believer]

18 minutes ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

Takes from the VAT agreement isnt " propping anything up".  It's something we're entitled to and reflects resident spent off island too.

Egaming and Finance Sector are not propping up the economy either.  They ARE the economy.  It isn't a temporary position.

Typical CS play on words deflection. And if Egaming and the Finance Sector, both of them easily transportable and potentially transient, ARE the economy (your words) that's a lot of eggs in one basket?

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

26 minutes ago, Non-Believer said:

Almost £4Bn total liability at the last release and rising.

That's a basic misunderstanding of the position and it's been explained before but clearly you haven't listened.

That number is an arbitrary actuarial number that basically says if we had to pay up every single pension liability of every scheme member(present and future payments until death), and we had to have the lot in a fund to do it today, how much are we short?

The answer is we will always " be short"  because there isn't a fund.  It's unfunded. At the same time there isn't ever going to be a scenario where we have to have it all available today.

The pertinent numbers are actually what it costs per year to fund and can it be met?.  That's all that really matters.  So that figure is the cost of that years liabilities, minus the contributions from employees.  Which is met from general revenue with a top up from reserves.

Clearly that is a slightly different discussion because there is a problem coming up there.   But the 4bn number is simply sensationalist rubbish. At best.

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

32 minutes ago, Non-Believer said:

Typical CS play on words deflection. And if Egaming and the Finance Sector, both of them easily transportable and potentially transient, ARE the economy (your words) that's a lot of eggs in one basket?

well if you're insinuating I am a civil servant you are miles away.   Miles.

I'm not sure the IOM has ever not had all it's eggs in one basket?  Farming and Fishing, tourism, finance.

People have been saying about how the finance sector can " go overnight " for well over 30 years.  It's still here.  Over those 30 years or so there have been enormous changes.  But it is still here.  EGaming has been growing (although it'll need to continue to offset what is coming with Stars I suspect).