IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Gladys]

54 minutes ago, Banker said:

I think Bill is speaking what lots think and other MHKS are saying as well, Howie & co have made some bad errors in last month & the exit strategy is waffle & no one other than Pongo thinks it’s any good 

The "errors" were evident since the letter.

[Happier diner]

12 hours ago, Andy Onchan said:

Of course it's speculation but it might support the reason why there were unexplained and unconnected cases to the ONE case that they knew about.

We will never really know will we but my point is that it is easily possible for one case to cause this level of spread. That's because we had no measures in place at all. The R number could have been between 3 and 5. That means

Day 1. 1 Case

day2. 5 cases

Day 3. 25 cases

Day4 125 cases

Day5 625 cases

And so on, exponentially. It was at least 7 days before we locked down and therefore it's easily possible that 1 case did all the damage.

[wrighty]

4 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

We will never really know will we but my point is that it is easily possible for one case to cause this level of spread. That's because we had no measures in place at all. The R number could have been between 3 and 5. That means

Day 1. 1 Case

day2. 5 cases

Day 3. 25 cases

Day4 125 cases

Day5 625 cases

And so on, exponentially. It was at least 7 days before we locked down and therefore it's easily possible that 1 case did all the damage.

That’s some growth rate! Day 8 the whole island would have it. 
 

Covid is more like 2-3x every 5-6 days when left to its own devices. 

[Happier diner]

14 hours ago, CallMeCurious said:

If only we had genomics to look back eh? Oh wait we don't do that. Manx solutions and all that.

Maybe I misheard, but I am sure DrH has already confirmed that all the positives we have had were of the same strain.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

4 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

We will never really know will we but my point is that it is easily possible for one case to cause this level of spread. That's because we had no measures in place at all. The R number could have been between 3 and 5. That means

Day 1. 1 Case

day2. 5 cases

Day 3. 25 cases

Day4 125 cases

Day5 625 cases

And so on, exponentially. It was at least 7 days before we locked down and therefore it's easily possible that 1 case did all the damage.

You'd want to factor in incubation periods as well. Those 5 cases on day 2 probably aren't shedding til day 4 or later.

But you're right with the scales, once exponential growth gets going, that's when you end up with big problems.

[Whatnonsence]

13 hours ago, thommo2010 said:

How do you know there hasnt been a police investigation? 

Your right Thommo I don’t know worthy line of questioning for the media at the briefing.

 

[Newbie]

8 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

We will never really know will we but my point is that it is easily possible for one case to cause this level of spread. That's because we had no measures in place at all. The R number could have been between 3 and 5. That means

Day 1. 1 Case

day2. 5 cases

Day 3. 25 cases

Day4 125 cases

Day5 625 cases

And so on, exponentially. It was at least 7 days before we locked down and therefore it's easily possible that 1 case did all the damage.

It doesn't work like that. If the first case had infected 5 people on day 1, it would be some days before those 5 people became infectious, and so on.

Edited to add: AC beat me to it!

Edited March 12, 2021 by Newbie

[Two-lane]

'We're plateauing and coming off the peak" - this is the scientific analysis provided by H Ewart, PhD (History).

[TheTeapot]

8 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

Maybe I misheard, but I am sure DrH has already confirmed that all the positives we have had were of the same strain.

I'd like to know how many points of entry there had been.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

10 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

Maybe I misheard, but I am sure DrH has already confirmed that all the positives we have had were of the same strain.

The strain just tells you how it's likely to behave. E.g with the Kent strain/variant being more transmissible.

The lineage and full sequence actually tell the story of where it came from. You'd likely pick up the Kent variant anyway in the UK if you were exposed to COVID. That doesn't mean it'd be linked to any of the community cases here.

Dr Glover explains the levels of detail here between strains and lineages.

 

Edited March 12, 2021 by AcousticallyChallenged
I replaced with it

[Barlow]

 

1 hour ago, Banker said:

Shimmins not happy with Howie either and the exit strategy which Howie said yesterday has been well received is described as waffle, I agree with Bill

https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/mhk-brands-covid-exit-strategy-waffle/

 

I caught this on Manx Radio breakfast show. Back in the day before they couldn't be arsed and just lash records on, the Manx Radio Morning Mandate team would have secured a follow up interview with Bill Shimmins. But fuck it, it's far easier to have Dua Liper or some such to fill the airtime. It's certainly cheaper and clearly Manx Radio must be strapped for cash these days.

[John Wright]

16 hours ago, Cassie2 said:

Steam Packet ‘Debacle’ - a Constitutional Crisis?
News 11 Mar 
Written By Sam Turton, Gef
A senior advocate has said that the ongoing row over the state owned Steam Packet and isolation rules for its crew raises issues around the separation of powers and possible breaches of the Government Code.

Ian Kermode, who is the sole practitioner from his Court View Chambers, has also written an open letter to chief secretary Will Greenhow with a list of questions relating to the issuing of directives for crew members and the investigation whether or not crews should have been isolated.

He says either a Tynwald committee or an independent off-island legal counsel should be brought in to explore the matters.

The issue of the Steam Packet crews came to light after a member of the crew tested positive for Covid-19. Then during a covid briefing earlier this year when Dr Henrietta Ewart said crews were isolating at home when off shift. However Gef and other media companies were contacted during that briefing by crews to say that was not the case.

The Steam Packet has always said its crews have acted according to the regulations.

In his letters, Mr Kermode asks who was supposed to be ensuring that the Steam Packet crew if, as the gov believed they were isolating when off shift, why it took 11 months for the error to come to light and whether it was realistic the crews could have lived under those conditions for 11 months anyway. 

Constitutional Questions

Chief Minister Howard Quayle later said he was ‘having it investigated’. Then on March 1, he announced: ‘I have taken advice on whether there is any prosecution that can be made on this and the answer is no.’

Mr Kermode said this ‘raises a number of significant constitutional issues’.

He added: ‘Under the important principle of the Separation of Powers, the functions and responsibilities of the Police, Prosecution, Parliament, Executive and the Judiciary are necessarily distinct and independent.

‘A breach of Coronavirus Regulations is a criminal offence. Only the Police should investigate such offences and only Prosecutors of the Attorney General’s Chambers should advise on whether there ought to be a prosecution in Court against an individual or company.

‘Instead, it appears that the Chief Minister has conveniently by-passed such bodies and asked other persons to investigate possible criminal offences and advise on breach of Covid Regulations. 

‘If that is what has happened then both the investigation and advice could potentially be unconstitutional and ultra vires [beyond the powers].’

He goes on to say that if Mr Quayle asked the Steam Packet to carry out an investigation into whether or not criminal offences had been committed this too would be ‘wholly inappropriate’ and could lead to a ‘corporate whitewash’.

‘It is simply unacceptable for the Chief Minister to sit as judge and jury on potential criminal matters.’

Ministerial Code

The advocate also explores issues of whether the Ministerial Code (known as the Government Code on the Isle of Man) may have been broken. The code says this an ‘overarching duty on ministers to comply with the law, including international obligations, to uphold the administration of justice and protect the integrity of public life’. In addition it also says that ‘holders of public office should be as open as possible about the decisions and actions they take’.

Mr Kermode added: ‘In such context, it can legitimately be asked whether the Chief Minister will confirm who carried out the investigation, who gave the advice not to prosecute and why he has not freely divulged and published the findings of such investigation.

‘There is also critical consideration of confidence in the Administration of Justice. Central to this concept is that the law must be applied fairly and equally to everyone.’

‘No one is above the law. No person. No company. No Government Department. Public faith in the criminal process also requires that justice is not only done but is seen to be done; in the eyes of the Manx public but also in the perception of those looking at the island from countries abroad.

‘Any cabinet minister found to have acted unconstitutionally or significantly breached the Ministerial Code or damaged confidence in the administration of justice would be expected to consider resignation. As yet we do not know whether any of these things have happened.’

The Clique

Mr Kermode then turns his attention to the way the pandemic has been handled by the Council of Ministers, saying some people might argue that the handling of the Steam Packet issue ‘has been an accident waiting to happen.’

He adds: ‘For too long during this pandemic it has appeared that we have been governed by an elite cocooned in a bubble of self-congratulation and mutual back slapping, detached from the emotional suffering, financial hardship and enormous disruption their decisions have caused to ordinary people.

‘The conspicuous context of these constitutional breaches is that to date at least 60 people have been jailed on the Isle of Man for breach of Covid Regulations; 48 in 2020 and 12 in 2021.’

Mr Kermode said in these instances there was ‘no misunderstanding’ and ‘no mercy’, instead ‘it was black and white’. He added that many of these people will now be wondering they were jailed but the Steam Packet crew haven’t. 

However, far from blaming the crews themselves, he says ‘we are left with the uneasy feelings that the decent men and women of the Steam Packet are being used as scapegoats for government failings’.

He added: ‘We are left sceptical that the current lockdown was delayed in an attempt to save face and avoid any admission of border failure. And we are left with more than a whiff of abuse of power.’

The Situation Remains the Same

Gef contacted the gov for a response to Mr Kermode’s letters. A spokesman said the situation remains the same and the Chief Minister has asked Mr Greenhow to organise a review into the matter.

Sam Turton

I’m not criticising Ian. But there’s another interpretation.

ive looked at Exemption and Direction Notices. The ones I’ve seen have been spectacularly badly drafted.

Ive posted elsewhere, it doesn’t matter what Dr Ewart thinks she remembers she said to SPCo or what SPCo management think they heard, it’s what the Exemption Certificates, from time to time,  actually said.

if it was poorly drafted, and I suspect it was, then if the AG, who attends CoMin and advises the CM says prosecution isn’t possible then it’s appropriate for the AG to tell the police not to waste time investigating ( and if it was the other way round, and police weren’t investigating something, and AG thought they should, then he should instruct investigation ).

So, assuming AG has advised no prosecution could succeed, and I suspect he will have done for Howie to say there will be no prosecutions, then all constitutional proprieties, ministerial code etc., have been complied with and the suggested ( by Mr Kermode ) breaches of separation of powers, or codes, or any constitutional issue are  a nonsense.

[display name]

13 minutes ago, Two-lane said:

'We're plateauing and coming off the peak" - this is the scientific analysis provided by H Ewart, PhD (History).

Yep. She's Al Murray in disguise. Not a good disguise either.

[John Wright]

15 minutes ago, Two-lane said:

H Ewart, PhD (History).

Qualified Dr, and a professional life time working in public health. What qualifications do you have?

[Andy Onchan]

12 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

I'd like to know how many points of entry there had been.

100% more than one person stepped off the Ben with the virus. 

ETA: I mean crew.

Edited March 12, 2021 by Andy Onchan