IOM Covid removing restrictions

[ellanvannin2010]

There are several areas in the world that are now having to put local lockdown measures back in place. Be interesting to see how these work out.

 We have a near normal life here now.

Surely it makes sense to just wait and see for several more weeks before we consider any moves. It would do far more damage to the economy if we had to go back to the situation that we had in April than to wait for a while longer.

 

Edited July 7, 2020 by ellanvannin2010

[TheTeapot]

26 minutes ago, ellanvannin2010 said:

There are several areas in the world that are now having to put local lockdown measures back in place. Be interesting to see how these work out.

 We have a near normal life here now.

Surely it makes sense to just wait and see for several more weeks before we consider any moves. It would do far more damage to the economy if we had to go back to the situation that we had in April than to wait for a while longer.

 

Of course it does. Unfortunately there are too many people who disagree. I can only assume these people want us to go backwards. I don't. 

[John Wright]

58 minutes ago, ellanvannin2010 said:

There are several areas in the world that are now having to put local lockdown measures back in place. Be interesting to see how these work out.

 We have a near normal life here now.

Surely it makes sense to just wait and see for several more weeks before we consider any moves. It would do far more damage to the economy if we had to go back to the situation that we had in April than to wait for a while longer.

 

But we are going slowly and the 5 stage plan for opening the borders is flexible. I find it frustrating that the triggers for moving from stage to stage aren’t set out, but I understand why.

I don’t see what has happened in New Zealand or Jersey as a siren warning. Instead I see it as vindication of controlled movement with testing on arrival and quarantine/isolation.

Asymptomatic carriers were identified at the border, their contacts are being traced, Covid hasn’t got out into the community.

I’m surprised it isn’t being looked at here. We should be planning how to do arrival testing, shorter isolation, permanent facilities, testing again after 7 days. That will require additional testing capacity or quicker turn over or running the machines 24/7.

We need to look at how this is funded, tax payer or traveller pays.

The problem about closed borders is that there isn’t a known readily achievable exit. There’s no exit plan. And it all depends on our neighbours, wherever the planes and boats come from being able to control Covid. And we know they haven’t, won’t, can’t, so far.

[gettafa]

A rolling system of arrival quarantine, testing and tagging could work.

The infrastructure is there. The Isle of Man could be showing the world.

The virus isn't going away anytime soon.

[TheTeapot]

I wonder how that person on the Jersey flight feels now. Didn't know they had the virus but now all those people he/she was sat close to are in forced quarantine for a couple of weeks. Not on purpose of course, but that's rough on those who just happened to be sat close by. How would you feel if that was you coming back to the Isle of Man? People determined to travel need to have a bit of a think about the impact they could have on others.

[John Wright]

Just now, TheTeapot said:

I wonder how that person on the Jersey flight feels now. Didn't know they had the virus but now all those people he/she was sat close to are in forced quarantine for a couple of weeks. Not on purpose of course, but that's rough on those who just happened to be sat close by. How would you feel if that was you coming back to the Isle of Man? People determined to travel need to have a bit of a think about the impact they could have on others.

But that’s just it.

Now that shielding is gone, now that community levels here and Guernsey and Jersey are zero, then as long as there are proper border screening and testing provisions and isolation, isn’t it it a personal risk assessment?

Yes, you should take into account the risk to yourself and others.

But we do that day in and day out within everyday activities. It’s why I don’t do DIY or use a kitchen knife. I do it when I drive, we all do.  Of course we tend to over exaggerate our ability, thus down playing risk to others. That’s why the concept and regulations of H&SatW exist.

Last November I booked a euro ferry and road trip. Away 8 weeks from mid August. If the IOM hasn’t removed the return restriction I won’t go. I’m fine with 14 days isolation on return.

Apart from the Steam Packet none of the tickets are refundable. That’s €2000. Insurance won’t pay out if they’re running. Each crossing is overnight with a cabin. The shipping lines are operating reduced capacity, insisting on passengers having a cabin. All insist on face masks. I’ll take my own food. Stay in cabin. 

Where I’m going in Spain is 5 houses and the local authority area hasn’t had one Covid case. Nor has the next door local authority with the nearest shop.

But I’m watching the nearest big towns and resorts. Same in Italy ( which I’m just crossing from west to east) and Greece which I’m transiting. The town I’m booked into in Bulgaria has had no cases since April.

In each case the property I’m staying in is mine. 

No idea if I’ll go, but I’ll be packed and ready. Then decide in the run up. And I’ll balance my health, the risk to me as someone formerly categorised as an extremely vulnerable person and I’ll think about the risk to others I come across on my travels and return.

Am I being selfish?

[TheTeapot]

13 minutes ago, John Wright said:

But that’s just it.

Now that shielding is gone, now that community levels here and Guernsey and Jersey are zero, then as long as there are proper border screening and testing provisions and isolation, isn’t it it a personal risk assessment?

Yes, you should take into account the risk to yourself and others.

[...]

Am I being selfish?

It is now a personal risk assessment. And from your description you look like you are planning to take sensible precautions. Many people simply won't. I can't make a judgment on whether you are being selfish, that's for you to decide, I personally wouldn't be undertaking such a trip, I'd try my hardest with the various companies to get it delayed a year if you can't get refunds. But again, it's a personal choice.

My point was really about how someone would feel if they were unfortunate enough to be responsible for putting  a bunch of people into a quarantine situation. I'd feel pretty shitty about it myself. I suspect many others just wouldn't care.

Edit - I want to go to Liverpool when they eventually have the parade for WINNING THE LEAGUE and party my head off, but I have to think pretty carefully whether to do so. Not because I'm worried about getting the virus for my own health, but because of how I'd feel if I inadvertently passed it on back here.

Edited July 7, 2020 by TheTeapot

[John Wright]

5 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

It is now a personal risk assessment. And from your description you look like you are planning to take sensible precautions. Many people simply won't. I can't make a judgment on whether you are being selfish, that's for you to decide, I personally wouldn't be undertaking such a trip, I'd try my hardest with the various companies to get it delayed a year if you can't get refunds. But again, it's a personal choice.

My point was really about how someone would feel if they were unfortunate enough to be responsible for putting  a bunch of people into a quarantine situation. I'd feel pretty shitty about it myself. I suspect many others just wouldn't care.

Edit - I want to go to Liverpool when they eventually have the parade for WINNING THE LEAGUE and party my head off, but I have to think pretty carefully whether to do so. Not because I'm worried about getting the virus for my own health, but because of how I'd feel if I inadvertently passed it on back here.

My Italian and Greek isn’t up to arguing the toss. Paul got shafted by one in March coming home early from his ski trip. He arrived 24 hours early, they wouldn’t change his ticket. 21.45 they sold him a new ticket, €300 euros. 22.00 Spain closed its air and ferry entry ports to travellers from Italy who weren’t Spanish passport holders or registered resident with a DNI. Refused boarding. No refund. I’ve been trying ever since. Roman shrugs all round. They just ignore.

But you’re talking about going into a non distancing crowd of nutters. That’s very different.

You wouldn’t inadvertently pass it on here, would you, you’re going to be isolated, at least, and hopefully tested on arrival and before release from isolation.

The big question is whether you can pass it on, or acquire it, in the airport in Liverpool or whilst on the plane. Given how airplane ventilation works, a full change of fresh air every 3 minutes, no recirculating, air entering at top and drawn out at bottom, then, with mask wearing, the risk is very very small.

[Non-Believer]

The problem is, against an invisible virus that takes up to 14 days to incubate, affects such a range of people in such different fashions and can be spread by unknowing, asymptomatic carriers; for many it will be less of a personal risk assessment and more of a game of Russian Roulette.

[NoTail]

26 minutes ago, John Wright said:

Am I being selfish?

I am in a very similar situation.  I want to do an 8 week trip to remote bits of France in my super new motorhome.  Waiting for level 4 to be announded.

[Gladys]

38 minutes ago, John Wright said:

But that’s just it.

Now that shielding is gone, now that community levels here and Guernsey and Jersey are zero, then as long as there are proper border screening and testing provisions and isolation, isn’t it it a personal risk assessment?

Yes, you should take into account the risk to yourself and others.

But we do that day in and day out within everyday activities. It’s why I don’t do DIY or use a kitchen knife. I do it when I drive, we all do.  Of course we tend to over exaggerate our ability, thus down playing risk to others. That’s why the concept and regulations of H&SatW exist.

Last November I booked a euro ferry and road trip. Away 8 weeks from mid August. If the IOM hasn’t removed the return restriction I won’t go. I’m fine with 14 days isolation on return.

Apart from the Steam Packet none of the tickets are refundable. That’s €2000. Insurance won’t pay out if they’re running. Each crossing is overnight with a cabin. The shipping lines are operating reduced capacity, insisting on passengers having a cabin. All insist on face masks. I’ll take my own food. Stay in cabin. 

Where I’m going in Spain is 5 houses and the local authority area hasn’t had one Covid case. Nor has the next door local authority with the nearest shop.

But I’m watching the nearest big towns and resorts. Same in Italy ( which I’m just crossing from west to east) and Greece which I’m transiting. The town I’m booked into in Bulgaria has had no cases since April.

In each case the property I’m staying in is mine. 

No idea if I’ll go, but I’ll be packed and ready. Then decide in the run up. And I’ll balance my health, the risk to me as someone formerly categorised as an extremely vulnerable person and I’ll think about the risk to others I come across on my travels and return.

Am I being selfish?

No.  

[Black Mirror]

Here is a brief update about the Covid-19 pandemic in the countries that did not lockdown. Sweden, Switzerland and Japan are by no means the only countries that avoided draconian restrictions, but they are the most reputable. Among the three, Switzerland is the only one that closed some business temporarily, but even there the social distancing was voluntary and it has been fully reopened and been connected to the outside world since the 11th of May (all trains have been running on normal schedule since then). In all three, stay-at-home orders were never mandatory, social distancing was voluntary; very few restrictions were placed on businesses. They are all three through the pandemic, as you can see from the graphs below.

I was skiing in Switzerland for a good part of January and February. In Zermatt the Chinese were by far the most frequent non-European foreign nationality. There were so many of them… Switzerland was hit hard by Covid-19; two months before this island on the edge of Europe we call home. We cannot pretend that we had a good pandemic, an intelligent one, in the British islands.

Now I know that in newspapers you are often reading a different story about the risk profile of this virus; including on right-wing newspapers and on financial newspapers. Like these two misleading articles just published:

Spain’s herd immunity prospects dashed as just 5pc of population has Covid-19 antibodies
Widespread coronavirus protection impossible to achieve without numerous deaths in susceptible populations
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/06/spains-herd-immunity-prospects-dashed-just-5-population-has/

Immunity to the coronavirus is ‘fragile’ and ‘short-lived,’ immunologist warns
“It is not a “safe bet” to rely on immunity to Covid-19 as a strategy for coping with the pandemic, one expert has warned, adding that herd immunity strategies were ‘probably never going to work’”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/06/immunity-to-coronavirus-is-fragile-and-short-lived-expert-warns.html

They are all so incredibly stupid! I already explained the rationale of my thinking and I won’t go through it again. I just point to one kind of figures that is more reliable than most other indicators. Financial markets, especially US stock indexes, have been truly buoyant for a while. I made my mind in early April about this virus; and managed the my investments accordingly and it has worked very well. I tend to have the last laugh in life.

 

 

 

[John Wright]

1 hour ago, NoTail said:

I am in a very similar situation.  I want to do an 8 week trip to remote bits of France in my super new motorhome.  Waiting for level 4 to be announded.

What did you get?

[Ďouglas Peel]

1 hour ago, John Wright said:

My Italian and Greek isn’t up to arguing the toss. Paul got shafted by one in March coming home early from his ski trip. He arrived 24 hours early, they wouldn’t change his ticket. 21.45 they sold him a new ticket, €300 euros. 22.00 Spain closed its air and ferry entry ports to travellers from Italy who weren’t Spanish passport holders or registered resident with a DNI. Refused boarding. No refund. I’ve been trying ever since. Roman shrugs all round. They just ignore.

But you’re talking about going into a non distancing crowd of nutters. That’s very different.

You wouldn’t inadvertently pass it on here, would you, you’re going to be isolated, at least, and hopefully tested on arrival and before release from isolation.

The big question is whether you can pass it on, or acquire it, in the airport in Liverpool or whilst on the plane. Given how airplane ventilation works, a full change of fresh air every 3 minutes, no recirculating, air entering at top and drawn out at bottom, then, with mask wearing, the risk is very very small.

A Friend of mine,who  just retired as an airplane tech/ mechanic at Glasgow airport,said that British Airways were the only company who changed the cabin air filters at the proper intervals,and most others didnt, he is concerned about this and wont fly just now.

[Manximus Aururaneus]

1 hour ago, NoTail said:

I am in a very similar situation.  I want to do an 8 week trip to remote bits of France in my super new motorhome.  Waiting for level 4 to be announded.

Similar here, 6 weeks Norway then Morocco for winter.