IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Newbie]

12 minutes ago, horatiotheturd said:

Disagree.  3 negative tests before you are allowed out is an incredibly robust system.

If we had done it throughout then there wouldn't have been an issue at Christmas and peoples attitudes wojld be different.

As it is peoples lack of understanding of the differences then and now are causing unnecessary over caution.

So if someone catches covid immediately before they travel, their day 1 test and quite possibly their day 6 test would be negative because they aren't shedding virus. If their day 13 test is a false negative they could be released even though they still have the virus. Only 1% of infected people would still be infectious at that time, so generally it is a low risk, but if you have 500 positives, for the sake of argument, that 1% is 5 people. If one of those 5 people happens to be one of the 10% or so of false negatives, you have a problem.

Alternatively, if someone travels over without the virus, but catches it from a fellow traveller on say day 3 or 4 of isolation, again they only need to have one false negative test on day 13 for their infection to go unrecognised

Edited February 3, 2021 by Newbie

[horatiotheturd]

3 minutes ago, TerryFuchwit said:

I understand the differences and, to be fair, by nature I'm not a risk averse person.  I'm also a borders open asap  believer.

So I dont approach this from either a lack of understanding or the mentality of all living in a bubble for ever.

What happens, by the way, when 40 of our teachers cant come to school for at least a fortnight because they have relatives over?     Same for doctors.  Police.  Fire brigade etc.  Where do you draw the line?

There's a huge pent up demand to get here.  So when a decision is made to open up (in whatever form that is) there is a lot to think about. Just saying.

How can you say you don't have a lack of understanding then ask about people not working because they have relatives over?

Why wouldn't they be at work?

 

[thommo2010]

3 hours ago, Nom de plume said:

Fantastic news re: the Oxford AZ vaccine not only suppressing symptoms but also limiting viral transmission.

 

It is but no doubt some media channel will be along soon enough to warn that it doesn't stop the spread of the Azerbaijani strain which has a 300% chance of death. 

[Roger Mexico]

3 hours ago, horatiotheturd said:

For reference Singapore have imported between 19 and 55 active cases each day this week and have been for weeks.

No recent community spread because the cases are all isolating.

This did not age well.

[Barlow]

11 hours ago, Barlow said:

Apologies if this link has been posted already in the thread.

Credit where it is due, Howard Quayle did a great job here on Good Morning Britain Tuesday 2/2/21. Piers Morgan is right on board with it too:

 

Hah hah! I see the pub scenes at the beginning have been fuzzied out! I thought it brought out the best in Joanna, and the travelling marshal chap, and the rest of them

[Andy Onchan]

24 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

This did not age well.

https://www.moh.gov.sg/resources-statistics/infectious-disease-statistics/2021/weekly-infectious-diseases-bulletin

That's some pretty comprehensive data. Do we have the same available (other than COVID)?

[Cambon]

19 hours ago, John Wright said:

That’s just not true. During 2020 every EU country has had its own entry prohibitions, quarantine or entry testing requirements against third countries AND against Schengen and Schengen associate states.

It was the lobbying pressure of Tory donor chums in airports and airlines that led to UK not closing borders, imposing quarantine, entry restrictions, both EU and further afield.

Sorry John, but the uks hands were absolutely tied by the agreement where other eu countries were not. Any failure or deviation could have delayed Brexit further. As Gladys pointed out earlier, France tried to close the border to put pressure on the uk over fisheries. Eu quickly put them straight. 

[John Wright]

6 minutes ago, Cambon said:

Sorry John, but the uks hands were absolutely tied by the agreement where other eu countries were not. Any failure or deviation could have delayed Brexit further. As Gladys pointed out earlier, France tried to close the border to put pressure on the uk over fisheries. Eu quickly put them straight. 

Your interpretation is completely 100% wrong. But you’re entitled to espouse a wrong view. 

[piebaps]

5 hours ago, Nom de plume said:

Fantastic news re: the Oxford AZ vaccine not only suppressing symptoms but also limiting viral transmission.

 

I'm suspicious. A story emerges in UK media about how great the vaccine is and its based on an as yet unpublished study. Meanwhile, France & Germany won't give it to their over 65 group.

This smells of a PR job.

[madmanxpilot]

14 minutes ago, piebaps said:

I'm suspicious. A story emerges in UK media about how great the vaccine is and its based on an as yet unpublished study. Meanwhile, France & Germany won't give it to their over 65 group.

This smells of a PR job.

There is no way Oxford University are going to falsify/invent a study to justify a narrative.

France and Germany have decided not to offer it to their over 65s because they say the sample group in the phase three trials was not big enough - the rest of the EU disagrees. Macron says it barely efficacious for over 65s too. All of this about a vaccine that they desperately wanted, a vaccine that when they told they were having their supplies reduced saw then throw their toys out of their cots. If ever there was a PR job to take the heat off their cock up in contract negotiations, its this.

Edited February 3, 2021 by madmanxpilot

[Barlow]

Accolades for Howard Quayle (and the Isle of Man) on Jeremy Vine show today. I think it is the jail thing that has most grabbed people. And rightly too, as to be fair, although it is not always black and white some of the jailees are selfish arrogant people that deserved their locking up.

PS there's a pandemic going on.

[Utah 01]

5 hours ago, TerryFuchwit said:

There's a huge pent up demand to get here

....and for those of us with no family here, to get of here, too - with a reasonable chance of coming back again without going into enforced house-arrest.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Utah 01

[monasqueen]

I have family across, but the last thing I want to do is go away from here to a place that is crawling with virus.

Once everyone has been vaccinated, and the dangers have been substantially reduced, then I might be hoping to spend a few days away to catch up with some hugs.

Meanwhile, I shall enjoy this Island.

[Roger Mexico]

16 minutes ago, piebaps said:

I'm suspicious. A story emerges in UK media about how great the vaccine is and its based on an as yet unpublished study. Meanwhile, France & Germany won't give it to their over 65 group.

This smells of a PR job.

It's not unpublished, but it hasn't been peer-reviewed ie reviewed by others working in the same field.  Because of the urgency this is quite common with papers about Covid and surrounding topics which then effectively get reviewed, publicly and privately, online.

 A 'pre-print' was published on the Lancet website yesterday with link to the full paper.  It's not based on any new trials, but on a re-analysis of the existing one using the data cut-off of 7 December.  So it has the feel of something that is justifying an existing policy rather than the policy being derived from published data.

Which doesn't mean that it's wrong of course, but the whole trial of the Oxford vaccine has a bit of a thrown-together feel[1] rather than following a pre-arranged plan and there's always a danger of unconsciously picking figures that suit the narrative rather than reflect all the data. 

The important point is that the effects they are looking at here (no second dose or a longer time than specified between doses) weren't pre-planned and so could not have assigned randomly - they were just things that happened during the trial.  So they may also have been influenced by other factors which cause the differences in the results.

Looking at the actual figures (see p 20-22 of the full paper), I'm not really convinced that a longer delay between the two jabs actually gives more protection, it may just be a factor of there being less time for those who had the second jab later to catch the virus afterwards.  And the single dose figures don't really show if long-range protection is provided.

 

[1]  For example the low first dose that they claim provided greater protection was given by mistake and only to participants in the UK, not the other two sites of Brazil and South Africa (the paranoid may want to note that these three countries are where the new variants have appeared).  This means that it may be confounded by season factors, even though they initially split the trial between northern and southern hemispheres. 

[Nom de plume]

1 hour ago, monasqueen said:

I have family across, but the last thing I want to do is go away from here to a place that is crawling with virus.

Once everyone has been vaccinated, and the dangers have been substantially reduced, then I might be hoping to spend a few days away to catch up with some hugs.

Meanwhile, I shall enjoy this Island.

Looking at the way the U.K. is ploughing through their vaccination programme I don’t believe it’s within the realms of fantasy that we might be moving ‘relatively’ freely off and back on Island post Easter, certainly by the end of May.

We’ve done incredibly well through a combination of geography, a relatively small population per land mass, compliance, relatively quick decision making & a fair chunk of luck.

It looks more promising each day. Those bloody selfish people wanting their two weeks in the sun might just get it you know ....