IOM Covid removing restrictions

[trmpton]

9th case identified in Guernsey yesterday, already in isolation as part of track and trace from first case.

Is the government there panicking?  Nope, same day that move to level 5c of their published framework which means the launch of a new web portal that takes details of people’s travel history and implements testing on arrival to the Island.

Fingers crossed Howard has some news on a structured way forward this afternoon, but I doubt it.  Guess it will be more doom and gloom from our “near neighbours” and no change in the pipeline and no actual roadmap laid out.

Hope I am wrong as there appears to be a growing level of disdain towards the apparent total lack of an actual strategy to get us back to anywhere near a workable borders policy.

[Nellie]

2 hours ago, trmpton said:

9th case identified in Guernsey yesterday, already in isolation as part of track and trace from first case.

Is the government there panicking?  Nope, same day that move to level 5c of their published framework which means the launch of a new web portal that takes details of people’s travel history and implements testing on arrival to the Island.

Fingers crossed Howard has some news on a structured way forward this afternoon, but I doubt it.  Guess it will be more doom and gloom from our “near neighbours” and no change in the pipeline and no actual roadmap laid out.

Hope I am wrong as there appears to be a growing level of disdain towards the apparent total lack of an actual strategy to get us back to anywhere near a workable borders policy.

I hope I'm proved wrong later today, but there's a real risk that CoMin will just drift along, doing and changing nothing, and hiding behind the UK situation, until well into the New Year. By then,the General Election will be on the horizon, HQ will announce he won't be standing which will leave us with a zombie CM and a zombie CoMin. We'll just drift through 2021 with still no exit strategy, no plan. I hope I'm wrong, but at this time, I see no reason to expect a more optimistic way forward. 

[Lxxx]

27 minutes ago, Nellie said:

I hope I'm proved wrong later today, but there's a real risk that CoMin will just drift along, doing and changing nothing, and hiding behind the UK situation, until well into the New Year. By then,the General Election will be on the horizon, HQ will announce he won't be standing which will leave us with a zombie CM and a zombie CoMin. We'll just drift through 2021 with still no exit strategy, no plan. I hope I'm wrong, but at this time, I see no reason to expect a more optimistic way forward. 

On the flip side there really isn't any reason to rock the boat either. We're entering a period where most people aren't bothered about the border restrictions, we're winding down to Xmas and people are going about their business in a manner that the majority of the world can only dream of. The local economy is ticking over and people are generally content as they can be.

Let's not just bash them for the sake of it. We've not done too bad so far. The time to bash them is post-Xmas and their still isn't a strategy but let's wait for that day to come first.

[Andy Onchan]

32 minutes ago, Lxxx said:

On the flip side there really isn't any reason to rock the boat either. We're entering a period where most people aren't bothered about the border restrictions, we're winding down to Xmas and people are going about their business in a manner that the majority of the world can only dream of. The local economy is ticking over and people are generally content as they can be.

Let's not just bash them for the sake of it. We've not done too bad so far. The time to bash them is post-Xmas and their still isn't a strategy but let's wait for that day to come first.

If they don't have a strategy leading up to Xmas (other than a unidents staggered return) then there won't be one after Xmas either as IOMG drift along.

I'm inclined to agree with Nellie's scenario. And that scenario is worrying.

[Lxxx]

32 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said:

If they don't have a strategy leading up to Xmas (other than a unidents staggered return) then there won't be one after Xmas either as IOMG drift along.

I'm inclined to agree with Nellie's scenario. And that scenario is worrying.

We're in October. You can't bash someone for a lack of a public post-Xmas strategy when we're still in Autumn. As it happens I'm with you in not holding out much hope but let's wait for the right opportunity to criticise before we do.

[trmpton]

2 hours ago, Lxxx said:

On the flip side there really isn't any reason to rock the boat either. We're entering a period where most people aren't bothered about the border restrictions, we're winding down to Xmas and people are going about their business in a manner that the majority of the world can only dream of. The local economy is ticking over and people are generally content as they can be.

Let's not just bash them for the sake of it. We've not done too bad so far. The time to bash them is post-Xmas and their still isn't a strategy but let's wait for that day to come first.

If you think “most people aren’t bothered” then you speak to very different people to the ones I do.

Most of my regular contacts are becoming seriously annoyed that loved ones can’t come and visit even if prepared to isolate and that there is no clear road map as to how this ever changes.  They are going to have some seriously unhappy residents of family and friends can’t get here for Christmas.

I know of people out of work due to this in the UK effectively stuck in their homes because the were born here and their family are all here.  They want to isolate on return and then see family, or are happy to have family isolate with them, but are being refused travel.  That situation needs relaxing at least for people born here or who have close family and friends here.

[Andy Onchan]

6 minutes ago, Lxxx said:

We're in October. You can't bash someone for a lack of a public post-Xmas strategy when we're still in Autumn. As it happens I'm with you in not holding out much hope but let's wait for the right opportunity to criticise before we do.

From 1st November it will be 8 months (or thereabouts) since emergency laws/regulations were introduced and so if COMIN haven't formulated a plan on protecting the most vulnerable in our society by now, whilst the rest can about their business on/off Island, then we will all be screwed. Waiting for the UK to sort themselves out should not be the only option.

I haven't seen or heard anything that might suggest they actually do have a clue. Stopping the arrival testing on day 7 was a retrograde step IMO, if for no other reason than we have no data to formulate any future policy or processes on. We (they) should use every tool in the box to make a difference, not just sit idly by and hope for the best. I hope that I am wrong and COMIN are working on something in the background but from what we're being told it appears to be nowt other than "as you were".

[Lxxx]

36 minutes ago, trmpton said:

If you think “most people aren’t bothered” then you speak to very different people to the ones I do.

Most of my regular contacts are becoming seriously annoyed that loved ones can’t come and visit even if prepared to isolate and that there is no clear road map as to how this ever changes.  They are going to have some seriously unhappy residents of family and friends can’t get here for Christmas.

I know of people out of work due to this in the UK effectively stuck in their homes because the were born here and their family are all here.  They want to isolate on return and then see family, or are happy to have family isolate with them, but are being refused travel.  That situation needs relaxing at least for people born here or who have close family and friends here.

I must admit I wasn't aware that family/non-residents couldn't come over after undergoing a quarantine period. The last I heard we were looking at a phase 3a and 3b whereby they could be sponsored as long as they adhered to the same restrictions as residents. Same with business travel. Is this not the case?

[trmpton]

Agree with above.

Guernsey have implemented testing on arrival.  Doing that doesn’t have to mean an immediate end to 14 day quarantine.

However if we test everyone incoming on days 1, 5 and 14 you build a valuable dataset.

If in a few weeks 30% of people are testing positive after day 5, but not on day one, then gov have valid hard evidence to stick to 14 day isolation.

If it turns out that 99% of the people who test positive at day 5 actually tested positive on day 1 as well then you have firm data to show there is likely justification for the small risk of reducing quarantine to 7 days for anyone who tests clear on arrival etc.

Whats the harm? Other than cost and this is costing a fortune anyway.  We only have two entry points (disregarding fishing boats and parachute drops) it shouldn’t be that hard to build up a dataset that would enable us to have more faith in the reasoning behind Howard’s, sorry CoMIns decisions

 

[trmpton]

1 minute ago, Lxxx said:

I must admit I wasn't aware that family/non-residents couldn't come over after undergoing a quarantine period. The last I heard we were looking at a phase 3a and 3b whereby they could be sponsored as long as they adhered to the same restrictions as residents. Same with business travel. Is this not the case?

No.  It should have been weeks ago with strict testing and sponsorship.

We are still stuck at level 4.  Exemption certificates are being awarded to about two thirds of those who apply on “compassionate grounds” but like everything else the criteria seems to be a bit cloak and daggers with no clear guidelines as to what qualifies a person and what doesn’t - leading to the usual unrest and accusations of it being down to who you know.

Just make things transparent and the plebs will be much more complaint 

[Lxxx]

10 minutes ago, trmpton said:

No.  It should have been weeks ago with strict testing and sponsorship.

We are still stuck at level 4.  Exemption certificates are being awarded to about two thirds of those who apply on “compassionate grounds” but like everything else the criteria seems to be a bit cloak and daggers with no clear guidelines as to what qualifies a person and what doesn’t - leading to the usual unrest and accusations of it being down to who you know.

Just make things transparent and the plebs will be much more complaint 

In which case I agree completely. It makes no sense whatsoever to be letting non-essential workers over without quarantining and refusing relatives of family who agree to quarantine. 

[AcousticallyChallenged]

49 minutes ago, Lxxx said:

In which case I agree completely. It makes no sense whatsoever to be letting non-essential workers over without quarantining and refusing relatives of family who agree to quarantine. 

There were key workers coming over all through the lockdown too, they effectively have to exist entirely isolated from the rest of the island, which is how they skirt quarantine.

The only visitors we get that are family etc. are coming over for compassionate reasons.

I don't think Tynwald has an answer beyond the head in the sand approach of keeping everything shut and everyone in isolation. If we've got minimal cases at the expense of everything from data to families, the approach simply must be working. There can't be any way of doing things differently and sensibly, surely.

Heavens forbid the scandal if we had a case from someone able to come over through Level 3! Or what if the rate of COVID positive tests goes up by testing on arrival?! Would anyone think of the facebook crowd?

[piebaps]

7 hours ago, trmpton said:

Hope I am wrong as there appears to be a growing level of disdain towards the apparent total lack of an actual strategy to get us back to anywhere near a workable borders policy.

I get your circumstances trmp, but I reckon you're well off the mark here. There's a growing level of support for the 14 day IMHO. My friends and family all can't believe how fortunate we are to be able to live as we currently do.

[John Wright]

1 hour ago, piebaps said:

I get your circumstances trmp, but I reckon you're well off the mark here. There's a growing level of support for the 14 day IMHO. My friends and family all can't believe how fortunate we are to be able to live as we currently do.

That’s missing the point. Our levels and triggers for moving levels are fixed and inflexible and aren’t moving with the medical advice and the practical experience.

Of course we are lucky from the point of view of not having Covid. But it’s a cul de sac. We won’t stay Covid free forever. And when it gets here there’s potentially a bigger risk of a nasty spread, very quickly.

We can’t isolate forever. It is damaging to our economy, and the longer we stay locked up the worse it becomes. We aren’t a sealed economy. We aren’t internally self sufficient. Lots of our money gets sent off Island, to but capital goods, food, internet purchases. Something has  got to come in in return.

I suspect today will be a step backwards. If you isolate at home on return everyone in the house will also have to self isolate with you.

Whereas Guernsey are lighter on their feet. Moving forward. We step backwards. We make such a mess of repatriation of the Guernsey guests. Took them down to the airport, sat them on a plane for an hour, deplaned them. No taxis, buses wouldn’t pick them up. One guy has been demonised for trying to get on the bus. We’ve no flexibility, no compassion, no nifty footwork. And it’s all driven by the knee jerk appeasement of the pitchfork brigade.

[Lxxx]

3 minutes ago, John Wright said:

That’s missing the point. Our levels and triggers for moving levels are fixed and inflexible and aren’t moving with the medical advice and the practical experience.

Of course we are lucky from the point of view of not having Covid. But it’s a cul de sac. We won’t stay Covid free forever. And when it gets here there’s potentially a bigger risk of a nasty spread, very quickly.

We can’t isolate forever. It is damaging to our economy, and the longer we stay locked up the worse it becomes. We aren’t a sealed economy. We aren’t internally self sufficient. Lots of our money gets sent off Island, to but capital goods, food, internet purchases. Something has  got to come in in return.

I suspect today will be a step backwards. If you isolate at home on return everyone in the house will also have to self isolate with you.

Whereas Guernsey are lighter on their feet. Moving forward. We step backwards. We make such a mess of repatriation of the Guernsey guests. Took them down to the airport, sat them on a plane for an hour, deplaned them. No taxis, buses wouldn’t pick them up. One guy has been demonised for trying to get on the bus. We’ve no flexibility, no compassion, no nifty footwork. And it’s all driven by the knee jerk appeasement of the pitchfork brigade.

I hope not. If we go down this route we're shooting ourselves in the foot and it's a serious step backwards in our approach to getting through this.