IOM Covid removing restrictions

[AcousticallyChallenged]

2 minutes ago, AlanShimmin said:

Herd immunity by the end of August could well be better than no herd immunity as we go barrelling into flu season. 

Perhaps clinically vulnerable people can isolate until September?

That would be great, but they've basically been told that there's no support to do so or official line to do so.

They've been left in the lurch to fend for themselves.

[oooohtony]

7 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

That would be great, but they've basically been told that there's no support to do so or official line to do so.

They've been left in the lurch to fend for themselves.

I really don’t see the issue here so can someone explain?

If these people are that vulnerable, what have they done about flu every other year of their lives?

If someone is so vulnerable they are sure this will make them ill, then so would flu, and that is always circulating and flares up every winter.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

3 minutes ago, oooohtony said:

I really don’t see the issue here so can someone explain?

If these people are that vulnerable, what have they done about flu every other year of their lives?

If someone is so vulnerable they are sure this will make them ill, then so would flu, and that is always circulating and flares up every winter.

Immune system doesn't work? Vaccine won't work particularly well either. Especially if you're on immune-supressants.

Without vaccination protection, COVID is significantly more dangerous than flu, and significantly more endemic in the UK population at the moment. It's also significantly more contagious. The R number for flu without mitigation is generally around 1-1.5*. Enough to keep spreading, but not growing like COVID does. The estimates for Delta is 5-8** without mitigation. Alpha/Kent was 4-5 and the first wave was 3.

*https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480

**https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57431420

So, you're a lot more likely to get it if it is about, it's about more, and you're a lot more likely than flu to be seriously ill from it. I can't see why vulnerable folks are worried about it at all.

Generally, flu isn't circulating at levels of over 600 per 100k either in areas.

[oooohtony]

1 hour ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

Immune system doesn't work? Vaccine won't work particularly well either. Especially if you're on immune-supressants.

Without vaccination protection, COVID is significantly more dangerous than flu, and significantly more endemic in the UK population at the moment. It's also significantly more contagious. The R number for flu without mitigation is generally around 1-1.5*. Enough to keep spreading, but not growing like COVID does. The estimates for Delta is 5-8** without mitigation. Alpha/Kent was 4-5 and the first wave was 3.

*https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480

**https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57431420

So, you're a lot more likely to get it if it is about, it's about more, and you're a lot more likely than flu to be seriously ill from it. I can't see why vulnerable folks are worried about it at all.

Generally, flu isn't circulating at levels of over 600 per 100k either in areas.

Yet, it is currently causing more deaths in the UK than COVID, and has been pretty much ever since the COVID vaccine was in the population at significant levels?

Still don’t get why you would be so worried about COVID now, if you haven’t previously been locked up every winter or doing a very isolated job anyway?

COVID vaccines reduce your chance of contracting it, as well as reducing the chance of someone else shedding it.  This makes your quotes R numbers completely irrelevant (and a bit fearmongery)

I honestly can’t think of anyone now who should be scared enough that they should shield, that wouldn’t basically have been doing that anyway. Eg people undergoing cancer treatment.

When we were dealing with that we were very limited in what we did for months due to a suppressed immune system.  That was well pre COVID.

As far as I am aware we have never tested to see if people have flu when travelling, or out and about, so surely it is currently higher risk than a virus that is being so heavily monitored

Being honest.  It strikes me that if these people are that vulnerable, they should have been shielding for years anyway.  But given the risk is still so small they haven’t bothered, and that those same people have now lost the ability to actually assess a risk due to the fear spreading.

I honestly don’t think people are at anymore risk now than they ever were

Edited July 6, 2021 by oooohtony

[oooohtony]

I am not trying to rubbish anyone else’s opinion or argue.

I genuinely don’t see any data that going forward from now would suggest individuals who are unfortunate enough to be very vulnerable, are anymore vulnerable than they were already to other ailments 

[Andy Onchan]

1 hour ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

That would be great, but they've basically been told that there's no support to do so or official line to do so.

They've been left in the lurch to fend for themselves.

The clinically vulnerable will still have their flu jabs plus the autumn CV top ups. Outside of that what are they being left to fend for? Genuine question. The only 'new' disease that has been added to the list is CV and that's being dealt with. Many, many more people will die of heart related and influenza/.pneumonia diseases than with CV.

[John Wright]

6 minutes ago, oooohtony said:

I really don’t see the issue here so can someone explain?

If these people are that vulnerable, what have they done about flu every other year of their lives?

If someone is so vulnerable they are sure this will make them ill, then so would flu, and that is always circulating and flares up every winter.

Following on from Leukaemia 3 years ago I’m in the vulnerable, immunocompromised, group.

Ive got on with life. I go out and about. I don’t really go to pubs and nightclubs, never have. Not going to go to a football match or big sporting event, but that’s a lifetime aversion/rather watch paint dry thing. I didn’t limit what I did before Covid.

I escaped the ward mid induction and got friends to take me to see shows 100 miles away. 1st weekend out of hospital ( after 11 weeks ) I got on the ferry and drove to Edinburgh for weekend. In the big snow.

Last year I travelled Europe for two months. I’m vaccinated now. Not sure how effective it is for me. But I’m intent on continuing life as normal, theatre, travel, meals out. I’ll wear masks where it’s compulsory. 

But, I’ve no wish to go back into lockdown or restrictions on certain parts of the economy. 

I think it’s a difficult balance. Only time will tell. Some areas in Spain, Barcelona Province of Catalunya, have just closed musical bars and night clubs, after a month of reopening, due to exponential case growth tracked through their app.

[oooohtony]

As an aside.

Nice to see a coach load of tourists parked up at Peel Castle today wondering why one of our main tourist attractions was closed a week after the borders opened and the day after our national day.

Absolute joke this island sometimes.  The MNH website doesn’t even show the actual hours at the moment 

[oooohtony]

14 minutes ago, John Wright said:

Following on from Leukaemia 3 years ago I’m in the vulnerable, immunocompromised, group.

Ive got on with life. I go out and about. I don’t really go to pubs and nightclubs, never have. Not going to go to a football match or big sporting event, but that’s a lifetime aversion/rather watch paint dry thing. I didn’t limit what I did before Covid.

I escaped the ward mid induction and got friends to take me to see shows 100 miles away. 1st weekend out of hospital ( after 11 weeks ) I got on the ferry and drove to Edinburgh for weekend. In the big snow.

Last year I travelled Europe for two months. I’m vaccinated now. Not sure how effective it is for me. But I’m intent on continuing life as normal, theatre, travel, meals out. I’ll wear masks where it’s compulsory. 

But, I’ve no wish to go back into lockdown or restrictions on certain parts of the economy. 

I think it’s a difficult balance. Only time will tell. Some areas in Spain, Barcelona Province of Catalunya, have just closed musical bars and night clubs, after a month of reopening, due to exponential case growth tracked through their app.

Great post John.  My thoughts exactly.

Time for personal choice answers personal responsibility.

In reality that is how it has always been for the vulnerable amongst us.

The only difference now is that this particular very small risk was a much bigger risk last year, and not everyone seems capable of actually interpreting and measuring the greatly reduced risk we have now, and aligning it against all the other risks which are now similar or greater - and have always been there.

[kevster]

5 minutes ago, oooohtony said:

The MNH website doesn’t even show the actual hours at the moment 

Er....

[AlanShimmin]

Just now, kevster said:

Er....

What do they actually want to see? It's shit.

[kevster]

8 minutes ago, oooohtony said:

The MNH website doesn’t even show the actual hours at the moment 

All opening times from the MNH website

 

[Roger Mexico]

4 hours ago, Andy Onchan said:

Latest data from ONS on CV deaths vs. influenza/pneumonia (England & Wales). Full data available from here

 

Worth emphasising two points from that, because people who continually compare Covid and flu often show that not only don't they understand Covid statistics but they don't these ones either.

Firstly these are the figures for Influenza and pneumonia.  We don't know how many of them had viral influenza, but especially at this time of year, it's probably not many.  In most cases what this means is they are elderly patients and/or with multiple serious conditions and their lungs were involved in those.  Unlike someone who dies from Covid there usually won't have been lab tests confirming the presence of a virus except perhaps if there is an influenza epidemic.  So these shouldn't really be treated as deaths from 'flu', unless there is one of those epidemics happening.

Secondly you can see that most of these are 'with' rather than 'from'.  The "underlying cause" - that is what the doctor judged to be the main reason for the death was something else in about 80% of cases.  This contrasts with deaths involving Covid when it makes up around 80% of cases when it is the underlying cause.  In fact when death rates were higher it was nearer 90% for Covid.

[Roger Mexico]

16 minutes ago, oooohtony said:

Nice to see a coach load of tourists parked up at Peel Castle today wondering why one of our main tourist attractions was closed a week after the borders opened and the day after our national day.

And group visits are supposed to be booked in advance, even in pre-Covid times.  They could have also have walked a couple of minutes up the Quay and gone to the House of Manannan, which would have been open.

[Nom de plume]

Loads & I mean loads of kids testing +++ is the word.

She's ripping through the schools at a fair old lick.