Andy Onchan Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 There's an interesting article in the DT this morning about big reductions in genome sequencing for arrivals from Amber and even Red listed countries: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/22/staggering-drop-sequencing-pcr-tests-track-covid-variants/ I'll be happy to pass on a pdf version for those interested in reading it and who don't have a DT account. Just DM me and I'll send it over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Annoymouse Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 We aren’t even doing Genomic sequencing are we? There has been no mention of the variant for some time either, I think it’s just assumed it’s Delta. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoTailT Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Annoymouse said: We aren’t even doing Genomic sequencing are we? There has been no mention of the variant for some time either, I think it’s just assumed it’s Delta. Given practically all of UK cases are Delta, I think its kind of expected. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
747-400 Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, Annoymouse said: We aren’t even doing Genomic sequencing are we? There has been no mention of the variant for some time either, I think it’s just assumed it’s Delta. I thought Liverpool have been doing it since Janaury? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 12 hours ago, TheTeapot said: 4 times! What a load of shit. I've done a bit of a search and there don't seem to be records (at least that I can find) of more than two infections with Covid from proven different strains. And that is rare. Most of the early reports of having covid multiple times are actually multiple positive tests from the same infection, sometimes months later. So called 'persistent shedders'. And immunity from infection should last for several months, so being infected 4 times in the 16 months or so since this all kicked off is, how should I say it, unlikely. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Grumpy Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 4 hours ago, cissolt said: What are your thoughts on Henrietta's comment that models don't work on the Isle of Man? A bit like some civil servants? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, 747-400 said: I thought Liverpool have been doing it since Janaury? Still working on the samples from New Years Eve? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Onchan Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, wrighty said: I've done a bit of a search and there don't seem to be records (at least that I can find) of more than two infections with Covid from proven different strains. And that is rare. Most of the early reports of having covid multiple times are actually multiple positive tests from the same infection, sometimes months later. So called 'persistent shedders'. And immunity from infection should last for several months, so being infected 4 times in the 16 months or so since this all kicked off is, how should I say it, unlikely. It's porkie pies then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Non-Believer Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 Just now, Andy Onchan said: It's porkie pies then. To be filed with The Letter and The Shredding? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, wrighty said: I've done a bit of a search and there don't seem to be records (at least that I can find) of more than two infections with Covid from proven different strains. And that is rare. Most of the early reports of having covid multiple times are actually multiple positive tests from the same infection, sometimes months later. So called 'persistent shedders'. And immunity from infection should last for several months, so being infected 4 times in the 16 months or so since this all kicked off is, how should I say it, unlikely. You being the professional that you are should probably say unlikely. Me being a commoner will call it like it is - a load of shit. Ashford is a liar, a bad one at that. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanShimmin Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, wrighty said: So called 'persistent shedders'. Or the Health Minister the Persistent Shredder. 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ham_N_Eggs Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, TheTeapot said: You being the professional that you are should probably say unlikely. Me being a commoner will call it like it is - a load of shit. Ashford is a liar, a bad one at that. But he does it so smoothly that the public lap it up. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CallMeCurious Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 CoMin "We don't need to even consult the experts. It's all about the economy now" A few days later. Hospital starts seeing more cases week one of 4th (or is it 5th wave) before further relaxation of rules CoMin "Shit! How can we blame the experts when we've said we ignored them? Oh well, let's try it anyway, they (the public) won't notice" No approval for debate of relaxation of rules CoMin "Phew, we can at least blame the elected politicians for crippling the economy again" No LFT kits available until next week. CoMin "Phew, that'll stop the buggers going for tests and keep the numbers down. Remember if you don't test, they won't exist" Inadequate planning and preperation for surge of testing needed, some members of the public frustrated by this. CoMin "Blame the public for not being too aggressive/impatient" Claim all the credit but deflect all blame. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenFairfax Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, iom_dave said: Is that with or without mask? Are drinking pint in beer garden? I would, also assume you have risk preference for not becoming infected i.e. you are a 2+2. I also assume you already use behavior to mitigate other risks such as looking before you cross the road, wash hand after loo, cover mouth when cough at dinner table etc. Naturally, not suggesting we mandate how adults cross roads, but you remember those PH Green Cross Road ads from the 80s (that put fear of God into little kids), or the 90s AIDS PH ads, I would not go that stark but some clear PH messaging I feel at least at this point would add value to process, and reduce the number of 2+2s in high risk group who could potentially end up in Nobles. 3 hours ago, Hugh G Rection said: Jesus christ almighty, I would suggest you bring a spare mask...in case you get a hole-in-one. Hope you have a tee-riffic day. Don't go poisoning members of the public with your par-right views. Don't foreget to social distance. No ifs, ands or putts. Thanks Nom, and have a great day tiger. My 2 cents, is people can take whatever risk they want with themselves but should not put others at risk. For example, my daughter going to Summer Hols Camp Party Mayhem for 3 weeks, but she will not be going to church and sitting next to and chatting with old dears at church over this period. Edited July 23, 2021 by BenFairfax Quality of my literacy education. Thankfully, kids after me had SATS, Ofsted & Ofqual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenFairfax Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 6 hours ago, wrighty said: This is not herd immunity. Social behaviour and risk tolerance will affect effective R which determines the proportion of subjects needed to be immune, but that is all. Conceptually the notion of Herd Immunity in SEIR model is completely analogous to Optimal Portfolio on Efficient Frontier from Markovitz Theory, in general how I was interpreting with regard to model I produced at: https://sites.google.com/webcabcomponents.com/seir-model-of-iom-natural-wave/home/effective-r-herd-immunity-and-seir-model?authuser=0 Could detail more, but think priority is to explain implications and high risk 2+2 not taking mitigation over the next 4 weeks. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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