winnie Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 I think the virus must be getting weaker as the uk 7 day average for deaths is only 87 and 552 for new cases. Average death rate for the uk last year was 1,500 per day !! How low does it need to go before borders are opened with no isolation required? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ellanvannin2010 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 24 minutes ago, winnie said: I think the virus must be getting weaker as the uk 7 day average for deaths is only 87 and 552 for new cases. Average death rate for the uk last year was 1,500 per day !! How low does it need to go before borders are opened with no isolation required? To read some of the comments on here you would think you are being imprisoned in a gulag. Do you think the place is so bad you have to leave all the time?. I have gone from 30 odd trips away last year to none and have to say with the current worldwide situation I am in no rush to go abroad, not from fear of the virus, it is simply just not worth the hassle at the moment. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Onchan Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 I really need to get to UK and elsewhere to visit my businesses but I'm screwed because each time I return home I will have to isolate for 14 days..... and that's just not practical. If it was 7 days I could probably manage but I really need to be at my desk where all my resources are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ellanvannin2010 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said: I really need to get to UK and elsewhere to visit my businesses but I'm screwed because each time I return home I will have to isolate for 14 days..... and that's just not practical. If it was 7 days I could probably manage but I really need to be at my desk where all my resources are. Fair enough,and I do not think anyone could have realistically foreseen this, any business trips I have are really in the "nice to have category" so can wait, the other businesses I deal with have staff travel bans in place anyway. Leisure trips would just be a torment I think at the moment I am surprised that testing on arrival and at 7 days does not seem currently to be part of the plan here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 (edited) 19 minutes ago, ellanvannin2010 said: Fair enough,and I do not think anyone could have realistically foreseen this, any business trips I have are really in the "nice to have category" so can wait, the other businesses I deal with have staff travel bans in place anyway. Leisure trips would just be a torment I think at the moment I am surprised that testing on arrival and at 7 days does not seem currently to be part of the plan here. You seem to be implying they have a plan. I’m yet to see one other than a 5 Level flow chart which is as wishy washy as can be in regards to projected opening dates. Do they have a marker (Number) on the UK R rate which might be deemed acceptable to lift quarantine restrictions? Edited July 10, 2020 by Nom de plume Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dog's Dangly Bits Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Really, it should be a test as you return and isolate until you get the result. We are dealing with minimal risk. Of all the people who have entered the island in the last three or so months how many had Covid 19? And when? It appears that there is really very little of it about. The policies seem to be forced with almost an assumption everyone has it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 (edited) Did Minister Ashford ever release the antibody testing report that he’d promised on two consecutive press briefings? With all due respect to this Government, the easiest thing in the world to do was lock the Island down (99.9999% of us would have done exactly that, some even sooner than they did). The real scrutiny comes with a credible plan to open the Island back up so allowing business & the economy to recover. The longer this goes on, the more pain we will face down the line on a financial / social / health level. It’s not about a few families having a week in Majorca. I’m not even going to mention the delayed diagnosis or treatments to life threatening conditions that are being overlooked. Oh look, I just did. Edited July 10, 2020 by Nom de plume 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doc.fixit Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 I see that Liverpool has a rising number of cases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Onchan Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, doc.fixit said: I see that Liverpool has a rising number of cases. Is that the price they are paying for LFC winning the league? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 56 minutes ago, Nom de plume said: You seem to be implying they have a plan. I’m yet to see one other than a 5 Level flow chart which is as wishy washy as can be in regards to projected opening dates. Do they have a marker (Number) on the UK R rate which might be deemed acceptable to lift quarantine restrictions? UK's R number is not helpful - it's only an estimate in any case and shows how the infection is likely to grow/recede, rather than the current infective load. More useful, and what is being used, is the UK caseload. ONS yesterday published 1:3900 based on survey data. Daily cases and daily deaths also figure into an overall estimate of the proportion of the UK population currently infected. That can be converted, roughly, to the probability of importing a case here given expected numbers travelling. That probability will never be zero. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 20 minutes ago, wrighty said: UK's R number is not helpful - it's only an estimate in any case and shows how the infection is likely to grow/recede, rather than the current infective load. More useful, and what is being used, is the UK caseload. ONS yesterday published 1:3900 based on survey data. Daily cases and daily deaths also figure into an overall estimate of the proportion of the UK population currently infected. That can be converted, roughly, to the probability of importing a case here given expected numbers travelling. That probability will never be zero. Thank you, insightful. So, this begs the question - at what point (case load figure) is it deemed safe to drop the quarantine stipulations & allow unrestricted access into the Island. Can the Government not provide this information? They must have considered it several times over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, wrighty said: UK's R number is not helpful - it's only an estimate in any case and shows how the infection is likely to grow/recede, rather than the current infective load. More useful, and what is being used, is the UK caseload. ONS yesterday published 1:3900 based on survey data. Daily cases and daily deaths also figure into an overall estimate of the proportion of the UK population currently infected. That can be converted, roughly, to the probability of importing a case here given expected numbers travelling. That probability will never be zero. I'd add that even estimates of prevalence in the general UK population may underestimate the problem because the rate of infection among travellers could be a lot higher. This is partly because travelling itself is a high risk activity because of the confined spaces with a large number of people and because of the high number of human contacts. But also the sort of people who are travelling will be high risk because their jobs and/or their lifestyle will mean that they have a lot of contacts during their daily lives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 More surveys https://www.gov.im/news/2020/jul/10/surveys-to-gauge-economic-impact-of-coronavirus-pandemic/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Roger Mexico said: I'd add that even estimates of prevalence in the general UK population may underestimate the problem because the rate of infection among travellers could be a lot higher. This is partly because travelling itself is a high risk activity because of the confined spaces with a large number of people and because of the high number of human contacts. But also the sort of people who are travelling will be high risk because their jobs and/or their lifestyle will mean that they have a lot of contacts during their daily lives. This is correct - unmitigated, the local R number on a packed plane or boat will be higher than in the wild - but risks can be minimised by mandating mask usage, stricter seating arrangements, accurate recording of seating plans to allow contact tracing etc. It's a very difficult process to get right, which is probably why government aren't just saying 'when the number of cases in the UK is x, we'll move to level y'. It has to be more nuanced than that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Newbie Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 2 hours ago, doc.fixit said: I see that Liverpool has a rising number of cases. They’ve probably nicked all the Covid from the rest of the North West. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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