IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Flyingfemme]

1 hour ago, Andy Onchan said:

There's an interesting article in the DT this morning about big reductions in genome sequencing for arrivals from Amber and even Red listed countries: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/22/staggering-drop-sequencing-pcr-tests-track-covid-variants/

Hardly surprising, is it? Governments all over the world are short of cash and looking at lowered incomes for the foreseeable. Tests cost money and don't really add much to the picture - unless you are Australia and only have a handful of "cases".

Have we ever tested, tracked, traced, sequenced any other cold/flu bug in this way?

[BenFairfax]

6 hours ago, wrighty said:

This is not herd immunity. Social behaviour and risk tolerance will affect effective R which determines the proportion of subjects needed to be immune, but that is all. 

They are equivalent and I could prove this, the Natural Wave will find its resting point at Herd Immunity (by definition, if helps I could get 2nd opinion from specialist in area, I work in finance but math's is very small world, i.e. be a chum or a chum of a chum). Also would add network structure of social interactions. I.e. if border such that cut off seeders then 'effective R' goes down, and energy stops being pushed into this wave. Glad CoMIN did not decide to push any more juice into this wave with further border relaxation at this point. I am not a medic, but as a lay person getting bit edgy regarding what Nobles remand will be in a month, versus its capacity. 

With regard to R, Herd Immunity & Portfolio Theory not sure anyone would read it but me, you, and maybe 2 others, but I could in time produce more details. So far only have endless twitter posts and this:

 https://sites.google.com/webcabcomponents.com/seir-model-of-iom-natural-wave/home/effective-r-herd-immunity-and-seir-model?authuser=0

Portfolio Theory bit at the end, I thought motivated the notion in this way made it clearer to others which was my only intension.

[BenFairfax]

1 hour ago, Annoymouse said:

We aren’t even doing Genomic sequencing are we? There has been no mention of the variant for some time either, I think it’s just assumed it’s Delta.

Great if we were, Dr G could tell us exactly where/when/who was the Day 0 seeder event. Last I heard is UK now 98%+ Delta and all travelers (well 99%+) come from UK.

[Andy Onchan]

2 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

Great if we were, Dr G could tell us exactly where/when/who was the Day 0 seeder event. Last I heard is UK now 98%+ Delta and all travelers (well 99%+) come from UK.

Ben - How long have you been doing these COVID forecasts/models?

[Non-Believer]

38 minutes ago, Ham_N_Eggs said:

But he does it so smoothly that the public lap it up.

And some actually vote for him.....maybe he's now looking for the "Four doses sympathy Vote" in September?

[Annoymouse]

1 hour ago, Roxanne said:

I’ve just been in the coop and there are only two members of staff in. The rest are all off ‘sick’. So, yes, I think we can safely assume it’s Delta. 

How can you safely assume it’s Delta? people would be off sick if it was Beta or Alpha too. Anyway that’s besides the point, the reason to monitor the variant is to record any possible sign of a mutation, something I don’t think is even of any concern, let alone being monitored.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

The latest EAG release is here: https://www.gov.im/media/1373700/interim-eag-advice-paper-1.pdf

[AlanShimmin]

14 minutes ago, Annoymouse said:

How can you safely assume it’s Delta? people would be off sick if it was Beta or Alpha too. Anyway that’s besides the point, the reason to monitor the variant is to record any possible sign of a mutation, something I don’t think is even of any concern, let alone being monitored.

 

Get ahead of the wave and start buying the Gamma variant hype. 

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/10/21-1427_article

 

They've also got the Lambda on the bench  

 

[iom_dave]

15 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

The latest EAG release is here: https://www.gov.im/media/1373700/interim-eag-advice-paper-1.pdf

One thing, i think the numbers they are comparing to Europe are out by a factor of 7:

The current Isle of Man rate of infection per 100,000 is roughly 277. For context, in Europe, only Cyprus, Gibraltar, the UK, Netherlands and Spain are higher. 1

The number of cases in Europe are quoted in terms of per week (as far as I can tell), whereas the IOM is running at 277 per day while the UK is 755 per fortnight.

https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html#global-overview-tab

Really hoping I've got the wrong end of the stick somewhere.

Edited July 23, 2021 by iom_dave
i think the uk is per fortnight not week...

[AcousticallyChallenged]

13 minutes ago, AlanShimmin said:

 

Get ahead of the wave and start buying the Gamma variant hype. 

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/10/21-1427_article

 

They've also got the Lambda on the bench  

 

Wait til you hear there's 24 letters in the Greek alphabet!

[BenFairfax]

1 hour ago, Roxanne said:

That’s the charm of them. Got many a man and a woman into heartache. This time it’s in a grand scale. 

What amazes me, is made few off the cuff edgy comments, in finance be standard banter, and everyone gets annoyed and even got admin warning, but presented models which implied we are looking a significant avoidable acute illness in 2+2 High Risk group and no one bats an eye lid. 

[Gladys]

2 hours ago, wrighty said:

I've done a bit of a search and there don't seem to be records (at least that I can find) of more than two infections with Covid from proven different strains.  And that is rare.  Most of the early reports of having covid multiple times are actually multiple positive tests from the same infection, sometimes months later.  So called 'persistent shedders'.  And immunity from infection should last for several months, so being infected 4 times in the 16 months or so since this all kicked off is, how should I say it, unlikely.

So, we are to take DA's comments with a pinch of the proverbial?

[Danoo]

2 hours ago, CallMeCurious said:

CoMin "We don't need to even consult the experts. It's all about the economy now"

A few days later.  Hospital starts seeing more cases week one of 4th (or is it 5th wave) before further relaxation of rules

CoMin "Shit! How can we blame the experts when we've said we ignored them? Oh well, let's try it anyway, they (the public) won't notice"

No approval for debate of relaxation of rules

CoMin "Phew, we can at least blame the elected politicians for crippling the economy again"

No LFT kits available until next week.

CoMin "Phew, that'll stop the buggers going for tests and keep the numbers down. Remember if you don't test, they won't exist"

Inadequate planning and preperation for surge of testing needed, some members of the public frustrated by this.

CoMin "Blame the public for not being too aggressive/impatient"

Claim all the credit but deflect all blame.

 

  

 

 

 

 

We don't need a debate on relaxation of the rules.

We can't keep making knee jerk reactions every time we have a rise in cases. The show must go on. People can exert their own risk management in their own sphere of influence but we need to stop looking for more government intervention and start to use our own discretion if we are to move forwards now.   

[iom_dave]

6 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

What amazes me, is made few off the cuff edgy comments, in finance be standard banter, and everyone gets annoyed and even got admin warning, but presented models which implied we are looking a significant avoidable acute illness in 2+2 High Risk group and no one bats an eye lid. 

Random question, have you had a look at the gov.je website.  I think they might have an actual epidemiologist.

https://www.gov.je/Health/Coronavirus/pages/coronaviruscases.aspx

They have an R - currently 1.4-1.7

 

And per here 10 people in hospital.  Looking roughly, they seem to be a couple of weeks ahead.

https://www.itv.com/news/channel/2020-03-12/live-updates-number-of-coronavirus-cases-in-the-channel-islands

 

 

[Manx Yeller]

Just when I thought I couldn't dislike the CM more.....

The Chief Minister Howard Quayle MHK said:

'Overnight, a number of members of Tynwald have approached ministers to request that the Government again brings forward the proposed changes to the Island’s COVID-19 regulations. The Council of Ministers has agreed to do so.

'I hope those members of Tynwald who were unsure, or who wanted to more fully consider the proposals, have had the time they need. The changes we are proposing broadly reflect a workshop with Tynwald members held on 8 July. 

'If Tynwald votes the same as yesterday, then I must be clear that the changes proposed will not be brought forward.'

 

So Tynwald members say they'd like advice from EAG before voting and HQ slags them off for doing so. EAG get 5 minutes notice to provide some advice on it before a meeting but don't get all the information. They say they'll issue a further more in-depth analysis by middle of next week and CM says vote for it today or I'll take my ball away. Ridiculous.