IOM Covid removing restrictions

[dreamon]

Just now, dreamon said:

Dr Glover tweeted ...

'Just watched the briefing. No genome results yet after 2 weeks. If

@iomgov

@hettyetty

get in touch I will sequence all the positive cases to date since NYE for free and link/cluster the transmission chains of those cases FOR FREE within 48 hours. All they have to do is ask.

 

7:10 pm · 15 Jan 2021'

 

 

 

Time for HQ & associates to accept the advice we clearly need.

[Lost Login]

5 minutes ago, dreamon said:

Dr Glover tweeted ...

'Just watched the briefing. No genome results yet after 2 weeks. If

@iomgov

@hettyetty

get in touch I will sequence all the positive cases to date since NYE for free and link/cluster the transmission chains of those cases FOR FREE within 48 hours. All they have to do is ask.

 

7:10 pm · 15 Jan 2021'

 

 

 

Genuine offer or self publicity.?

Taken at face value it is a great offer although the issue seems to have been elevated so that it appears rapid genome sequences is of vital importance when that does not appear to be the case. 

A cynic might question whether after this length of time and stuff being sent across the stuff is still available to be tested. If not then it is a bit of a hollow offer. I have no idea.

I would like to see a bit of a compromise. In future, if we can, the stuff is split in two and genome sequenced both in the UK and IoM. The IoM has the rapid results and they still go into the UK set. Presumably Mrs Glover offer of doing for free would stand as we appears to have only a relatively small number of cases. 

 

 

[Happier diner]

11 minutes ago, dreamon said:

Time for HQ & associates to accept the advice we clearly need.

But we have no cases now so why? Just a genuine question. What Gov did seems to have worked ok so far doesnt it, or have i got something wrong?

[2bees]

34 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

What's is she offering to do to help?

“Sequencing the virus from each case would allow the cases to be connected, even if there is no obvious link on contact tracing. It would also be able to tell us whether we have any of the more transmissable variants in those cases as a bonus. Doing it on-Island is much quicker.”

 

“There are still “unknown” cases cropping up so it would absolutely make a difference. The identified links between patients could lead to more risk locations being identified or changes in policy if required.” 

copied from Twitter 

 

sorry - just noticed manxst’s post - what he/she said

Edited January 17, 2021 by 2bees

[Derek Flint]

31 minutes ago, Banker said:

Henny said she’s happy with 14 days and Howie said they would consider restrictions on Monday in light of weekend cases

Fair enough then. Sounds rather pragmatic against the overall belts and braces approach 

[John Wright]

19 minutes ago, Lost Login said:

Genuine offer or self publicity.?

Taken at face value it is a great offer although the issue seems to have been elevated so that it appears rapid genome sequences is of vital importance when that does not appear to be the case. 

A cynic might question whether after this length of time and stuff being sent across the stuff is still available to be tested. If not then it is a bit of a hollow offer. I have no idea.

I would like to see a bit of a compromise. In future, if we can, the stuff is split in two and genome sequenced both in the UK and IoM. The IoM has the rapid results and they still go into the UK set. Presumably Mrs Glover offer of doing for free would stand as we appears to have only a relatively small number of cases. 

 

 

The problem is that there are two imperatives here, and they’ve slightly different reasonings behind them. They’re both valid, but slightly more difficult to reconcile.

There’s the scientific curiosity and research imperative. Worthy. May provide answers short, medium and long term.

Then there’s  the public health imperative to eliminate, eradicate, limit or control.

Given our population size, and the fact we’ve had fewer than 70  cases since June, when lock down 1 ended, and that most of those came in, exclusively, at least until Christmas,  as returning patients, residents or key workers, and didn’t onwardly transmit, and that even since Xmas most transmission has been in the home/family ( the UK figure is 70% ), I wonder what use a very small sample size of genomics tests will be.

Im still of the view that testing at arrival, mid isolation, and end of isolation will eliminate locally. We knew there was a slight risk in not testing. It looks like the lock down will bring this under control quickly. Obviously we won’t go back to no testing. But genome testing won’t allow us to go any quicker. PCR testing may allow us to reduce the quarantine period to 1, 5 and 9 day testing with isolation ending on day 10, if no one tests positive for the first time on day 13.

 

[manxst]

17 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

But we have no cases now so why? Just a genuine question. What Gov did seems to have worked ok so far doesnt it, or have i got something wrong?

The government website stating we currently have (up to yesterday PM) 40 active cases, 210 awaiting tests, and 2 in hospital somewhat suggests that yes, we DO have cases...? The government have gone against what appears to be the best medical advice in Dr Glover (when she was employed by them and asking for more/further testing). Taking that advice would have assisted greatly in preventing these current 40 cases and this present lockdown. 

[John Wright]

17 minutes ago, Roxanne said:

If Dr Glover had remained on board, there's an extremely high chance that we wouldn't now be in lockdown.

Does that help?

The breakdown in relationships between Ms Glover and Government primarily happened when 7 day testing was removed by Government without consulting her. ( I’m sure there were other reasons, she’s told us about them, but that was what crystallised it ). 

Im not sure that 7 day testing would necessarily have picked up some of the transmissions within co-travelling co-isolating households. And I don’t recall anyone asking/recommending day 1 and 13 or 1, 6/7 and 13 day testing in October.

[horatiotheturd]

19 minutes ago, Roxanne said:

If Dr Glover had remained on board, there's an extremely high chance that we wouldn't now be in lockdown.

Does that help?

To be fair the lockdown is nothing to do with if Dr Glover was on board or not.

Lots, and lots of people were crying out for better testing for people travelling over.

You didn't need any expertise to see it was sensible just a following of world news and access to the Internet.

[John Wright]

3 minutes ago, horatiotheturd said:

To be fair the lockdown is nothing to do with if Dr Glover was on board or not.

Lots, and lots of people were crying out for better testing for people travelling over.

You didn't need any expertise to see it was sensible just a following of world news and access to the Internet.

Most of that testing was, and still is, test 72 hours before travel/arrival. A route we didn’t go down. Boy David said it only catches 7%. That’s a discredited figure.  It may catch up to 50% if you shed and are detectable 7 out of 14 days. But then you’ve up to 3 days in which to get infected.

So, it may stop between 1/3 and one half of positives reaching here. But there are inherent issues with patient transfers having to be tested and hang around in UK.

[horatiotheturd]

1 minute ago, John Wright said:

Most of that testing was, and still is, test 72 hours before travel/arrival. A route we didn’t go down. Boy David said it only catches 7%. That’s a discredited figure.  It may catch up to 50% if you shed and are detectable 7 out of 14 days. But then you’ve up to 3 days in which to get infected.

So, it may stop between 1/3 and one half of positives reaching here. But there are inherent issues with patient transfers having to be tested and hang around in UK.

Yes I know. There was lots of chatter about regular testing of people in isolation as a means to relaxing the border restrictions a bit back in the summer.  Certainky from the "experts" in the pubs I visit.

It was never really rocket science that a test pre departure, a test on arrival, a test mid isolation, and a test before coming out of isolation was pretty bullet proof and most people were more than happy to pay (medical transfers clearly shouldn't have to pay)

[manxst]

27 minutes ago, John Wright said:

The breakdown in relationships between Ms Glover and Government primarily happened when 7 day testing was removed by Government without consulting her. ( I’m sure there were other reasons, she’s told us about them, but that was what crystallised it ). 

Im not sure that 7 day testing would necessarily have picked up some of the transmissions within co-travelling co-isolating households. And I don’t recall anyone asking/recommending day 1 and 13 or 1, 6/7 and 13 day testing in October.

Dr Glover has been recommending various testing as you state, from at least Oct (I didn’t bother checking before that).

[Lost Login]

8 minutes ago, Roxanne said:

Please stop disrespecting her by calling her Mrs.  She is not married.  Her title is Dr Glover.

Self publicity?  Let me explain.  There are still people out there, good people, people who care about the Isle of Man, and it's residents and are prepared to put themselves out there to help with no thoughts of reward. Altruistic people do still exist you know? Just because we are used to the cut-throat, scheming politics demonstrated by government it is easy to believe that everyone else is out to get something for nothing.  This is not the case here.

Dr Glover is trying to save us from further incompetent action that could result in further lockdown, further restrictions, and an escalation of infection and death.

You suggesting it's self publicity says more about you than it could ever say about her.

 

Sorry I will refer to Ms Glover in future. I appreciate she is qualified but I do have an aversion to referring to individuals by their qualification or occupation in general conversation.  We don't a general rule refer to John Wright as advocate John Wright or refer to people's qualifications in their names so I always wonder why we do as for a certain qualification or profession. You have retired armed forces personnel who still want to be called by their rank when enlisted. That is just an aside.

With regard to "Dr Glover is trying to save us from further incompetent action that could result in further lockdown, further restrictions, and an escalation of infection and death" in my view that is just appears to be irrational hype.  In the, hopefully, rather sensible discussion over the last 24 hrs it seems that whilst genome testing might provide interesting information it will do little speed up the elimination and eradication of the current outbreak. John Wright I think put it well. Testing, tracing and isolation are what are important to stop the current outbreak.

Tweeting, as Ms Glover did, makes it appear that the failure to have rapid genome results is vital in stopping the current outbreak, preventing further lockdowns etc. It is not in my view. Those are based on having good testing for Covid 19, good tracing and good self isolation procedures. None of them relate to genome sequences. Maybe not deliberately but Ms Glover's tweets give the impression that the not having rapid genome testing on the IoM is a major failure in bringing the current outbreak under control. Additionally it seems some think that the genome sequencing is the same as testing for Covid 19 and think there is a delay in getting testing results. My in laws did. Whatever her issues with IoM Govt appearing to try and undermine the message from IoM Govt and their health advisors at present does look to me as though she is prioritising her own interest.

I started posting again yesterday as I was genuinely interested as to why it appeared that some the failure to do rapid genome testing on the IoM would prolong the current outbreak. I could not see it and I still cannot see it. Test, trace and isolate is what will get us back to normal. Genome sequencing whilst interesting and, I am sure, important in a future review will make little any difference whether we have same day results, after 7 or 14 days or never. 

 

 

   

[AcousticallyChallenged]

1 hour ago, Lost Login said:

Mrs Glover did a great job in setting up the testing facility in the IoM for which we should all be extremely grateful. I would not argue that the IoM should have done more testing and had stricter isolation and testing rules and that the rules for those coming over as key workers etc were not strict enough. We seem to have had an influx of people around Christmas time who you would wonder under which of the criteria they qualified. I think one of the current MHK's had several pictures of their parents visiting them over Christmas on their facebook page.

I would not disagree with you about the advantages of genomic testing but we have such a small sample size we are not going to pick up any variations over here. The UK will do that far before we will. Yes it would be good to know if the strain we have includes the one that is more infectious or has a longer incubation period, but if the IoM Govt planning and acting on the case that all cases are the "worst" strain knowing for definite is nice but changes nothing in terms of what we are doing over here.

If we had rapid results from Genomics sequencing then great but my one fear would be that it showed we did not have the new more infectious variant in the IoM. That I appreciate is probably unlikely. If the public were aware of that would they become complacent and stop worrying about ensuring the social distance, isolate, wear face masks etc. Best in my view to presume all cases are the most infectious variant and act accordingly 

First off, Dr Glover. She has a PhD and is a well-cited author, and has every right to be recognised for it. They aren't easy. If that was a deliberate slip, it's dismissive at best.

The real problem is they simply were not acting as though it could be the new strain. They were using the same criteria they were using in March 2020. A lot of things have changed since then, but it's much easier to go with what you already have written on your sheet of paper. Why rock the boat?

We are far more concerned with who is passing it onto who. That is the value of the genomic testing at present. That's what Dr Glover is offering on island, and something we would be daft to be missing out upon. The likelihood of it being the most prevalent strain in the UK is reasonably high. Either way, I doubt it'd breed complacency.

It would not be difficult for a virus to pass around asymptomatic groups for a few weeks of lockdown undetected, if the circumstances were right for it. However, with the genomics and contact tracing, we may identify any reservoirs in the community before that happens. Equally, it would serve as a reassurance that things were safe to open.

If we had the genomics from 31st Jan, we may well have avoided this lockdown altogether. Unfortunately, if you're flying blind, you can't assume anything, so default to assuming the worst.

The travesty is that we're flying blind by political choice.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

6 minutes ago, Lost Login said:

Tweeting, as Ms Glover did, makes it appear that the failure to have rapid genome results is vital in stopping the current outbreak, preventing further lockdowns etc. It is not in my view.  

Well, understandably, one would be inclined to believe the microbiologist's opinion.