IOM Covid removing restrictions

[AcousticallyChallenged]

1 hour ago, horatiotheturd said:

If someone can do acgual figures by this time tomorrow then as soon as I am able to work again I will send £50 towards the running of manxforums.com 

So. For good measure, I’ve re-run the figures based on the attached figures from the UK rates per 100k population for the North West as our nearest neighbour. 
 

I’ve simply calculated based on the size of each group on the island, using the same population figures as my previous post. 
 

Based on the figures for all the hospital admissions in the UK so far, and their rates per 100k since the start of the pandemic, we’d have had the following number of beds used over the past however many months. 

85+: 146 beds

65-84: 302 beds

18-64: 185 beds

 

The caveat is there’s no hard prevalence you can link this to, and you can’t rely on people getting better for the next batch get admitted either. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by AcousticallyChallenged
Clarity

[Albert Tatlock]

1 hour ago, horatiotheturd said:

Show me your maths

Here is my logic:

UK 11th Nov 50,000 deaths.

IOM par equivalent: 66 deaths.

UK 26th January 100,000 deaths.

IOM par equivalent: 133 deaths

Assuming average hospitalisation prior to death is 21 days.

IOM equivalent change 11th Nov to 26th January 67 deaths (67 * 21 days = 1414 ICU days)

11th Nov to 26th January is 77 day period.

Assuming flat growth: 1414/77 means 18 in ICU any one time. But it was exponential, so number would actually build from 0 to 67 exponentially.

And above doesn't even include anyone in ICU that would have recovered.

Therefore overwhelmed, even with flat growth curve, let alone exponential growth - and not even taking into account hospitalised survivors.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

Updated figures, see later post.

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by AcousticallyChallenged

[horatiotheturd]

27 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

So, as quick and dirty maths based on what I’ve done so far...

For 62143 hospital admissions in the UK, the IOM equivalent, based on North West hospital admissions per 100k would be 633. This gives us a ratio of approximately 0.01%. 
 

So, if we take all the patients on mechanical ventilation in the UK as we speak, that figure is at 3961. So with that, we’d have approximately 39 patients on ventilators at this moment in time. We don’t have that many ventilators. 
 

 

As of 4:20pm today there are 37,605 patients in hospital with COVID in the UK.

Where does 62k come from, and why are you adjusting for North West?

[Newbie]

5 hours ago, horatiotheturd said:

Show me figures that show the ICU would be overrun bearing in mind the expansion options based on the same level of hospitalisations as the UK

In England, in February 2020 (before the pandemic), there were about 4,100 adult ICU beds serving a population of 56million. This works out at around 1 bed per 13,660 people

The Isle of Man has 6 adult ICU beds for a population of 85,000 or 1 bed per 14,170 people

In the same month, in ICUs in England, there was an average 80% bed occupancy (around 3,280 people) meaning that in England during that month they had an average of 820 empty ICU beds on any particular day. For the Isle of Man that would mean 1 or 2 empty ICU beds.

In January 2021, in England, ICU bed usage for COVID cases peaked at around 3,700 cases. The Isle of Man equivalent would be around 6 COVID cases requiring an ICU bed per day. In addition to the COVID cases, you still have to look after all of the Non COVID patients requiring ICU.

You cannot fit the extra 3,700 cases into 820 empty beds (or 6 people into 1 or 2 beds in the case of the Isle of Man). The NHS in England have managed that by increasing capacity where they can, (using paediatric ICU beds, HDU beds etc), and by cancelling operations where they know the patient is likely to need an ICU bed. However, the extra capacity means extra trained staff to look after the patients, and they are not always available. Cancelling operations reduces the Non COVID requirement for ICU a bit, but the bulk of those patients are still there needing care.

The same would have to happen in the Isle of Man if we were in the same position as the UK. We would be worse off because we have started with a slightly lower number of ICU beds per capita, and we don't have the option of transferring patients to other areas that might have capacity at any particular time.

This is what being overrun looks like. Repurposing beds, cancelling operations, staff having to look after unsafe numbers of patients, drafting in staff without specific training to help in ICU, using Paediatric ICUs for adults etc. That is why we see so many news reports of ICU doctors and nursing staff at breaking point. They are not making it up.

 

[Nom de plume]

Are we still pretending Nobles is going to be overwhelmed?

Jersey have 4 people in hospital.

The average age of those who died on their Island was 85 and above.

Vaccinate the over 50’s and crack on. Put an end to this madness once and for all.

[Newbie]

1 minute ago, Nom de plume said:

Are we still pretending Nobles is going to be overwhelmed?

Jersey have 4 people in hospital.

The average age of those who died on their Island was 85 and above.

Vaccinate the over 50’s and crack on. Put an end to this madness once and for all.

I think the question was would Nobles be overrun if we were seeing the same level of infection, hospital admission and ICU admission that the UK is seeing at the moment. The answer to that is probably yes. Fortunately we aren't.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

See updated post

Edited January 28, 2021 by AcousticallyChallenged
Updated post with figures

[wrighty]

@AcousticallyChallenged Please edit your post to correct the % errors - A ratio of 0.00129 is not the same as 0.001%.  I'm sure these are just fat-finger typos or equivalent, but you're getting some things out by a factor of 100.

[asitis]

Having just driven past a building site, and seen at first hand the impossibility of social distancing and the precautions everyone else is taking, I sincerely hope Government this time do use the phrase "Key" workers to mean just that. Not Irish window fitters or roofers to keep developers happy, or indeed welders or uncle tom cobbly and all !! This latest lockdown which most people think was as a result of failed policy, has cost what, 15 million or so money we can't afford, irrespective of the health implications. 

[WTF]

1 minute ago, wrighty said:

@AcousticallyChallenged Please edit your post to correct the % errors - A ratio of 0.00129 is not the same as 0.001%.  I'm sure these are just fat-finger typos or equivalent, but you're getting some things out by a factor of 100.

they're mathematically challenged too.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

Just now, WTF said:

they're mathematically challenged too.

It was done at 1 in the morning on mobile, I'll happily be wrong when half asleep. I'll re-run it all properly on Excel.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

Thanks Wrighty, I knew I'd be off at that time of night.

So, I've got clearer figures and I've got everything I'm using, so I'll lay it all out

So, first off, the crude figures. The Isle of Man is 0.1291% of the UK population.

That gives, based on current figures, and assuming everything else is the same:

48.56 people in hospital

5.1 people on ventilators

487.72 cumulative hospital cases since the start of the pandemic.

So, we know that our median age is higher here. We can make some adjustments to the figures, based on our demographics and get a projection. I'm using the North West admissions per 100k as a near neighbour, and as they've been hit hard, on the worse end of the scale for what it could look like.

According to the last census, we have:

We know that based on the North West, the admissions per 100k there are as follows:

This gives us:

So, if we add that to the population data for the Isle of Man, we get

 

Based on that, we could estimate that overall bed usage would be somewhere around the two figures, with a multiplier of up to 1.301, based on the NW's case figures and our population.

So, what does that look like for current bed occupancy now?

By taking that multiplier, we can just re-do the figures:

 

Caveat, I'm no statistician, and this is all just off the raw data. I'm sure the methods are probably flawed somewhere. But it's far easier on Excel than an iPhone calculator.

That multiplier figure isn't accurate either. It doesn't take into account the proportion of cases that are from the NW.

Edited January 28, 2021 by AcousticallyChallenged

[horatiotheturd]

6 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

Thanks Wrighty, I knew I'd be off at that time of night.

So, I've got clearer figures and I've got everything I'm using, so I'll lay it all out

So, first off, the crude figures. The Isle of Man is 0.1291% of the UK population.

That gives, based on current figures, and assuming everything else is the same:

48.56 people in hospital

5.1 people on ventilators

487.72 cumulative hospital cases since the start of the pandemic.

So, we know that our median age is higher here. We can make some adjustments to the figures, based on our demographics and get a projection. I'm using the North West admissions per 100k as a near neighbour, and as they've been hit hard, on the worse end of the scale for what it could look like.

According to the last census, we have:

We know that based on the North West, the admissions per 100k there are as follows:

This gives us:

So, if we add that to the population data for the Isle of Man, we get

 

Based on that, we could estimate that overall bed usage would be somewhere around the two figures, with a multiplier of up to 1.301, based on the NW's case figures and our population.

So, what does that look like for current bed occupancy now?

By taking that multiplier, we can just re-do the figures:

 

Caveat, I'm no statistician, and this is all just off the raw data. I'm sure the methods are probably flawed somewhere. But it's far easier on Excel than an iPhone calculator.

That multiplier figure isn't accurate either. It doesn't take into account the proportion of cases that are from the NW.

So basically what I said, but while you have adjusted for our higher age demogralhic you haven't allowed for any of the other differences in demographic that would work to our advantage. 

You have also inexplicably adjusted for the NW when we were talking about the UK, and still ended up with the same figures I did because I had deliberately been cautious knowing people wouldn't belive it and try and pick holes in it.

 

Thanks for proving the point i was making perfectly

[AcousticallyChallenged]

4 minutes ago, horatiotheturd said:

So basically what I said, but while you have adjusted for our higher age demogralhic you haven't allowed for any of the other differences in demographic that would work to our advantage. 

You have also inexplicably adjusted for the NW when we were talking about the UK, and still ended up with the same figures I did because I had deliberately been cautious knowing people wouldn't belive it and try and pick holes in it.

 

Thanks for proving the point i was making perfectly

Well, the figures per 100k are given for regions, not countries. The North West is the closest to us.

I've managed to find the figures for England, and that changes the 'multiplier' down to 1.035 on the crude vs age adjusted statistics.

It's still not great on that 6-bed ICU front. Unless the .2 can share with someone and free up one for a heart attack.