Andy Onchan Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 22 hours ago, madmanxpilot said: Interesting. We were told that Chester Street is administering 'Pfifefezer' only. Things must have changed. Just re-checked with She, who says it's definitely OAZ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy kettlefish Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, Albert Tatlock said: It seems not - as no possible contact links to that crew or crew member chain can be identified. If everyone in the SP chain is telling the truth - it's more likely to have come from another potential source such as a traveller or key worker breaching the rules. But with these two cases that are not linked together by venues of potential infection, it suggests two potential breaches elsewhere. It does seem so, but I think the authorities need to start getting a grip and quick, this island cannot afford to let this get loose. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manx Yeller Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Dave Hedgehog said: What difference would that make. Even if linked there is still a missing link in the chain so the person(s) who infected them are still out and about. If not linked then again the person(s) who infected them are still out and about. To quote Ewart "Contract tracing is not an exact science". I'd argue it isn't even a science but there you go. What is an exact science is genomics. Contract tracing relies on the person involved remembering and disclosing exactly where they've been for a period of time. How easily would you recall everywhere you've been even if just for 5 minutes over the last week? It may well be that genomics proves that these unexplained cases are actually linked directly to an explained case. Or worse case, it shows the path to them so at least the team could concentrate on finding the missing link easier as they are no longer looking for a needle in a haystack. Edited March 1, 2021 by Manx Yeller Typo 7 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 Was just looking at Mona Lisa Facebook to check deals and they have just posted that a positive case visited them last Thursday 25/02 but it’s ok it’s low risk!! Only got call this morning from 111 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcousticallyChallenged Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 (edited) . Edited March 1, 2021 by AcousticallyChallenged Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Tatlock Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Manx Yeller said: To quote Ewart "Contract tracing is not an exact science". I'd argue it isn't even a science but there you go. What is an exact science is genomics. Contract tracing relies on the person involved remembering and disclosing exactly where they've been for a period of time. How easily would you recall everywhere you've been even if just for 5 minutes over the last week? Contact tracing was very effective for the January lockdown. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Hedgehog Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, Banker said: Was just looking at Mona Lisa Facebook to check deals and they have just posted that a positive case visited them last Thursday 25/02 but it’s ok it’s low risk!! Only got call this morning from 111 So will that be another positive test last night then.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcousticallyChallenged Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, Albert Tatlock said: If everyone in the SP chain is telling the truth This is also a key factor. I'm not saying anyone is being dishonest, but it's very easy to forget all the places you've been and when. If you know a link exists to a particular individual, then it might well jog their memory to see a list of the unknown case's locations. That combined with contact tracing from that point, may be able to curtail any community spread. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gladys Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, Dave Hedgehog said: What difference would that make. Even if linked there is still a missing link in the chain so the person(s) who infected them are still out and about. If not linked then again the person(s) who infected them are still out and about. Well, as usual, it would make little difference now. But if all positive tests were genomically sequenced, you could establish links and if there was a missing link go back to the likely source and go over their movements again within a couple of days to determine if there was a venue they had forgotten about, or not and then you know it is possibly more widespread. The point is to get as much data as possible as way as possible. But stubbornness is closing that option down and is too late now as usual. 9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy kettlefish Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 If the island is not careful you could heading for a absolute nightmare, hopefully not because I don't think it could cope with a outbreak. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gladys Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Billy kettlefish said: If the island is not careful you could heading for a absolute nightmare, hopefully not because I don't think it could cope with a outbreak. Psychologically no, practically probably, if gov get a handle on it now and not just shrug and say we will never know. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy kettlefish Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 Just now, Gladys said: Psychologically no, practically probably, if gov get a handle on it now and not just shrug and say we will never know. Yes ur right, as a stay over family it is much slower here than London ever was, so I feel the frustration but I think a slight geeing up from authority would make a difference.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manx Yeller Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 16 minutes ago, Gladys said: Well, as usual, it would make little difference now. But if all positive tests were genomically sequenced, you could establish links and if there was a missing link go back to the likely source and go over their movements again within a couple of days to determine if there was a venue they had forgotten about, or not and then you know it is possibly more widespread. The point is to get as much data as possible as way as possible. But stubbornness is closing that option down and is too late now as usual. Does anyone actually know whether when the genomics comes back from Liverpool (I think that Dr Ewart said we had everything for cases up to 22 Feb?), is it just used for checking which variant or do they actually use it to check chains of transmission? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcousticallyChallenged Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, Manx Yeller said: Does anyone actually know whether when the genomics comes back from Liverpool (I think that Dr Ewart said we had everything for cases up to 22 Feb?), is it just used for checking which variant or do they actually use it to check chains of transmission? I imagine they get the full sequence if they want it. But whether they have the skillset to use that is another question. That's no knock to them either, genomics is just very niche. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zarley Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 28 minutes ago, Albert Tatlock said: It seems not - as no possible contact links to that crew or crew member chain can be identified. If everyone in the SP chain is telling the truth - it's more likely to have come from another potential source such as a traveller or key worker breaching the rules. But with these two cases that are not linked together by venues of potential infection, it suggests two potential breaches elsewhere. But they're not necessarily isolation breaches. It was either the Xmas case or the pub case (don't remember exact details) that was caused by someone developing symptoms and testing positive after they'd fulfilled their isolation period. This easily could have happened again. It could also happen that someone fulfilled their isolation period and developed an asymptotic infection after their 14 day test. You'd have a bugger of a time finding that person. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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