IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Utah 01]

14 hours ago, Annoymouse said:

Seems to be a lot of love for both Quayle and Ashford on FB

A possible reflection of the mental age of a lot of Bookface users?

[TheTeapot]

8 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

Indeed.  But have there been any public health warnings about this?  A campaign to remind older and other vulnerable people about what they should be doing in warmer weather would seem to be sensible and so is starting it before things do really get hot.  I haven't seen anything.

https://twitter.com/ManxCare/status/1417865840477753349?s=19

[Utah 01]

28 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Just because the temperature hasn't reached the heights of 31 doesn't mean the relative heat doesn't have an effect.

Indeed.....but consider that since the mid 60s tens (maybe even hundreds) of millions of all ages, including the frail, vulnerable OAPs) have made annual , and for likes of the Canary commuters, multiple visits to the Mediterranean from all over northwest Europe to 'experience' (and happily survive to go back for more and more and more) days-upon (weeks-upon) end of 30C plus temperatures.

I don't recall being handed a 'public health warning sheet' either upon departure from UK or arrival in Med country.  Do you want Nanny State to spoon feed and do everything for you? This past 16 months has deprived far too many on this Island of the capability to even think for themselves, let alone act and take responsibility for their own well-being.

Edited July 22, 2021 by Utah 01

[Andy Onchan]

25 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

Indeed.  But have there been any public health warnings about this?  A campaign to remind older and other vulnerable people about what they should be doing in warmer weather would seem to be sensible and so is starting it before things do really get hot.  I haven't seen anything.

Me neither.... said the same to the missus earlier in the week.

[wrighty]

6 minutes ago, Utah 01 said:

Indeed.....but consider that since the mid 60s tens (maybe even hundreds) of millions of all ages, including the frail, vulnerable OAPs) have made annual , and for likes of the Canary commuters, multiple visits to the Mediterranean from all over northwest Europe to 'experience' (and happily survive to go back for more and more and more) days-upon (weeks-upon) end of 30C plus temperatures.

I don't recall being handed a 'public health warning sheet' either upon departure from UK or arrival in Med country.  Do you want Nanny State to spoon feed and do everything for you? This past 16 months has deprived far too many on this Island of the capability to even think for themselves, let alone act and take responsibility for their own well-being.

I'm not talking about the club 18-30 holidaymakers, nor even the retirees who spend half the year in Tenerife (although we see a fair few of those each year coming back after falling down the stairs of the apartment).  I mean people for whom it's a genuine effort, or maybe even need help, to get themselves to the toilet, or are perhaps incontinent and get a carer coming in a couple of times a day to help them out.  I don't personally need a leaflet to be given to me prior to my next holiday - whenever that may be - but some quite possibly do.

[thommo2010]

Covid briefing at 4pm today

[Numbnuts]

1 minute ago, thommo2010 said:

Covid briefing at 4pm today

Expected , by me anyway... hopefully its a policy driven briefing and not a bad news one .

[thommo2010]

Just now, Numbnuts said:

Expected , by me anyway... hopefully its a policy driven briefing and not a bad news one .

They were talking about border relaxation yesterday so hopefully something about that

[AcousticallyChallenged]

33 minutes ago, Utah 01 said:

Indeed.....but consider that since the mid 60s tens (maybe even hundreds) of millions of all ages, including the frail, vulnerable OAPs) have made annual , and for likes of the Canary commuters, multiple visits to the Mediterranean from all over northwest Europe to 'experience' (and happily survive to go back for more and more and more) days-upon (weeks-upon) end of 30C plus temperatures.

I don't recall being handed a 'public health warning sheet' either upon departure from UK or arrival in Med country.  Do you want Nanny State to spoon feed and do everything for you? This past 16 months has deprived far too many on this Island of the capability to even think for themselves, let alone act and take responsibility for their own well-being.

But, you can’t make direct comparisons between the temperature here and temperature in somewhere built for it. 

Much like how Texas froze over in the way that it did, none of our architecture or infrastructure is really built for sustained heat. Our houses are typically designed to trap every ounce of heat. In most of the Med, public taps and drinking fountains are common place, the tall buildings in many streets in Florence for example, shade you from the sun. The buildings themselves made to keep the heat out or promote airflow.

You can ask plenty of people from hot countries who will concur that temperatures in the UK feel disproportionately hot compared to say India, Australia, the Med etc. 

But, no. Utah has decreed they are silly. 

Edited July 22, 2021 by AcousticallyChallenged

[wrighty]

@BenFairfax - I've been looking at the model you've put out and have a couple of points I think it's worth making.  I don't really do Twitter, so I'll put them here.

You use a hospitalisation rate of 1.23%.  The slider on the website is quite granular, at least on my computer, and the neighbouring options would be 0.43% or 2.04%, with nothing in between.  How have you chosen 1.23%? It seems rather high to me.  The overall test-positive admission rate in the UK second wave was about 7%, with (my) estimated case ascertainment rate of 30%.  This was in an unvaccinated population.  Your susceptible population of 14765 (chosen, again, by the granularity of the slider) will have a much younger demographic structure and hence a much reduced requirement for hospital admission.  Need for admission varies in proportion to exp(0.044*age), i.e. halving every 15 years younger.

Same goes for length of stay.  You've used 9.42 days.  I think for youngsters it's a bit shorter.

Finally, R.  3.35 may be about right as an R0, but your initial susceptible population of 14765 will be 'diluted' by 70000 who are vaccinated.  This should reduce the effective R to something rather less.  It might be difficult to do, but what's the R if 'admitted to hospital because of covid' is the case definition, rather than a positive PCR?

My conclusion is that this model is too unreliable to be used as a predictive tool - I looked at it last year and thought the sensitivity of the input variables was too high then.

[Nom de plume]

4 minutes ago, wrighty said:

@BenFairfax - I've been looking at the model you've put out and have a couple of points I think it's worth making.  I don't really do Twitter, so I'll put them here.

You use a hospitalisation rate of 1.23%.  The slider on the website is quite granular, at least on my computer, and the neighbouring options would be 0.43% or 2.04%, with nothing in between.  How have you chosen 1.23%? It seems rather high to me.  The overall test-positive admission rate in the UK second wave was about 7%, with (my) estimated case ascertainment rate of 30%.  This was in an unvaccinated population.  Your susceptible population of 14765 (chosen, again, by the granularity of the slider) will have a much younger demographic structure and hence a much reduced requirement for hospital admission.  Need for admission varies in proportion to exp(0.044*age), i.e. halving every 15 years younger.

Same goes for length of stay.  You've used 9.42 days.  I think for youngsters it's a bit shorter.

Finally, R.  3.35 may be about right as an R0, but your initial susceptible population of 14765 will be 'diluted' by 70000 who are vaccinated.  This should reduce the effective R to something rather less.  It might be difficult to do, but what's the R if 'admitted to hospital because of covid' is the case definition, rather than a positive PCR?

My conclusion is that this model is too unreliable to be used as a predictive tool - I looked at it last year and thought the sensitivity of the input variables was too high then.

That sounds a very polite way of saying ….

Well, you know. 

[NoTailT]

Howard o'clock at 5pm today. No proposed changes - apparently - if you read the thread.

 

Edited July 22, 2021 by NoTailT

[Ham_N_Eggs]

1 minute ago, NoTailT said:

Howard o'clock at 5pm today. No proposed changes - apparently - if you read the thread.

 

Probably just to assure us that they've got this all under control.... even though they haven't.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

15 minutes ago, Ham_N_Eggs said:

Probably just to assure us that they've got this all under control.... even though they haven't.

Good afternoon everyone fastyr mie. I’ve always said that our Island would be following Manx solutions for Manx problems. Throughout the pandemic, we’ve needed fast, decisive and clear action to tackle outbreaks of COVID-19 on our shores. 

With the Council of Ministers, we have decided the time is right to go back to our roots. With this, we are moving into the Traa Dy Liooar phase of our pandemic response. A true Manx solution, where we can take our time, and still beam my face onto thousands of screens.

We won’t be taking questions from the media today, we don’t like Manx Radio, they were mean to me, and I don’t want to give the rest of them a chance. 

Thank you, stay safe and good evening. 

[Nom de plume]

1 hour ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

Good afternoon everyone fastyr mie. I’ve always said that our Island would be following Manx solutions for Manx problems. Throughout the pandemic, we’ve needed fast, decisive and clear action to tackle outbreaks of COVID-19 on our shores. 

With the Council of Ministers, we have decided the time is right to go back to our roots. With this, we are moving into the Traa Dy Liooar phase of our pandemic response. A true Manx solution, where we can take our time, and still beam my face onto thousands of screens.

We won’t be taking questions from the media today, we don’t like Manx Radio, they were mean to me, and I don’t want to give the rest of them a chance. 

Thank you, stay safe and good evening. 

Serious question:

What measures / restrictions would you empower over your people from 5.15pm today if you were Chief Minister?

Edited July 22, 2021 by Nom de plume