IOM Covid removing restrictions

[wrighty]

A (very rough) calculation suggests to me that if the UK carry on as they are they'll have herd immunity in about 6 weeks.  Will the health service cope though, or alternatively, will measures brought in now be enough to change that trajectory.

Based on integrating a function with a doubling time of 9 days, starting with 100,000 cases per day, to find out when 2/3 of the population will have had covid, given that based on 45000 deaths to date and an IFR of 0.5% the implication is about 15% have had it so far. Might end up with 200,000 deaths.

[trmpton]

7 minutes ago, wrighty said:

A (very rough) calculation suggests to me that if the UK carry on as they are they'll have herd immunity in about 6 weeks.  Will the health service cope though, or alternatively, will measures brought in now be enough to change that trajectory.

Based on integrating a function with a doubling time of 9 days, starting with 100,000 cases per day, to find out when 2/3 of the population will have had covid, given that based on 45000 deaths to date and an IFR of 0.5% the implication is about 15% have had it so far. Might end up with 200,000 deaths.

I dare you to post that theory on one of the local fb groups 😂

[Black Mirror]

4 hours ago, wrighty said:

A (very rough) calculation suggests to me that if the UK carry on as they are they'll have herd immunity in about 6 weeks.  Will the health service cope though, or alternatively, will measures brought in now be enough to change that trajectory.

Based on integrating a function with a doubling time of 9 days, starting with 100,000 cases per day, to find out when 2/3 of the population will have had covid, given that based on 45000 deaths to date and an IFR of 0.5% the implication is about 15% have had it so far. Might end up with 200,000 deaths.

 

4 hours ago, trmpton said:

I dare you to post that theory on one of the local fb groups 😂

 

wrighty arguments are flimsy. However, a couple of days ago I saw the same conclusion on a serious scientific paper with more substantiated estimations. The UK could be on a path to achieving herd immunity in six weeks, in absence of mitigation through further restrictions.

I won't express an opinion on that specific point. Obviously it is wishful thinking that the pandemic could be over so soon. However, I believe the IFR of 0.5% to be a gross overestimation. WHO puts it at 0.3% in the world, but I believe even that to be an overestimation. We also know that at a certain point the virus stops, from the countries that have failed to contain it and from those that saw the suppression policy as futile. And that the total number of fatalities it takes to hit the herd-immunity point is well below the alarmist forecasts of the Imperial College model adopted by the UK government.

 

[doc.fixit]

FWIW his is aimed at those who wish to sacrifice my wife and I. 

I have struggled to lead as normal a life as possible for years, (I am 74), whilst trying to cope with a severe but stable lung disease. I have always practiced hand hygiene and social distancing.

However it seems that us oldies lives are worthless as is our contribution to society during our lifetime, as a number of folk wish us to be killed so that they can continue to lead their hedonistic existence, thank you.

I will carry on lying awake contemplating my horrible, painful demise from an awful disease because of other folk's selfishness. Again, thanks for my depression, my horror at what is inevitable if I catch the disease and my sleepless nights worrying about how I will deal with either my own suffering or watching my dear wife's suffering because so many in our society just don't give a shit for others. Yes, I am serious and very, very upset, and yes it is the middle of the night and no I don't drink.

[Derek Flint]

41 minutes ago, doc.fixit said:

FWIW his is aimed at those who wish to sacrifice my wife and I. 

I have struggled to lead as normal a life as possible for years, (I am 74), whilst trying to cope with a severe but stable lung disease. I have always practiced hand hygiene and social distancing.

However it seems that us oldies lives are worthless as is our contribution to society during our lifetime, as a number of folk wish us to be killed so that they can continue to lead their hedonistic existence, thank you.

I will carry on lying awake contemplating my horrible, painful demise from an awful disease because of other folk's selfishness. Again, thanks for my depression, my horror at what is inevitable if I catch the disease and my sleepless nights worrying about how I will deal with either my own suffering or watching my dear wife's suffering because so many in our society just don't give a shit for others. Yes, I am serious and very, very upset, and yes it is the middle of the night and no I don't drink.

It sounds like you continue with the precautions that you have done for years, and that will keep you safe. It’s a policy of protection we should roll out wider, with perhaps a UBI to help. Incentivize the older population and let them lead a comfortable existence albeit with some restrictions?

[Apple]

@doc.fixitYou are not on your own, believe me. Several people I know have expressed similar anxieties. Today's press  conference may offer some reassurance about where we are heading and what safeguards may still be necessary.

Despite being in a similar circumstance to yourself my main concern is about the impact to come of all this on younger people, who have like you say about their hedonistic lifestyles and those with me, me ,me attitudes, that when the true cost of this pandemic is realised and the changes it will inevitably bring to their world may just understand, too late for some, what true values there are in life and how precious some of the freedoms they will inevitably lose were so important.

 

 

[Lxxx]

2 hours ago, doc.fixit said:

FWIW his is aimed at those who wish to sacrifice my wife and I. 

I have struggled to lead as normal a life as possible for years, (I am 74), whilst trying to cope with a severe but stable lung disease. I have always practiced hand hygiene and social distancing.

However it seems that us oldies lives are worthless as is our contribution to society during our lifetime, as a number of folk wish us to be killed so that they can continue to lead their hedonistic existence, thank you.

I will carry on lying awake contemplating my horrible, painful demise from an awful disease because of other folk's selfishness. Again, thanks for my depression, my horror at what is inevitable if I catch the disease and my sleepless nights worrying about how I will deal with either my own suffering or watching my dear wife's suffering because so many in our society just don't give a shit for others. Yes, I am serious and very, very upset, and yes it is the middle of the night and no I don't drink.

With all due respect, and I mean this sincerely, to lie awake contemplating a horrible painful demise is no way to live a life. 

I can assure you no-one thinks you’re life is worthless however we need to move ahead as a society using a risk based approach. For everyone.

There are also a lot of things you can do personally to your general health in relation to improvingyour robustness against respiratory viruses, raising your viramin d levels being one that has received a lot of research. There are others. 

Living in fear will also depress your immune system though, which is the main point. Granted society needs to do more to safeguard our older generation but don’t let this period of your life be a write off. 

[The Old Git]

11 hours ago, pongo said:

ETA: local trades are doing great by all accounts. A lot of local spending has apparently been diverted into home improvements this year.

Some shelves at B&Q are looking fairly bare. Bloke was saying he’s having trouble replacing stock with the situation in the U.K.  Expecting one more shipment before Christmas maybe. 
 

Hope our food supplies are in better state. 

[trmpton]

Does anyone have an opinion on if having allegedly eradicated the virus from the community, we are potentially more susceptible to another outbreak than populations who have had it tuning though their society?

My gut feeling is we have set ourselves up for a potential massive fall, but have no real evidence to back that up other than a gut feeling that other places (London ? As an example) are starting to see benefits of some level of herd immunity 

[The Old Git]

That’s one possibility. On the other hand, has the virus changed to be less lethal as killing its host doesn’t help it spread?  At we’ve missed the more lethal version?

[John Wright]

3 hours ago, doc.fixit said:

FWIW his is aimed at those who wish to sacrifice my wife and I. 

I have struggled to lead as normal a life as possible for years, (I am 74), whilst trying to cope with a severe but stable lung disease. I have always practiced hand hygiene and social distancing.

However it seems that us oldies lives are worthless as is our contribution to society during our lifetime, as a number of folk wish us to be killed so that they can continue to lead their hedonistic existence, thank you.

I will carry on lying awake contemplating my horrible, painful demise from an awful disease because of other folk's selfishness. Again, thanks for my depression, my horror at what is inevitable if I catch the disease and my sleepless nights worrying about how I will deal with either my own suffering or watching my dear wife's suffering because so many in our society just don't give a shit for others. Yes, I am serious and very, very upset, and yes it is the middle of the night and no I don't drink.

I don’t think anyone wants to sacrifice you or your wife, or anyone else.

And yes, there are some very thoughtless people out there who by their negligent actions could lead to that result, and there are the Covid deniers whose philosophy and beliefs could have that result also. Both irresponsible in my view.

I look at this personally, as well, Doc. Three years ago, after two years of downward spirals in my health, with multiple infections, constant colds, bruising, bleeds, I was at deaths door, no immune system, sepsis starting. A leukaemia diagnosis followed. I was lucky, I’m in remission. But I did look death in the face.

Until March this year, to every question I asked, I was told my immune system was normal, yes I could have a tattoo, no I wasn’t at risk of mumps, measles, chicken pox, etc. Then, come Covid, all my Drs, Liverpool, Noble’s, GP, were sending me letters saying I was immunocompromised. I had to shield. Self isolate. I challenged this, was told, “well, we don’t know, but it’s for safety” of course, in my profession I know that means it’s defensive medicine to avoid being sued.

What I do know is that since remission and the return of normal blood cell levels I’ve had no colds, ear or gum infections. I’ve been well.

I tried a month of shielding. Then I started weighing up the risks, going to the post box, short shops at quiet times, trips to Peel Breakwater cafe. I felt the balance between life, and risk to me, allowed this and was in my favour. If I got it, I’d probably die. I wasn’t a risk to anyone else, unless I got it and ended up infecting someone treating me. The chance of infection was so very low I discounted it. That may have been selfish.

i consider my risk assessment to be no different to those I take every day, getting up, falling down stairs, driving, getting on a bus, things I’ve been doing all my life. It’s second nature. The difference is that on this issue we’ve been given very alarming information, the quality of which, given that Covid is still new, and a relative unknown,  is defensive and not necessarily science based. But we learn more daily.

Its like HIV/AIDS and the head stones and iceberg adverts in the early 1980’s. But it’s been much more effective in frightening us.

So, in August, I went away and spent 8 weeks in Europe. Again I personally risk assessed. I was careful. I fully isolated on return.

I don’t think you should be “protected” by being forced into isolation or having restrictions imposed on you. You can choose to take your own self protection. So can I.

But I feel there’s a space in the centre, between the two extremes of closed borders and free for all, based on improved knowledge and science. A middle ground that would allow greater freedom of movement, but not put you, or me, at increased risk.

I favour testing before arrival, testing at 7 days, and, either,  a government subsidised accommodation facility for that 7 days if home can’t provide separate living, or tagging and monitoring, a la Dubai, if it can. I’d also favour a Manx App, blue tooth based. 

None of them on their own are a guarantee. 14 days isn’t an absolute guarantee, but it’s been effective. With the things I’m suggesting I think we could be at, or near, the same level of control.

At the end of the day that is what it is. Control. We can’t eradicate. We don’t know if it’ll burn out over 2 or 3 years. We don’t know if vaccines will work. It’ll get here someday. Unfortunately. And we are not much better prepared now than in March. Yes we’ve got ward 20, yes, treatment is improved, but I’m not sure how good our track and trace is.
 

With the tools I’m suggesting I think we can have the best of both. Be safe, reduce restrictions, or replace them with better or easier ones.

[doc.fixit]

51 minutes ago, Lxxx said:

With all due respect, and I mean this sincerely, to lie awake contemplating a horrible painful demise is no way to live a life. 

I can assure you no-one thinks you’re life is worthless however we need to move ahead as a society using a risk based approach. For everyone.

There are also a lot of things you can do personally to your general health in relation to improvingyour robustness against respiratory viruses, raising your viramin d levels being one that has received a lot of research. There are others. 

Living in fear will also depress your immune system though, which is the main point. Granted society needs to do more to safeguard our older generation but don’t let this period of your life be a write off. 

cheers, it doesn't happen too often thank goodness and thanks for suggestions. I already exercise, work, good diet, vit D and C, fruit, nuts and sex but although living a good life the black descends occasionally and yes, I also worry a great deal about the future for our youth, my seven grandchildren, everyone in fact trying to deal with our brave new world, even while folk around the world try to kill their neighbours, their adopted countrymen and anyone else who disagrees with their religion or other beliefs

It's very hard sometimes to keep going when so many people don't give a fig for others well being.

OK rant over, a nice cup of tea and a hug for my loved ones and try and stay on an even keel until it becomes too much again. Thanks for listening.

[Andy Onchan]

11 minutes ago, The Old Git said:

Some shelves at B&Q are looking fairly bare. Bloke was saying he’s having trouble replacing stock with the situation in the U.K.  Expecting one more shipment before Christmas maybe. 
 

Hope our food supplies are in better state. 

If there is a problem then it's not the UK supply chain. It lies elsewhere. Try Googling "container shortages" and you'll see why there might be disruptions in some supply chains. 

And there's no reason to suspect or expect that food supplies will be affected. The food supply chain is a different animal altogether.

[Apple]

Well said. Mr Wright. 

it is a pity this message has not really come across from our Government. 

8 minutes ago, John Wright said:

But I feel there’s a space in the centre, between the two extremes of closed borders and free for all, based on improved knowledge and science. A middle ground that would allow greater freedom of movement, but not put you, or me, at increased risk.

I favour testing before arrival, testing at 7 days, and, either,  a government subsidised accommodation facility for that 7 days if home can’t provide separate living, or tagging and monitoring, a la Dubai, if it can. I’d also favour a Manx App, blue tooth based. 

It's a good job that young people like their phones so much as I think some of the things to come will include:

1. Enforced health care app on mobile phone with locator built in that an not be turned off. 

2 Travel health care insurance compulsory witha detailed health history available at borders

3. Passport id at all borders (favoured already by some Ministers I read)

4. Compulsory travel health screening either prior, at or post passing a border.

All this and whatever else will not be popular but it serves so many other purposes that at the moment politicians can only think to themselves and salivate about. We should be careful. Some of these issues are too important to leave to those too weak to argue against and / or unable to hold each other to account.

For this alone, shame on our current crop. 

 

 

[Andy Onchan]

3 minutes ago, Apple said:

Well said. Mr Wright. 

it is a pity this message has not really come across from our Government. 

It's a good job that young people like their phones so much as I think some of the things to come will include:

1. Enforced health care app on mobile phone with locator built in that an not be turned off. 

2 Travel health care insurance compulsory witha detailed health history available at borders

3. Passport id at all borders (favoured already by some Ministers I read)

4. Compulsory travel health screening either prior, at or post passing a border.

All this and whatever else will not be popular but it serves so many other purposes that at the moment politicians can only think to themselves and salivate about. We should be careful. Some of these issues are too important to leave to those too weak to argue against and / or unable to hold each other to account.

For this alone, shame on our current crop. 

 

 

As I said earlier, sitting and doing nothing is not really going to be an option come the New Year.