Annoymouse Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Pieman said: Most half sensible people here can see that the prospect of getting to levels of Covid that will allow us on the mainland to enjoy the sort of freedoms we used to take for granted are many years away. IOM has had that for most of last year and whilst in Lockdown at the moment, at least there is the realistic prospect of life being relatively normal in a couple of months or so! That is just not the case here. Politicians are talking about our "lockdown" being til mid Feb, or maybe Spring, but a year ago we had "no" Covid, now we have 50k to 60k cases per day and a thousand deaths per day. Our relatively free summer where we had pubs and restaurants shut til early July, gyms and hairdressers shut a bit longer, but we could at least go on holiday, (even abroad if we wanted), came off the back of "nil" cases in Jan and a well complied with for many weeks lockdown in April. This is just not the case now. Hi Pieman, welcome to the forum. Our Island has been quite fortunate on the whole, but it’s not been a smooth ride and it’s affected people in different ways. For me personally April-December our ‘Covid free’ months was nothing but a waiting game and my anxiety was through the roof, for example at our local Christmas light switch it was like any previous year but for those people with short memories they went back to normal very quickly, you’d almost think the virus had never existed and I think in their minds was probably never going to return. The island has now gone for an elimination strategy so we’ve effectively gone from zero to tier 4 for 3 weeks as we did back in March 2020 with very little notice, if it pays off all well and good, if it doesn’t I and many others will be struggling to keep a roof over our heads. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, Andy Onchan said: Very possibly but perhaps not for PHE quality/accreditation purposes and in any case why would she have to since we're not in PHE jurisdiction? But then IOMG was more than happy to avail themselves of her services when it was for free, ie. non-commercial rates, which is why they put her personally on bank terms. Does Nobles lab meet PHE quality/accreditiation standards? For COVID purposes probably not, otherwise why would Rachel have to train the Nobles staff? I'm just hypothesising that there may be reasons other than just typical IOM government pig headedness for us to take a route that on the face of it seems a less attractive option. Especially foregoing local use of our much heralded BioMed sector and a qualified resource that is of the same standard as anything we would have to send away to utilise. Being as she was trained by the UK government anyway. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the stinking enigma Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 I predict 10 days after the first muttering of manx solutions for manx problems we'll be fine again. Until that phrase is next uttered you can be certain there's community spread 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piebaps Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 31 minutes ago, Pieman said: us on the mainland Welcome fellow "piehead" good to have you aboard. Nice starting post but I think you'll find that we are the "mainland" and you are on the "adjacent Isle". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piebaps Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Banker said: There’s a report on bbc north west this lunchtime after bbc main news , it’s an Iom scientist says IOM could have done more to avoid second lockdown!! Rachel maybe? Is she your new "Guernsey"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaymann Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 24 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said: Very possibly but perhaps not for PHE quality/accreditation purposes and in any case why would she have to since we're not in PHE jurisdiction? But then IOMG was more than happy to avail themselves of her services when it was for free, ie. non-commercial rates, which is why they put her personally on bank terms. Does Nobles lab meet PHE quality/accreditiation standards? For COVID purposes probably not, otherwise why would Rachel have to train the Nobles staff? Im certain Dr Glover has stated publicly that she could do genome analysis on Island to the same if not better standard and it can be fed in to PHE at a later date. The important is knowing what it is and how it is spreading, not giving PHE more data. Seems she is calling out Dr Ewart on this too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, piebaps said: Is she your new "Guernsey"? Well let’s see what she says but we could do a lot worse than following Both!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 18 minutes ago, Mr Shoe said: True. If you're an armchair statistician or on a forum. False. If you have a statistics (or similar) degree, masters or phd. What do you think they study for all those years? They learn how to piece together a solid result from a crappy mishmash of seemingly conflicting datasets. Collect all the data you can. Because if you don't and something turns out to be crucial, we don't have a time machine to go back and re-gather the data. I genuinely don't know what to make of your comment, because you don't seem to have read anything I have written but have decided to have a go at me anyway. Statisticians can indeed make use of imperfect datasets with all sorts of clever techniques (though great care is needed because of hidden assumptions). But that's not what is being proposed with mass testing - it's the opposite, a 100% sample. For the effort involved you don't get much more information and it's not much use - maybe even counterproductive - for the purpose of disease control. There is a lot of such sampling going on such as the ONS survey I mentioned - which piggybacks onto their existing household survey. And anyone reading my other recent posts would have seen my horror at the hiding and destruction of data that seems to be happening on the Island. Not to mention the confusion and errors in the data that is published. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Onchan Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, Lxxx said: I'm just hypothesising that there may be reasons other than just typical IOM government pig headedness for us to take a route that on the face of it seems a less attractive option. Especially foregoing local use of our much heralded BioMed sector and a qualified resource that is of the same standard as anything we would have to send away to utilise. Being as she was trained by the UK government anyway. Indeed. It's all very perplexing and frustrating that IOMG themselves seem to be creating and believing their own hyperbowl(!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said: But that's not what is being proposed with mass testing - it's the opposite, a 100% sample. For the effort involved you don't get much more information and it's not much use - maybe even counterproductive - for the purpose of disease control. This was sort of my argument against the much heralded at the time but quickly shelved antibody testing. I couldn't really see what practical use it would have been. Interesting maybe, but ultimately useless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Annoymouse Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said: Indeed. It's all very perplexing and frustrating that IOMG themselves seem to be creating and believing their own hyperbowl(!). It’s a shame Dr Glover’s resources aren’t being utilised, I’m surprised she hasn’t been approached to do samples for UK or Ireland given the turnaround time she’s quoted, that would also be the ultimate fuck you. Edited January 12, 2021 by Annoymouse 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 hours ago, Lxxx said: I think you would be surprised then. Not saying what you say above isn't true as well, but all crown dependancies are plugged into Public Health England and they will want to do the genomic testing and centralise the data, with no outliers. They can then stick to a uniform narrative. I think you've developed a mild case of Barrie Stevens Syndrome, where the hidden hand of Whitehall is seen as controlling everything that happens on the Island. While most of the time they don't care or are unaware of our existence. In actual fact any data we provided wouldn't be much use at all if pooled into a larger UK database. Both in terms of numbers (tiny by comparison) or in what the data would say. Because of our geographic separation it would make as little sense as including Irish or French data. The value of anything we produced would be as a separate, high-quality, small size dataset where conclusions could be drawn about things such as infection rates and periods. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barlow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 (edited) . Edited January 12, 2021 by Barlow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Rachel Glover just been on BBC northwest and basically saying lockdown would have been avoided if testing had been carried out. critical of decision to stop 7 days testing as we were seeing positive cases from this testing and should have carried on for monitoring at least. Howie & Ashie won’t be happy!! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
horatiotheturd Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Barlow said: Any job that by its very nature means travelling and by its very nature means going to different houses and by its very nature means etc. It's people looking for the loopholes and anomalies and exploiting them that has in no small part got us into this shit. Oh by the way, I remind you that I have a relative in ITU, tubed up to the eyeballs. There are lots of reasons for a lockdown. I daresay most of us could find a 'silly' aspect to it if so inclined. I don't think people are looking for loopholes. People are looking for everyone to be treated fairly and equally. Up and Running are advertising being open and selling trainers but loads of other people are being denied the opportunity to work safely. Close everything non essential or let people make their own risk assessments. Dont just arbitrarily close down certain businesses and allow others to operate. I can't legally work today, but I can go and buy some new trainers in a shop then drive to South Barule for a run and some lunch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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