Happier diner Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said: This has been explained to you about 20 times so far (and I don't think this is an exaggeration) but lets look at the current Guernsey outbreak, where they announced immediate lockdown at noon: This decision follows confirmation of four new positive cases of COVID-19 where it is not immediately clear how they contracted the virus, as none are directly from travel or the contacts of known cases or travellers. Contract tracing is continuing to determine whether there is a link between the cases and whether these cases are linked or this is as a result of wider community seeding. If you can establish through genomics whether these four cases are linked. If they are, it immediately lessens the worry and you can look at establishing the links through other methods and detailed tracing[1]. If contacts test positive their genomics can help feed back into the system. [1] If they are all absolutely identical you can check to see if the whole thing is caused by contamination. I understand that bit, but I cant see how you can do that without immediate results. I keep saying the same thing I know, but it's because no one has ever answered the key bit. It takes 36 hrs AFTER the positive PCR result. That could be 7 days after the actual infection was transferred. The trail is cold....gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
horatiotheturd Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, AcousticallyChallenged said: That's really the crux of it. We can either be open as usual, but with masks, social distancing etc. Or we continue to pursue local elimination, but we have to rely on heavy border controls. I don't think the vaccine will be the end of the disruption. Positive cases will still be doing their 2 weeks penance. Close contacts will probably be doing the same. That'll turn public opinion against importing cases too. The impact of individuals and their contacts isolating will still have knock-on effects for businesses too. The likelihood of being able to mix virus in circulation and back to normal? Very slim. How would there be any close contacts? You don't come out of isolation or meet anyone who didn't travel with you until 3 clear tests for everyone in the household Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happier diner Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, horatiotheturd said: How would there be any close contacts? You don't come out of isolation or meet anyone who didn't travel with you until 3 clear tests for everyone in the household I fear we are wasting our breath.....or skin.....no one gets it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcousticallyChallenged Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 31 minutes ago, Happier diner said: Ok. I'll rephrase it. What extra information would have prevented the lockdown and what timescale would have been required to achieve it. I don't mean to be negative and I have no axe to grind with anyone, I just genuinely cannot see how it could have been avoided whether it takes a week(or more) to get results from liverpool or 36hrs from an on island lab. Guernsey have taken the approach of 'limit the worst case scenario, then identify the cause'. By locking down hard, fast and early, you stem the flow of people, and thus infected people. You perform the testing, genomics and contact tracing in parallel as much as possible. Within a short space of time, you have that information in hand. You've identified the scope of measures that need to take place. Best case? You're out of lockdown as soon as you have that info. Worst case, you've already reduced the risk and potential growth by a significant factor. It has been denied the opportunity to spread further. Our lockdown was implemented when it was clear there were a significant risk of 'community seeding' as it was put by Dr Ewart. In other words, we didn't then know if the horse had bolted, but it might've. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said: That's really the crux of it. We can either be open as usual, but with masks, social distancing etc. Or we continue to pursue local elimination, but we have to rely on heavy border controls. I don't think the vaccine will be the end of the disruption. Positive cases will still be doing their 2 weeks penance. Close contacts will probably be doing the same. That'll turn public opinion against importing cases too. The impact of individuals and their contacts isolating will still have knock-on effects for businesses too. The likelihood of being able to mix virus in circulation and back to normal? Very slim. Well everywhere will have to open up eventually and allow travel etc or there’ll be nothing left to open and all the economies will be ruined. Eventually everyone is going to have to pay for all the lockdown costs via increased taxes, lower pensions etc and then the gap between those at top & bottom will widen more with social unrest . Of course the wealthy pensioners calling for restrictions will be all ok still 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 My 9 year old understands it better than some of the folk on here. And he's an idiot. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happier diner Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, AcousticallyChallenged said: Guernsey have taken the approach of 'limit the worst case scenario, then identify the cause'. By locking down hard, fast and early, you stem the flow of people, and thus infected people. You perform the testing, genomics and contact tracing in parallel as much as possible. Within a short space of time, you have that information in hand. You've identified the scope of measures that need to take place. Best case? You're out of lockdown as soon as you have that info. Worst case, you've already reduced the risk and potential growth by a significant factor. It has been denied the opportunity to spread further. Our lockdown was implemented when it was clear there were a significant risk of 'community seeding' as it was put by Dr Ewart. In other words, we didn't then know if the horse had bolted, but it might've. Correct. And also i trust the view and judgement of an experienced professional, who has a doctorate in her profession, and has the ultimate responsibility for her actions, more than us amateurs on here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, TheTeapot said: My 9 year old understands it better than some of the folk on here. And he's an idiot. Understands what? The meaning of life? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happier diner Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, TheTeapot said: My 9 year old understands it better than some of the folk on here. And he's an idiot. See above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, TheTeapot said: My 9 year old understands it better than some of the folk on here. And he's an idiot. that's genetics for you. 2 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
horatiotheturd Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, TheTeapot said: My 9 year old understands it better than some of the folk on here. And he's an idiot. Where does he get that from? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happier diner Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Banker said: Well everywhere will have to open up eventually and allow travel etc or there’ll be nothing left to open and all the economies will be ruined. Eventually everyone is going to have to pay for all the lockdown costs via increased taxes, lower pensions etc and then the gap between those at top & bottom will widen more with social unrest . Of course the wealthy pensioners calling for restrictions will be all ok still Unfortunately, this is true as well. Hopefully, if we are back to normal on 1st Feb the damage will be limited to some extent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcousticallyChallenged Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, horatiotheturd said: How would there be any close contacts? You don't come out of isolation or meet anyone who didn't travel with you until 3 clear tests for everyone in the household This was more of a hypothetical, not about our current position, but in a world of level one or two border restrictions. If the virus is here to stay, then, we will likely not be able to maintain our current position indefinitely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
horatiotheturd Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Happier diner said: Correct. And also i trust the view and judgement of an experienced professional, who has a doctorate in her profession, and has the ultimate responsibility for her actions, more than us amateurs on here. Lots of professionals disagree as well. Same as every aspect of this pandemic. Ashford even said himself on Thursday that the advice from on island experts re the vaccine rollout is split. All we have here is one particular person who has made a name for herself on twitfer Edited January 23, 2021 by horatiotheturd 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Out of the blue Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 45 minutes ago, wrighty said: The problem with the “shield the vulnerable, let everyone else crack on” approach (and I have some sympathy with that view) is that how do you do it? Can I “crack on” and then operate on 80 year olds who break things? Can the young carers in nursing homes “crack on”? There’s no way of partitioning society into two distinct sets. This approach may be possible once the older folk are all vaccinated, but until then I see no other solution. So here, at least, local elimination has to be the way forwards until vaccination levels are satisfactory. Exactly, I was and still am, a proponent of protecting the old and vulnerable and letting everyone else get on with life. Before the vaccines became a realistic possibility I would have argued that the many billions directed towards furlough etc could have been directed at finding logical solutions to the issues you sighted. However, now a vaccine is being rolled out, a short to medium term virus elimination policy makes a lot of sense. Once we are vaccinated and the UK have got a grip of their issues we can then gradually ease our borders and get on with life. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.