IOM Covid removing restrictions

[horatiotheturd]

4 minutes ago, Albert Tatlock said:

Go for it Horatio...don't be frightened by how many bricks you have to start with.

 

Same reply as to Alan.

Show me your maths

[Non-Believer]

All I can say is; the qualified scientists and epidemiologists advising our Government don't seem to think that we would end up with only 50 in hospital and 6 cases in ITU.

In fact, they would appear to be so unconvinced that our Govt has introduced various border restrictions in an attempt to reduce the likelihood of the virus getting in here and a lockdown to prevent the spread in the instances that it has.

Although their opinion may well be coloured by the mortal departure of 101,000 people beginning only 20-odd miles away.

[horatiotheturd]

2 minutes ago, Non-Believer said:

All I can say is; the qualified scientists and epidemiologists advising our Government don't seem to think that we would end up with only 50 in hospital and 6 cases in ITU.

In fact, they would appear to be so unconvinced that our Govt has introduced various border restrictions in an attempt to reduce the likelihood of the virus getting in here and a lockdown to prevent the spread in the instances that it has.

Although their opinion may well be coloured by the mortal departure of 101,000 people beginning only 20-odd miles away.

Ah cool.

A lot of assumptions based on the news and no evidence of any figures to actually translate the situations the UK to here and back-up Albert's theory that the ICU beds would be overwhelmed.

[Non-Believer]

Just now, horatiotheturd said:

Ah cool.

A lot of assumptions based on the news and no evidence of any figures to actually translate the situations the UK to here and back-up Albert's theory that the ICU beds would be overwhelmed.

The advice of qualified scientists and epidemiologists has led to the Govt stance being taken.

Clearly they aren't operating on your figures, calculations or assumptions for some reason. There must be a reason for that because otherwise everything would be a little more normal.

So what are all these people qualified in their field getting wrong?

[AcousticallyChallenged]

41 minutes ago, horatiotheturd said:

Rubbish

Last week in UK just under 40,000 in hospital, and just under 5,000 in ICU.

So by being generous and rounding up to those figures, then add a couple of million on to their population as well to be on the safe side.  Call it 68 million.  Work out the percentages.

Then apply to a population of 86,000.

50 in hospital and 6 in ICU.

Then account for the fact that those figures are "with" COVID and not "from" COVID

Have you adjusted that for age demographics of the Manx population? We’ve got a lot of oldsters.

Also, figures with COVID don’t count anyone who has died on day 29 because of it etc etc. The ONS does reports on actually, who has died FROM covid, and the numbers still aren’t pretty. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending15january2021

Have you accounted for normal winter pressures on Noble’s anyway? Along with our lack of failover to the UK that we’d typically have. 

If we have all 6 ICU beds full, what do we do when someone has an accident, heart attack or other serious illness? 

How do we resource between COVID and non COVID wards and staff? What happens with the staff treating those patients? Are they isolated from their families to reduce/prevent cross contamination? 

 

[horatiotheturd]

1 minute ago, Non-Believer said:

The advice of qualified scientists and epidemiologists has led to the Govt stance being taken.

Clearly they aren't operating on your figures, calculations or assumptions for some reason. There must be a reason for that because otherwise everything would be a little more normal.

So what are all these people qualified in their field getting wrong?

Irrelevant

Albert said we would be overwhelmed of same as UK.  I said we wouldn't and showed working out.

People laughed and mocked, but didn't manage to show otherwise.

If they do I will admit I was wrong.

[Non-Believer]

1 minute ago, horatiotheturd said:

Irrelevant

Albert said we would be overwhelmed of same as UK.  I said we wouldn't and showed working out.

People laughed and mocked, but didn't manage to show otherwise.

If they do I will admit I was wrong.

But that doesn't answer the question of what all the qualified people are getting wrong? How can they be so wildly out with the advice they are giving Govt. which is being accordingly acted upon?

[horatiotheturd]

2 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

Have you adjusted that for age demographics of the Manx population? We’ve got a lot of oldsters.

Also, figures with COVID don’t count anyone who has died on day 29 because of it etc etc. The ONS does reports on actually, who has died FROM covid, and the numbers still aren’t pretty. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending15january2021

Have you accounted for normal winter pressures on Noble’s anyway? Along with our lack of failover to the UK that we’d typically have. 

If we have all 6 ICU beds full, what do we do when someone has an accident, heart attack or other serious illness? 

How do we resource between COVID and non COVID wards and staff? What happens with the staff treating those patients? Are they isolated from their families to reduce/prevent cross contamination? 

 

No need to adjust for demographics of age as we are a tiny sample.and there are many other advantages to our demograohoc over the UK.

I haven't mentioned deaths, that's not what we are discussing.

In the event that we matched the UK for hospitalisations (we wont) we would use the extra beds they have assigned and cancel other admissions like they have in the UK.

Staff treating patients with COVID don't need to isolate from anyone.  They just go home same as in the UK and same as they did in the spring (my sister treated COVID patients)

[horatiotheturd]

1 minute ago, Non-Believer said:

But that doesn't answer the question of what all the qualified people are getting wrong? How can they be so wildly out with the advice they are giving Govt. which is being accordingly acted upon?

You go first.

You answer mine and I will answer yours

[Non-Believer]

1 minute ago, horatiotheturd said:

You go first.

You answer mine and I will answer yours

What's your question?

[horatiotheturd]

If someone can do acgual figures by this time tomorrow then as soon as I am able to work again I will send £50 towards the running of manxforums.com 

[horatiotheturd]

7 minutes ago, Non-Believer said:

What's your question?

Show me figures that show the ICU would be overrun bearing in mind the expansion options based on the same level of hospitalisations as the UK 

Edited January 28, 2021 by horatiotheturd

[AcousticallyChallenged]

5 minutes ago, horatiotheturd said:

If someone can do acgual figures by this time tomorrow then as soon as I am able to work again I will send £50 towards the running of manxforums.com 

The deaths are covered off about two posts later too when the data finally loaded. 
 

It was based on old figures but you could update quite easily based on what’s now happening. 

[Non-Believer]

Just now, horatiotheturd said:

Show me figures that show the ICU wojld be overrun bearing in mind the expansion options based on the same level of hospitalisations as the UK 

I can't because I'm not au fait with them. Nor am I a scientist or qualified epidemiologist so any figures I did put up would have no value anyway. I haven't proffered any argument based on figures  that's been done by other posters.

I just want to know why, in your opinion, the good and learned people advising Govt have given Govt advice that has caused the Govt to impose factual border restrictions and a factual lockdown when your figures would suggest that there's little or nothing to worry about and our facilities could cope easily. How could they get it so wrong and why?

[horatiotheturd]

3 minutes ago, Non-Believer said:

I can't because I'm not au fait with them. Nor am I a scientist or qualified epidemiologist so any figures I did put up would have no value anyway. I haven't proffered any argument based on figures  that's been done by other posters.

I just want to know why, in your opinion, the good and learned people advising Govt have given Govt advice that has caused the Govt to impose factual border restrictions and a factual lockdown when your figures would suggest that there's little or nothing to worry about and our facilities could cope easily. How could they get it so wrong and why?

Because they accidently eradicated the virus.

Then they became Facebook famous for being so cool and keeping us all safe.  We even had Howard o clock.and t shirts.

Then they were scared to do anything that might introduce a case as the social media crowd had been told that cases mean death for all.

Then they screwed up the obvious testing regime and accidently let a case in.

Now the borders police on social media are more out in force than ever.

Its very very simple.  Take the UK figures and translate them to our population.  Its not a big deal and it would never happen in a million years anyway.

For info I fully support short sharp lockdown if and when needed.