Newbie Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 44 minutes ago, Howard the Duck MBE TBC said: Yes sorry a's wife. I wouldn't get to tied up on incubation periods. People are still returning positive tests for 14 days or more after their first so A could have been asymptomatic and working with B plenty long enough to have passed it on. As long as asymptomatic cases can last for weeks and people are still moving about we are going to get cases. I absolutely get that. People who are asymptomatic, or even people who subsequently go on to develop symptoms but are shedding virus for a couple of days before they develop symptoms, will pass it around. That is one of the main reasons it gets spread so easily. A genuinely asymptomatic person may well be picked up through track and trace once one of their contacts (at work or at home) catches it and develops symptoms, but that will obviously take a number of days to happen, and in the meantime they can continue to infect others. The original post seemed to suggest that it was someone who was completely asymptomatic and had no reason to believe they might have Covid, and were tested and found to be positive. I couldn't see why that person would have been tested (i.e. no symptoms and no contacts with positive cases). However, the OP understandably doesn't know the exact circumstances, and presumably it is a case of someone catching covid from somewhere, being asymptomatic and being identified through track and trace. Someone in that situation is going to go in to work, because they have no reason not to, before they have been identified as positive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 23 minutes ago, Cambon said: 106 recoveries! That is great! Actually it isn't. 15 days ago on the 8th was the infamous 108 cases day, so you would expect to see that number recover. This isn't a one-off. I reckon that by now there 518 cases in the current outbreak which are past 14 days after the day they were announced as a new case. And yet the number of recoveries based on the change in active cases is only 316[1]. That's about 200 who should have recovered, but haven't according to them. [1] The dashboard says 313 recoveries (I think they not be including some separate travel related ones) so there's not much disagreement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said: According to YouTube it's only 538 views. Obviously people may have viewed it via other media, but the viewing numbers are actually less that for the briefings before (19 Mar - 1768) and after (22 Mar - 1551). It's clearly the briefings that are popular, especially the numbers at the start, rather than these pre-recorded chats. More BS from the cabinet office no doubt, probably use it to reduce the press briefings to 1 question each, also stopping questions in Keys even though majority 14-10 voted to question. CM is getting more like a dictator now things aren't going his way and the questioning is getting a bit fiercer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambon Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 33 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said: Actually it isn't. 15 days ago on the 8th was the infamous 108 cases day, so you would expect to see that number recover. This isn't a one-off. I reckon that by now there 518 cases in the current outbreak which are past 14 days after the day they were announced as a new case. And yet the number of recoveries based on the change in active cases is only 316[1]. That's about 200 who should have recovered, but haven't according to them. [1] The dashboard says 313 recoveries (I think they not be including some separate travel related ones) so there's not much disagreement. Large numbers being tested, delayed results and those still in hospital skew the figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Onchan Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 21 hours ago, Roger Mexico said: The trouble is that both Guernsey and Jersey are now effectively down to zero cases, it's a bit difficult to pretend that elimination is somehow now impossible. They can blame the Great Manx Public and lock up Christopher Christian as often as they like, but people are going to point to those in charge. And all those who have been babbling for 'mitigation' and 'living with the virus' will soon come to dislike the reality when they realise it's just what the UK has been doing for the last year - an endless succession of confusing lockdown of variable severity. But before the end of the last lockdown the vaccine hadn't really been offered to the Great Manx Public. That has now changed things and that is what the UK is relying on to get keep them out of the lockdowns. Once UK has opened up there'll be almost no turning back and if we're not aligned to the UK there'll be one hell of a backlash. DHSC will have to handle whatever is thrown at them, whether it's additional beds or ramped up testing, they will have to meet the challenge. UK has already indicated that they will be ready to kick off in the autumn with another round of vaccination options, possibly tweaked to handle the known variants. Logistics companies are already being advised of this. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 26 minutes ago, Cambon said: Large numbers being tested, delayed results and those still in hospital skew the figures. Well they are Day 13 tests, so results should be known by the 14 days I used, so it's not delays. And there are only 17 in hospital, not 200. So there's something odd going on. Ewart was claiming that this variant had a longer infectious period, but I can't see to over-14 day rates going from under 1% to about 40%. So there's something odd happening that ought to be explained. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LightBulb Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 If the vaccine is only effective for 3 months, then won`t there become a time when those vaccinated will become vulnerable again, to those who have been recently vaccinated ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said: Well they are Day 13 tests, so results should be known by the 14 days I used, so it's not delays. And there are only 17 in hospital, not 200. So there's something odd going on. Ewart was claiming that this variant had a longer infectious period, but I can't see to over-14 day rates going from under 1% to about 40%. So there's something odd happening that ought to be explained. They tried questioning these figures on Monday but got some waffle from Ashford about some changes they had made, given the very low vaccinations at present he’s supposed to be giving a full update on both subjects on Thursday to members and presumably the press briefing as well. They Will be hopeful of better figures by then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambon Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said: Well they are Day 13 tests, so results should be known by the 14 days I used, so it's not delays. And there are only 17 in hospital, not 200. So there's something odd going on. Ewart was claiming that this variant had a longer infectious period, but I can't see to over-14 day rates going from under 1% to about 40%. So there's something odd happening that ought to be explained. As you said earlier, today is 14 days since the 108 peak. The numbers the days before and after were also high. It is not just the positives that are retested on day 14, but also anyone isolating with them. Hundreds were tested today, and hundreds will be tested tomorrow. The figures are a snapshot which will have changed already. It will be playing catch up for the next few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gladys Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 40 minutes ago, Cambon said: As you said earlier, today is 14 days since the 108 peak. The numbers the days before and after were also high. It is not just the positives that are retested on day 14, but also anyone isolating with them. Hundreds were tested today, and hundreds will be tested tomorrow. The figures are a snapshot which will have changed already. It will be playing catch up for the next few days. Is it true that those isolating with a positive testee are also tested if they are asymptomatic? I couldn't find anything to confirm that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambon Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Gladys said: Is it true that those isolating with a positive testee are also tested if they are asymptomatic? I couldn't find anything to confirm that. Yes. If you are asked to isolate as a close contact, but test negative, you are tested on day 1, 7 &13. Anyone isolating with you is not tested unless you eventually test positive. If you are positive, or test positive on day 1/7/13, those isolating with you must then also be tested. Oddly though, if you test negative on day 13, but people you are isolating with test positive, you are free from isolation but the positive cases must continue to isolate until day 21. Seems a bit odd, there you go! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryFuchwit Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Cambon said: As you said earlier, today is 14 days since the 108 peak. The numbers the days before and after were also high. It is not just the positives that are retested on day 14, but also anyone isolating with them. Hundreds were tested today, and hundreds will be tested tomorrow. The figures are a snapshot which will have changed already. It will be playing catch up for the next few days. Is it also possible that not everyone wants to be tested again? Could they simply do 21 days and be left alone if they wanted to? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gladys Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, Cambon said: Yes. If you are asked to isolate as a close contact, but test negative, you are tested on day 1, 7 &13. Anyone isolating with you is not tested unless you eventually test positive. If you are positive, or test positive on day 1/7/13, those isolating with you must then also be tested. Oddly though, if you test negative on day 13, but people you are isolating with test positive, you are free from isolation but the positive cases must continue to isolate until day 21. Seems a bit odd, there you go! So you could have a household split between isolating and not isolating? So, regardless, everyone is out of isolation after 21 days even if one if them only tested positive on day 13. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 25 minutes ago, Cambon said: Oddly though, if you test negative on day 13, but people you are isolating with test positive, you are free from isolation but the positive cases must continue to isolate until day 21. Presumably because you have had it and recovered, and are no longer shedding virus, whilst the people isolating with you who test positive then are still infectious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manx Yeller Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Roger Mexico said: Actually it isn't. 15 days ago on the 8th was the infamous 108 cases day, so you would expect to see that number recover. This isn't a one-off. I reckon that by now there 518 cases in the current outbreak which are past 14 days after the day they were announced as a new case. And yet the number of recoveries based on the change in active cases is only 316[1]. That's about 200 who should have recovered, but haven't according to them. [1] The dashboard says 313 recoveries (I think they not be including some separate travel related ones) so there's not much disagreement. Yes, agree. If you work the other way, and add up the number of cases declared in last 14 days, there's 565 cases but it's showing 766 active cases so matches your roughly 200 cases that in theory should be recovered but aren't. The biggest worry for me on this is that this may show that this strain has a longer infection period, in which case they might need to consider lengthening the 21 day with no test isolation period pretty quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.