IOM Covid removing restrictions

[AcousticallyChallenged]

22 minutes ago, John Wright said:

I’m sure she’ll correct us, but I think you need more than two cases/samples

You have all of the UK's here: https://www.cogconsortium.uk/data/

I would suspect that that would give you a baseline, and you can probably find the closest matching samples, then study the divergence from there.

Either way, community spread isn't two identified cases. It's transmission in a wider context.

[John Wright]

4 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

You have all of the UK's here: https://www.cogconsortium.uk/data/

I would suspect that that would give you a baseline, and you can probably find the closest matching samples, then study the divergence from there.

Either way, community spread isn't two identified cases. It's transmission in a wider context.

But in the example I was answering it was person 1 and person 2. You can’t tell direction of transmission between the two. If you got more cases later then, yes, but that’s days down the line. Historic importance in Manx terms.

[Gladys]

As knowledge worldwide increases, wouldn't genomics help?  Say, for instance, there is a strain which has proven to be more or less devastating.  If the former, quick identification can enhance tracing and allow the hospital to get ready. If the latter, then perhaps the response can be a little more low key. 

Like I have said, knowledge quickly obtained has to be key in a nuanced and sophisticated approach.  But I am sure there will be plenty of arguments against. 

[Banker]

24 minutes ago, Nomadic Raptor said:

So did they move the goal posts today from 21 days to 28 days....that is going to mess up all sorts of people especially mentally 

No , Henny said that really you need 28 days clear of any community cases to be entirely sure which was different than the 14 days mentioned last week.

they are considering allowing outdoor meetings, outdoor working commencing Thursday if no new community cases. Discussing schools return but looks like some from of social distance, face masks for a few weeks yet

[Happier diner]

55 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

Where are you getting your 48 hour figure?

Also, the virus has an incubation of up to 14 days. When you're incubating, you don't shed virus and test negative. You test positive when you start being infectious. That's the one advantage we have over it. If someone tests negative, the odds are high they've not started shedding yet, if they are infected.

Maybe I dreamt it but I remember reading that you had to to do pcr test to isolate a sample which then you can take on for sequencing. Each stage being 24hrs. Perhaps you can run in parallel

I am happy to stand corrected on this

However given that it can take 3 to 5 days to develop symptoms, then ring 111. Then go for test next day, then day after get positive result. Then a day to track and trace, then test close contacts etc. You know what I am saying.

[horatiotheturd]

1 hour ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

Okay, so we'll put it in super simple terms, with  letters to try and explain things a little bit more.

So, person A is infected with the virus, they've become symptomatic and gets a test.

A is friends with B and C, who as part of contact tracing are identified and put into isolation.

But, at the same time, we have person N who days/weeks later tests positive. N hasn't travelled anywhere, or been in contact with A B or C.

Where did N catch it? We can look at N's sample, and either find that they caught it from A B or C directly, or that someone else is involved. If A B or C passed it on to D, but they forgot they went shook hands and had a natter in the pub, then D could be going around on their merry way not realising they have the virus.

D might pass it onto E onto F etc. But, if N has shows the virus up, and then with testing, you flag up that they are friends with F, you might well be able to follow it back. This helps you find where it's going around F's close contacts, E's close contacts etc. By identifying these close contacts, we can outpace the virus whilst it incubates. 48 hours is a myth, PCR tests are turned around same day here quite often.

You might equally find that N actually caught it from A B or C. Contact tracing can then identify where that happened, and if there's any other likely cases that it was passed on. Again, you can get ahead of the virus with the extra information.

Thats never going to work like that in real life in a million years 

Nice idea but not a hope in hell

[dilligaf]

23 minutes ago, Gladys said:

As knowledge worldwide increases, wouldn't genomics help?  Say, for instance, there is a strain which has proven to be more or less devastating.  If the former, quick identification can enhance tracing and allow the hospital to get ready. If the latter, then perhaps the response can be a little more low key. 

Like I have said, knowledge quickly obtained has to be key in a nuanced and sophisticated approach.  But I am sure there will be plenty of arguments against. 

Probably help more if people just stayed at home for two weeks. Just saying.

[Happier diner]

23 minutes ago, Gladys said:

As knowledge worldwide increases, wouldn't genomics help?  Say, for instance, there is a strain which has proven to be more or less devastating.  If the former, quick identification can enhance tracing and allow the hospital to get ready. If the latter, then perhaps the response can be a little more low key. 

Like I have said, knowledge quickly obtained has to be key in a nuanced and sophisticated approach.  But I am sure there will be plenty of arguments against. 

If that were the case I would change my view and support the benefit of genomic sequencing. My view is based only where we are, here and now.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

2 minutes ago, horatiotheturd said:

Thats never going to work like that in real life in a million years 

Nice idea but not a hope in hell

Why not?

We have small clusters, a small community and a sizable contact tracing team. And little Doris at the end of the road who writes down the numbers of cars she doesn't recognise, just in case.

[Out of the blue]

25 minutes ago, Banker said:

No , Henny said that really you need 28 days clear of any community cases to be entirely sure which was different than the 14 days mentioned last week.

they are considering allowing outdoor meetings, outdoor working commencing Thursday if no new community cases. Discussing schools return but looks like some from of social distance, face masks for a few weeks yet

It makes you wonder why they instigated a fixed 21 day lockdown in the first place if it was always going to be a moving target. 

[AcousticallyChallenged]

2 minutes ago, Out of the blue said:

It makes you wonder why they instigated a fixed 21 day lockdown in the first place if it was always going to be a moving target. 

Sounds less scary, and I think they were hoping for a best case scenario of no new community cases.

[horatiotheturd]

8 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

Why not?

We have small clusters, a small community and a sizable contact tracing team. And little Doris at the end of the road who writes down the numbers of cars she doesn't recognise, just in case.

Read back what you posted, and think about the actual practicalities and chances of that ever happening.

Say I tested positive and had passed it on to someone in tesco who was asymptomatic and then passed it on to someone at their work.

You wouldn't make that connection in a million years.  I am unlikely to even remember where I had been in a non lockdown week.

An app would help, but I don't see any risk going forward if the new isolation and testing rules are followed so its all irrelevant anyway.

I still maintain an app to track close contacts is infinitely more useful than genomics when it comes to quickly identifying and isolating clusters 

Edited January 18, 2021 by horatiotheturd

[dilligaf]

1 hour ago, dilligaf said:

Speaking of 2 questions.
Loved the spoof that Manx Radio do. Is it called IM1 or something? At the news briefing, CM say good afternoon Paul ( to PM) .Paul replies, “ good afternoon CM, how are you “

CM says, “ fine thanks and your second question ?. Love it. Some great anti gov jokes in there. All on pod casts.

https://www.manxradio.com/podcasts/im11/episode/im7/?autoplay=1

worth a listen, only 30 mins. 

Edited January 18, 2021 by dilligaf

[AcousticallyChallenged]

3 minutes ago, horatiotheturd said:

Read back what you posted, and think about the actual practicalities and chances of that ever happening.

Say I tested positive and had passed it on to someone in tesco who was asymptomatic and then passed it on to someone at their work.

You wouldn't make that connection in a million years.  I am unlikely to even remember where I had been in a non lockdown week.

An app would help, but I don't see any risk going forward if the new isolation and testing rules are followed so its all irrelevant anyway.

I still maintain an app to track close contacts is infinitely more useful than genomics when it comes to quickly identifying and isolating clusters 

I have never at any point said it was the only part of the approach.

A track and trace app in conjunction would really be a golden ticket to tracking and understanding spread.

There is no risk if everyone follows the rules, unfortunately, we know that doesn't always happen. Never mind any false positives etc.

Whilst the prevalence of the virus is so high in the UK, surely we should be using every avenue we have available?

[horatiotheturd]

11 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

I have never at any point said it was the only part of the approach.

A track and trace app in conjunction would really be a golden ticket to tracking and understanding spread.

There is no risk if everyone follows the rules, unfortunately, we know that doesn't always happen. Never mind any false positives etc.

Whilst the prevalence of the virus is so high in the UK, surely we should be using every avenue we have available?

Sorry will have to agree to disagree.

I can see the benefit of genomics elsewhere, but not here.  I don't think i am the only one.

Honestly it just feels like people jumping on the Dr Glover bandwagon and deciding its something we need because she said so.

Test people, isolate people, and trace close contacts.  That's the way to beat this in my humble opinion.

I have read the whole thread and haven't seen a single post that makes me think it would make any difference to us keeping the virus away or quickly closing down any cases that leak though.

I also still haven't seen a single post that explains the risk of a bit more freedom.at the borders assuming people follow the new rules, but i have admitted defeat on that one.

Edited January 18, 2021 by horatiotheturd