IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Scotty]

1 hour ago, trmpton said:

No.  Not talking about that at all.

Maybe a bit more research and keeping abreast of what’s going on before commenting wouldn’t be a bad idea?

Bloke needed a negative test to travel.  Felt fine and no COVID on island anyway so went for test - positive.

In the next 48 hours when track and trace kicked in over 10% of his close contacts also tested positive.  Top of my head they found about 9 more cases.  Hence the air bridge being closed just before half term.

No symptoms. No one got ill. No one died. No one knew COVID was “in the community” and since none of them had recently travelled they never found out where it came from.

Therefore it was, and still is, circulating there with no detectable issues at all.

Sorry , but I call bollocks on the made up post. Like being back in 5th form

[trmpton]

5 minutes ago, Scotty said:

Sorry , but I call bollocks on the made up post. Like being back in 5th form

What?  It was all over the news for days?

 

https://www.itv.com/news/channel/2020-10-23/seven-cases-of-coronavirus-suspend-isle-of-man-air-bridge-in-guernsey

Edited December 1, 2020 by trmpton

[John Wright]

10 hours ago, thommo2010 said:

What happens at 30 in 100k?

Nothing. 

[Happier diner]

9 hours ago, trmpton said:

No.  Not talking about that at all.

Maybe a bit more research and keeping abreast of what’s going on before commenting wouldn’t be a bad idea?

Bloke needed a negative test to travel.  Felt fine and no COVID on island anyway so went for test - positive.

In the next 48 hours when track and trace kicked in over 10% of his close contacts also tested positive.  Top of my head they found about 9 more cases.  Hence the air bridge being closed just before half term.

No symptoms. No one got ill. No one died. No one knew COVID was “in the community” and since none of them had recently travelled they never found out where it came from.

Therefore it was, and still is, circulating there with no detectable issues at all.

How come you are suddenly referring to Guernsey. Your OP said that we had active cases in the community and if we were testing we would be finding them. I argued against the that theory on the basis that if it were true, we would know about it. How come now referencing Guernsey has any relevance to that arguement. 

[Lxxx]

10 hours ago, trmpton said:

No.  Not talking about that at all.

Maybe a bit more research and keeping abreast of what’s going on before commenting wouldn’t be a bad idea?

Bloke needed a negative test to travel.  Felt fine and no COVID on island anyway so went for test - positive.

In the next 48 hours when track and trace kicked in over 10% of his close contacts also tested positive.  Top of my head they found about 9 more cases.  Hence the air bridge being closed just before half term.

No symptoms. No one got ill. No one died. No one knew COVID was “in the community” and since none of them had recently travelled they never found out where it came from.

Therefore it was, and still is, circulating there with no detectable issues at all.

Which indicates that testing in and of itself is flawed. Nature will always find a way and if the community is weathering it okay then it's wise to let things ride. 

[trmpton]

2 hours ago, Happier diner said:

How come you are suddenly referring to Guernsey. Your OP said that we had active cases in the community and if we were testing we would be finding them. I argued against the that theory on the basis that if it were true, we would know about it. How come now referencing Guernsey has any relevance to that arguement. 

So you don’t think the fact that something happened on an island similar to ours shows that the exact same could apply here and we wouldn’t know because we are barely testing anyone?

OK then!  We will have to agree to disagree.

I was responding to someone saying if it was here we would definitely know because people would be sick.  Guernsey clearly shows that is not necessarily the case.

[b4mbi]

Looks like Jersey is losing control of the spread with its cases in the community. Can only see it heading one way to another lockdown.

Know where I'd rather be right now.

[Roger Mexico]

1 hour ago, trmpton said:

So you don’t think the fact that something happened on an island similar to ours shows that the exact same could apply here and we wouldn’t know because we are barely testing anyone?

OK then!  We will have to agree to disagree.

I was responding to someone saying if it was here we would definitely know because people would be sick.  Guernsey clearly shows that is not necessarily the case.

I think you're missing the point about the Guernsey cluster.  They say this about it:

We know that the community has been extremely concerned about the source of the cluster of cases that was identified last month.

[...] We are now in a position to confirm that we believe we have identified the source of the infection and that all necessary retrospective steps have been taken to ensure that the spread of COVID-19 has been identified and contained.  It is always possible that reintroduction occurs – what happened here was the efficient test, track and isolation programme enabled a rapid response and containment. 

10 positive cases were identified in this cluster – 6 were related to a specific venue (which was not the source of the original infection), 3 were family members and 1 was a work colleague (again not the source of the original infection). We can also confirm that the source of the infection was NOT a student. 

Our enhanced testing capacity allowed Public Health Services to carry out widespread testing (i.e. not limited to close contacts) and, therefore, 268 contacts were tested regarding the cluster. 

Since 21st September, as part of our community testing programme, we have tested nearly 3 thousand symptomatic people in the community and none of these individuals have tested positive. 

The point is that it isn't in the community or they would know because they are testing so many people.  It's because they reacted so quickly that they were able to nip this outbreak in the bud.

[The Old Git]

48 minutes ago, b4mbi said:

Looks like Jersey is losing control of the spread with its cases in the community. Can only see it heading one way to another lockdown.

Know where I'd rather be right now.

News conference tonight to announce further measures. 

[trmpton]

13 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

I think you're missing the point about the Guernsey cluster.  They say this about it:

We know that the community has been extremely concerned about the source of the cluster of cases that was identified last month.

[...] We are now in a position to confirm that we believe we have identified the source of the infection and that all necessary retrospective steps have been taken to ensure that the spread of COVID-19 has been identified and contained.  It is always possible that reintroduction occurs – what happened here was the efficient test, track and isolation programme enabled a rapid response and containment. 

10 positive cases were identified in this cluster – 6 were related to a specific venue (which was not the source of the original infection), 3 were family members and 1 was a work colleague (again not the source of the original infection). We can also confirm that the source of the infection was NOT a student. 

Our enhanced testing capacity allowed Public Health Services to carry out widespread testing (i.e. not limited to close contacts) and, therefore, 268 contacts were tested regarding the cluster. 

Since 21st September, as part of our community testing programme, we have tested nearly 3 thousand symptomatic people in the community and none of these individuals have tested positive. 

The point is that it isn't in the community or they would know because they are testing so many people.  It's because they reacted so quickly that they were able to nip this outbreak in the bud.

Not missing the point at all.  People were posting that it can’t be in the community here as we would know.

Of course it’s in the community here, and the identified cluster (doesn’t mean it’s the only one) in Guernsey proved it can be spreading in the community and no one notice.

Were they lucky that a sheer fluke meant they identified it and could therefore isolate some of those positive? Yes.  Does that show we should be doing much more widespread testing? Yes.

[MadAsHell]

3 minutes ago, trmpton said:

Not missing the point at all.  People were posting that it can’t be in the community here as we would know.

Of course it’s in the community here, and the identified cluster (doesn’t mean it’s the only one) in Guernsey proved it can be spreading in the community and no one notice.

Were they lucky that a sheer fluke meant they identified it and could therefore isolate some of those positive? Yes.  Does that show we should be doing much more widespread testing? Yes.

Have we stopped testing people with symptoms? Or people admitted into the hospital?

[trmpton]

3 minutes ago, MadAsHell said:

Have we stopped testing people with symptoms? Or people admitted into the hospital?

No.

[Lxxx]

8 minutes ago, trmpton said:

Not missing the point at all.  People were posting that it can’t be in the community here as we would know.

Of course it’s in the community here, and the identified cluster (doesn’t mean it’s the only one) in Guernsey proved it can be spreading in the community and no one notice.

Were they lucky that a sheer fluke meant they identified it and could therefore isolate some of those positive? Yes.  Does that show we should be doing much more widespread testing? Yes.

Decent post up until the last sentence.

[Andy Onchan]

1 hour ago, b4mbi said:

Looks like Jersey is losing control of the spread with its cases in the community. Can only see it heading one way to another lockdown.

Know where I'd rather be right now.

It didn't help with that party that went on in a hotel (the name of which I can't recall).

[Capt_Mainwaring]

20 minutes ago, trmpton said:

Not missing the point at all.  People were posting that it can’t be in the community here as we would know.

Of course it’s in the community here

Do people really believe that a highly contagious virus with little to no herd immunity would really be circulating without serious issues? You only have to look at Jersey to see how, with community spread AND restrictions, things have snowballed in less than 2 weeks. Think of the number of events here, packed pubs and restaurants (list goes on), no social distancing or restrictions on care home visits for example, and then think about what you are saying.

Guernsey tested thousands of people and found no cases whatsoever.

Based purely on science of virus transmission, especially at this time of year, it could not be circulating without detection.