IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Gladys]

13 minutes ago, Lost Login said:

 

All the above is to do with basic Covid 19 testing and not the Genomic "testing". At times I think the two get confused or interlinked.

 

  

Firstly, she is Dr Glover, as in PhD.

Secondly, I am not sure many of us are confusing the two.   Simply, testing is "do you have it" and genome testing is "what do you have". 

What we are saying is she is an microbiologist with expertise in really little things and finding them.  We do not have anyone else with that expertise.  What we are fighting at the moment is a really little thing, and even smaller bits of it. 

If you have read any of her tweets, she found the very machine needed to set up the lab for testing, unused, under a cover and had another bit of kit needed.  She trained other staff and from all accounts, even our beloved leaders before the spat, had set up a world beating facility so we could "test,test, test"  We did not have a basic covid testing facility.

Yet we stopped testing, contrary to her very learned opinion.  Cynics may say it was because we didn't want any positives. Others may think that testing regardless of required isolation is a good idea because you would have a better understanding of where it is and how it was behaving.  Testing, regardless of isolation, would have revealed the 1886 case, probably, and would have indicated that the then requirement of only returnees isolating in a household was not right. Surveillance being a very useful tool in any war.

Lastly, it would also help in understanding if there were any changes in the virus, such as incubation period and infectiousness, such as we have with the new variant. 

The genome sequencing is a development from the testing that would seem to be a very useful source of information in the fight.  We could quickly identify if we had a variant found elsewhere which would indicate a different approach.  We no longer have that and have to send away for sequencing, with at least a two week turn around. 

Having those capabilities will greatly assist in future, allowing greater freedom and a sophisticated approach to borders.  That is all. 

[Roger Mexico]

1 hour ago, Lost Login said:

 Any new cases now should be travel cases, caught pre lockdown and they are already in isolation or caught from a party you are isolating with.

Unfortunately not.  The most recent case in the community (not in isolation, not linked to known cases) was only on Thursday and there were similar cases every one of the four days before.  So any of those could have been infecting loads of other people and those in turn infecting others.  We won't know for weeks yet.

Again genomics could help trace where these came from; tracing could help identify contacts, especially medium risk ones; testing of such people would help identify and isolate further cases; re-testing would make sure that close contacts remained negative.

I have no idea if these things are happening (apart from the genomics which isn't) and with regard to testing even the DHSC doesn't seem to know what  280-ish or so daily tests are for - many may be the 1/7/14-day ones on returning travellers.

[2bees]

Doctor Glover has offered to help for free - wtff are they waiting for? Grrrrrr 

[Apple]

Clinical staff want to be sure they will not be accused if and when the right resources are not avaiable

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55689388

Quite right, but not a problem for us...is it?

This for me is where the responsibilities and accountabilities start to get blurred. There have been cases where staff have been sacked, then reinstated,  when insufficient systems and processes let down otherwise good clinical treatment.

 

[Lost Login]

7 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

Unfortunately not.  The most recent case in the community (not in isolation, not linked to known cases) was only on Thursday and there were similar cases every one of the four days before.  So any of those could have been infecting loads of other people and those in turn infecting others.  We won't know for weeks yet.

Again genomics could help trace where these came from; tracing could help identify contacts, especially medium risk ones; testing of such people would help identify and isolate further cases; re-testing would make sure that close contacts remained negative.

I have no idea if these things are happening (apart from the genomics which isn't) and with regard to testing even the DHSC doesn't seem to know what  280-ish or so daily tests are for - many may be the 1/7/14-day ones on returning travellers.

As I understand it most cases show up with 5 to 10 days with very few after after day 14. We are now into, I think day 11, of the lockdown, so the chances of new cases not linked to known cases is diminishing everyday. We have had only something like 30 cases which are not day 1, 7 or 13 cases and a good percentage of those are family members  or people who were self isolating as they were a close contact case and therefore only infectious after they started self isolating. Of the four cases you refer to for part of the period they were infectious the current restrictions were in place and any high risk contacts of these people would have been traced and required to self isolate. We might have a few cases from these the next week or so hopefully those people are already in self isolation. Only time will tell but presently it appears that a pretty good job has been to date in tracking contacts and stopping transmission. Certainly there appears to be no increase in numbers so there at present appears to be no indication "any of those could have been infecting loads of other people and those in turn infecting others" The numbers this week should indicate whether they have and whether the tracing has been effective as if it is those testing positive had have already had to self isolate.

Testing as you rightly said is important is this. The genomics sequencing appears not to be as the important thing is to stop transmission. As you say it is important that close contacts are identified, they self isolate and are tested. As soon as they test positive there close contacts are required to self isolate and tested. I presume that is happening from the numbers of tests. That is an assumption but I presume very few are travelling at present outside hospital cases as there are 210 tests shown as being due. Ashford said these included scheduled day 7 & 13 tests and if that remains the case this number would be increasing substantially if many were travelling.

I can understand that Genomics can give reassurance that your tracing is accurate but as from all the recent posts posting appear to indicate it can only link you to which of the clusters it may be from if there are more than one with different sequences and not to whom you caught it off I still do not see that at this point that it is extremely vital that it is done in the IoM as a matter of urgency to stop the current outbreak. Nice to have yes, crucial no. The crucial aspect is the speed of the test and tracing and people self isolating. The Genomics argument at this point is a distraction 

 

  

 

[Happier diner]

Just now, Lost Login said:

As I understand it most cases show up with 5 to 10 days with very few after after day 14. We are now into, I think day 11, of the lockdown, so the chances of new cases not linked to known cases is diminishing everyday. We have had only something like 30 cases which are not day 1, 7 or 13 cases and a good percentage of those are family members  or people who were self isolating as they were a close contact case and therefore only infectious after they started self isolating. Of the four cases you refer to for part of the period they were infectious the current restrictions were in place and any high risk contacts of these people would have been traced and required to self isolate. We might have a few cases from these the next week or so hopefully those people are already in self isolation. Only time will tell but presently it appears that a pretty good job has been to date in tracking contacts and stopping transmission. Certainly there appears to be no increase in numbers so there at present appears to be no indication "any of those could have been infecting loads of other people and those in turn infecting others" The numbers this week should indicate whether they have and whether the tracing has been effective as if it is those testing positive had have already had to self isolate.

Testing as you rightly said is important is this. The genomics sequencing appears not to be as the important thing is to stop transmission. As you say it is important that close contacts are identified, they self isolate and are tested. As soon as they test positive there close contacts are required to self isolate and tested. I presume that is happening from the numbers of tests. That is an assumption but I presume very few are travelling at present outside hospital cases as there are 210 tests shown as being due. Ashford said these included scheduled day 7 & 13 tests and if that remains the case this number would be increasing substantially if many were travelling.

I can understand that Genomics can give reassurance that your tracing is accurate but as from all the recent posts posting appear to indicate it can only link you to which of the clusters it may be from if there are more than one with different sequences and not to whom you caught it off I still do not see that at this point that it is extremely vital that it is done in the IoM as a matter of urgency to stop the current outbreak. Nice to have yes, crucial no. The crucial aspect is the speed of the test and tracing and people self isolating. The Genomics argument at this point is a distraction 

 

  

 

I agree with you. The genomics is of interest but not vital to the cause for a small island community. 

[Banker]

Hopefully if no new community cases today then Comin will announce some easing of restrictions for end of week, schools open or shops 

[WTF]

7 hours ago, 2bees said:

Doctor Glover has offered to help for free - wtff are they waiting for? Grrrrrr 

a way to make it look like their idea so they can claim credit for it.

[Derek Flint]

5 minutes ago, Banker said:

Hopefully if no new community cases today then Comin will announce some easing of restrictions for end of week, schools open or shops 

I’d predict that there will need to be 2 weeks with no new detected cases and then a further week, before you see any changes. 

[Happier diner]

7 hours ago, 2bees said:

Doctor Glover has offered to help for free - wtff are they waiting for? Grrrrrr 

What's is she offering to do to help?

[Banker]

11 minutes ago, Derek Flint said:

I’d predict that there will need to be 2 weeks with no new detected cases and then a further week, before you see any changes. 

Henny said she’s happy with 14 days and Howie said they would consider restrictions on Monday in light of weekend cases

[Lost Login]

8 hours ago, Gladys said:

Firstly, she is Dr Glover, as in PhD.

Secondly, I am not sure many of us are confusing the two.   Simply, testing is "do you have it" and genome testing is "what do you have". 

What we are saying is she is an microbiologist with expertise in really little things and finding them.  We do not have anyone else with that expertise.  What we are fighting at the moment is a really little thing, and even smaller bits of it. 

If you have read any of her tweets, she found the very machine needed to set up the lab for testing, unused, under a cover and had another bit of kit needed.  She trained other staff and from all accounts, even our beloved leaders before the spat, had set up a world beating facility so we could "test,test, test"  We did not have a basic covid testing facility.

Yet we stopped testing, contrary to her very learned opinion.  Cynics may say it was because we didn't want any positives. Others may think that testing regardless of required isolation is a good idea because you would have a better understanding of where it is and how it was behaving.  Testing, regardless of isolation, would have revealed the 1886 case, probably, and would have indicated that the then requirement of only returnees isolating in a household was not right. Surveillance being a very useful tool in any war.

Lastly, it would also help in understanding if there were any changes in the virus, such as incubation period and infectiousness, such as we have with the new variant. 

The genome sequencing is a development from the testing that would seem to be a very useful source of information in the fight.  We could quickly identify if we had a variant found elsewhere which would indicate a different approach.  We no longer have that and have to send away for sequencing, with at least a two week turn around. 

Having those capabilities will greatly assist in future, allowing greater freedom and a sophisticated approach to borders.  That is all. 

Mrs Glover did a great job in setting up the testing facility in the IoM for which we should all be extremely grateful. I would not argue that the IoM should have done more testing and had stricter isolation and testing rules and that the rules for those coming over as key workers etc were not strict enough. We seem to have had an influx of people around Christmas time who you would wonder under which of the criteria they qualified. I think one of the current MHK's had several pictures of their parents visiting them over Christmas on their facebook page.

I would not disagree with you about the advantages of genomic testing but we have such a small sample size we are not going to pick up any variations over here. The UK will do that far before we will. Yes it would be good to know if the strain we have includes the one that is more infectious or has a longer incubation period, but if the IoM Govt planning and acting on the case that all cases are the "worst" strain knowing for definite is nice but changes nothing in terms of what we are doing over here.

If we had rapid results from Genomics sequencing then great but my one fear would be that it showed we did not have the new more infectious variant in the IoM. That I appreciate is probably unlikely. If the public were aware of that would they become complacent and stop worrying about ensuring the social distance, isolate, wear face masks etc. Best in my view to presume all cases are the most infectious variant and act accordingly 

[dreamon]

4 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

What's is she offering to do to help?

Dr Glover tweeted ...

'Just watched the briefing. No genome results yet after 2 weeks. If

@iomgov

@hettyetty

get in touch I will sequence all the positive cases to date since NYE for free and link/cluster the transmission chains of those cases FOR FREE within 48 hours. All they have to do is ask.

 

7:10 pm · 15 Jan 2021'

 

 

 

[Lost Login]

1 minute ago, Banker said:

Henny said she’s happy with 14 days and Howie said they would consider restrictions on Monday in light of weekend cases

I could see them announcing what they intend to do in the future if there are no new cases that are not people already in self isolation but I would expect and hope that they are not introduced for a week or so. Another few days to be certain is better than risking returning to the current lockdown   

[manxst]

8 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

What's is she offering to do to help?