Peter Layman Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 1 hour ago, TerryFuchwit said: Lol. It's almost like you are new here. I don't think you have to be new to suss out how some posters post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happier diner Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Just now, AcousticallyChallenged said: It tells you who caught it from who. So by measure, you know if Alice caught it from Bob. And if Alice caught it from Bob at a coffee shop, you know that the coffee shop could be a problem. If Alice didn't catch it from Bob, who did she catch it from? This stops you from having to assume where cases were transmitted, and, at the very least, reaffirms your notion that it is a single cluster. But, equally, you have Alice and Bob who both have it, whose contacts do you look at first? Knowing who gave it to who, that lets you follow it in the right direction too. Probably true. But you would have isolated them both wouldn't you. What next? Test everyone on the Island and then do the sequencing or wait for the next positive test. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh G Rection Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, Banker said: Just Ashie on press conference later so looking like no bad news if Howie not about!! Saves any tantrums when PM asks about steam packet! Surely to me that forebodes impending doom. HQ in some very important meetings???? Receiving some stern advice advocating island wide home arrest????? Or maybe he’s taking a drive up to an impressive laboratory in Onchan to deliver some choice words to his least favourite keyboard warrior???? 🤣 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said: It tells you who caught it from who. So by measure, you know if Alice caught it from Bob. And if Alice caught it from Bob at a coffee shop, you know that the coffee shop could be a problem. If Alice didn't catch it from Bob, who did she catch it from? This stops you from having to assume where cases were transmitted, and, at the very least, reaffirms your notion that it is a single cluster. But, equally, you have Alice and Bob who both have it, whose contacts do you look at first? Knowing who gave it to who, that lets you follow it in the right direction too. If they both have the exact same strain of virus, how does it tell you who caught it from who in the coffee shop? If there has been a mutation and you just have those 2 cases, how do you know which is the earlier version of the virus? These are genuine questions - just trying to understand. I can see the value if you have an apparently random unrelated case that turns out to have the same genome, so you can link that case to a known cluster and then look for ways that the transmission might have occurred, but that is exactly what contact tracers do, and they can start doing it as soon as they have a positive result rather than 24hrs later. As for whether you look at Alice's or Bob's contacts first, you look at both to see whether there are any common contacts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quilp Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 All's well, nothing to worry about... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Onchan Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 17 minutes ago, Happier diner said: No thstitics then today Just the fifeser vaccine updates No HQ today because he's at home working on the pronunciation of certificate (susstificate, stificate etc). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmanxpilot Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 (edited) 57 minutes ago, wrighty said: It's better than hearing on a Sunday night that you might have been exposed the previous Tuesday. To be fair, the Java Express was listed as a 'Location of Interest' on Friday 19th and people who were in there between the specified times on the previous Tuesday were asked to be extra vigilant regarding the development symptoms. What else could they (IOMG) have done and how would genomics have changed anything in the subsequent timeline? Or am I missing something? Edited February 23, 2021 by madmanxpilot Typo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcousticallyChallenged Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 (edited) 39 minutes ago, Happier diner said: Take a look at what the WHO says. Paragraph above bottom of page 21. Explains the limitations https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1326052/retrieve I'm not a doctor and I struggled with a lot of this document. But my conclusions are based upon my understanding of it I'm not just being as Ass/Troll on purpose. Its an interesting subject and the potential of this testing of course is clear. However, I'm just honestly not seeing the benefits to us at this moment in time and I agree with Ashford (or whoever is advising him) that as we are it wouldn't help Thanks for the link, I mean that without being facetious or condescending. If you look at section 5.4.6, which is what we're talking out, 'intra host viral diversity', or, how the virus differs between individual hosts. Quote Intra-host variation exists for coronaviruses that are closely related to SARS-CoV-2, such as MERS-CoV (110). While the (limited) current data support the existence of intra-host genetic variation in SARS-CoV-2, to date there are very few data sets of within-host variation from known epidemiological clusters that could be used to determine whether this variation is transmitted between patients( 111). If it is not, the use of these techniques would not be possible. Specialist bioinformatic and phylogenetic analyses are required to analyse intra-host virus variation. Given the current lack of understanding of the magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 intra-host variation or its transmissibility, these specialist analyses are not covered here. But, I'd point out that the paper this section cites, was from the 9th of March 2020, when we didn't have the data or understanding of the virus that we do now. So, if we take that in light of contemporary literature, this paper for example, published on the 18th Feb 2021 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.13.21251678v1 shows how you can use those genomics to identify venues of transmission. Edit to add: This paper is not yet peer reviewed, but it went up last week. If you look at the first authors, they are all well-cited. Quote an in-depth analysis of one population infection cluster combining genetic with contact tracing data enabled the identification of a previously unrecognized population transmission chain involving a martial arts gym. Based on these results and a real-time sequencing experiment in which we demonstrated the feasibility of achieving sample-to-turnaround times of <30 hours with the Oxford Nanopore technology, we discuss the potential benefits of routine ultra-fast sequencing of all detected infections for contact tracing, infection cluster detection, and, ultimately, improved management of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Edited February 23, 2021 by AcousticallyChallenged Not peer reviewed yet 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quilp Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 21 minutes ago, Newbie said: Perhaps I am being thick, but how does genomics tell you who the virus has been transmitted to.? To do the genomic studies you have to have a positive test. The genomic tests on one person will not tell you who they have transmitted the virus to if that person is not already known to have the virus. This link might help informing you about how it works... https://theconversation.com/genomic-fingerprinting-helps-us-trace-coronavirus-outbreaks-what-is-it-and-how-does-it-work-142917 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ham_N_Eggs Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Newbie said: If they both have the exact same strain of virus, how does it tell you who caught it from who in the coffee shop? If there has been a mutation and you just have those 2 cases, how do you know which is the earlier version of the virus? These are genuine questions - just trying to understand. Every time a virus moves from person it varies slightly but it still carries with it markers of the previous infection. Think of it like DNA (i knows it not before anyone starts banging that drum) your DNA can identify who your parents are, it can also tell who your brother and sisters parents are. It can say that you're related to your cousin but not directly. It can also tell you that a sibling you've lived with all your life is actually only a half sibling because your mum got frisky with the milkman. In the case of genomics this lineage helps identify if the clusters are from one source and whether they came directly from that source or through other people first. If it came through others first then the problem is more widespread and more tracing work needs to be done. If it came directly then congratulations contact tracing is working. The quicker it gets done then the greater the aid to contact tracing. So you see it is a useful tool to have. I'm pretty sure, although I could be wrong, there is an issue with flying these samples away and they have to go on the boat. With the boats not going that causes more delay. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ham_N_Eggs Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Newbie said: Duplicate post. Edited February 23, 2021 by Ham_N_Eggs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcousticallyChallenged Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 Just now, Ham_N_Eggs said: Every time a virus moves from person it varies slightly but it still carries with it markers of the previous infection. Think of it like DNA (i knows it not before anyone starts banging that drum) your DNA can identify who your parents are, it can also tell who your brother and sisters parents are. It can say that you're related to your cousin but not directly. It can also tell you that a sibling you've lived with all your life is actually only a half sibling because your mum got frisky with the milkman. In the case of genomics this lineage helps identify if the clusters are from one source and whether they came directly from that source or through other people first. If it came through others first then the problem is more widespread and more tracing work needs to be done. If it came directly then congratulations contact tracing is working. The quicker it gets done then the greater the aid to contact tracing. So you see it is a useful tool to have. I'm pretty sure, although I could be wrong, there is an issue with flying these samples away and they have to go on the boat. With the boats not going that causes more delay. I think the other thing to reinforce is: Genomics doesn't replace contact tracing. But, you only have a certain contact tracing capacity, genomics helps you target that to the right places. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryFuchwit Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 1 hour ago, the stinking enigma said: The way i see it, quick genomics is key to avoiding lockdown especially as we move forwards with a higher percentage of vaccinated people. Either terrence fuckwit is a true fuckwit or he has a different agenda. I suspect both I have no "agenda". The Genomics thing is just boring. It simply doesn't alter strategy and we get the results anyway (for what they are worth). No idea about the Richard Glover comment from tosspot. Must be building site humour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmanxpilot Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Ham_N_Eggs said: I'm pretty sure, although I could be wrong, there is an issue with flying these samples away and they have to go on the boat. With the boats not going that causes more delay. Not to mention potential cross contamination..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 18 minutes ago, quilp said: All's well, nothing to worry about... Some very interesting comments on there especially on SPC isolation which Ashie accepts is not sustainable going forward 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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