IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Declan]

14 minutes ago, horatiotheturd said:

So basically what I said, but while you have adjusted for our higher age demogralhic you haven't allowed for any of the other differences in demographic that would work to our advantage. 

You have also inexplicably adjusted for the NW when we were talking about the UK, and still ended up with the same figures I did because I had deliberately been cautious knowing people wouldn't belive it and try and pick holes in it.

 

Thanks for proving the point i was making perfectly

Sorry  if I'm misunderstanding your point, but was it challenging the assertion that if we had the same level of infection our ICU would be overwhelmed.

Because AC's figures seem to show that at the moment, there would be 6.8 Covid people in our 6 ICU beds. Isn't this a Macawberesque situation ICU capacity + 1 extra patient = overwhelmed. And an average occupancy of 6.8 would suggest there would be periods when there were more patients than beds. And that's before you consider another patients who may require ICU.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Declan

[AcousticallyChallenged]

2 minutes ago, Declan said:

Sorry  if I'm misunderstanding your point, but was it challenging the assertion that if we had the same level of infection our ICU would be overwhelmed.

Because AC's figures seem to show that at the moment, there would be 6.8 Covid people in our 6 ICU beds. Isn't this a Macawberesque situation ICU capicity + 1 extra patient = overwhelmed. And an average occupacy of 6.8 would suggest there would be period when there were more patients than beds. And that's before you consider anyother patients who may require ICU.

The figures are basing on it going as sideways as it is currently in England, and in theory, they can make 14 other ICU beds appear.

So @horatiotheturd is right, the ICU wouldn't be overwhelmed just from COVID. But COVID doesn't stop heart attacks etc. either. Ideally, you always want a bed to shove someone ill in.

[Barlow]

 

1 hour ago, asitis said:

Having just driven past a building site, and seen at first hand the impossibility of social distancing and the precautions everyone else is taking, I sincerely hope Government this time do use the phrase "Key" workers to mean just that. Not Irish window fitters or roofers to keep developers happy, or indeed welders or uncle tom cobbly and all !! This latest lockdown which most people think was as a result of failed policy, has cost what, 15 million or so money we can't afford, irrespective of the health implications. 

The problem would appear to be that we are in sight of freedom and people getting sloppy. Yes, yes, it is more than likely that everything will be ok and your mate on the building site doesn't have the virus. But no one knows for sure.

Or as the vast majority of people who have to isolate in UK feel..."well, 12 days is nearly 13, or whatever it was,. It's been over a week and I feel fine, so I'm off out."

Many a slip between cup and lip and all that.

We live in a world of I'm alright Jack, bollox to everyone else.

I just thought for a second that the Isle of Man was different.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Barlow

[Barlow]

  

4 hours ago, Nom de plume said:

Are we still pretending Nobles is going to be overwhelmed?

Jersey have 4 people in hospital.

The average age of those who died on their Island was 85 and above.

Vaccinate the over 50’s and crack on. Put an end to this madness once and for all.

 

There's no pretending about it. We just don't know. We have to be prepared for the realistic worst.

We all started 'pretending' that we had freedom and we may not have to go into lockdown again (in spite of all the obvious signs that the Isle of Man was not as secure as we thought).

 

[horatiotheturd]

Super shiny expensive hub day 1.

Vulnerable people stood in the cold and wet

https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/queues-form-on-first-day-of-new-airport-vaccination-hub/

[AcousticallyChallenged]

1 minute ago, horatiotheturd said:

Super shiny expensive hub day 1.

Vulnerable people stood in the cold and wet

https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/queues-form-on-first-day-of-new-airport-vaccination-hub/

It's okay, it's already been blamed on the vulnerable people.

[NoTail]

5 hours ago, Nom de plume said:

Are we still pretending Nobles is going to be overwhelmed?

Jersey have 4 people in hospital.

The average age of those who died on their Island was 85 and above.

Vaccinate the over 50’s and crack on. Put an end to this madness once and for all.

How could the average be 85 and above? Does not meet any definition of average i know of.

[horatiotheturd]

21 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

The figures are basing on it going as sideways as it is currently in England, and in theory, they can make 14 other ICU beds appear.

So @horatiotheturd is right, the ICU wouldn't be overwhelmed just from COVID. But COVID doesn't stop heart attacks etc. either. Ideally, you always want a bed to shove someone ill in.

Don't forget the extra ICU capacity that cane on line in spring and would be turned on again if needed.

You are also forgetting that those figures include people "with" COVID

I am convinced that if you did a straw poll of the Manx public and asked them how many ICU beds we would need if we replicated the UK right now they would think its way higher than six. Hence the disproportionate fear.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

8 minutes ago, horatiotheturd said:

Don't forget the extra ICU capacity that cane on line in spring and would be turned on again if needed.

You are also forgetting that those figures include people "with" COVID

I am convinced that if you did a straw poll of the Manx public and asked them how many ICU beds we would need if we replicated the UK right now they would think its way higher than six. Hence the disproportionate fear.

The figures for ICU are assuming everyone on a ventilator is in ICU. It's not accounting for people in ICU not on ventilators.

Bear in mind, ventilator use has decreased in favour of other interventions and is very much a last resort.

I think it is reasonable to suggest that our health service would be under significant strain either way.

[WTF]

39 minutes ago, horatiotheturd said:

Super shiny expensive hub day 1.

Vulnerable people stood in the cold and wet

https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/queues-form-on-first-day-of-new-airport-vaccination-hub/

that's the most people that aren't unnecessary staff that have been seen at the airport in the last 5 years.

Edited January 28, 2021 by WTF

[Apple]

Interesting to see all the mathematical connotations for Nobles beds.

Rather than 'beds' it may be better to view that here are extra areas and resources that have been and can be swiftly turned into facilities for nursing and treating Covid patients irrespective of need for ventilators etc.

Another point to consider is that we can, and have , transported very ill people off Island when stabilised to UK areas when needed. Even electives surgery may sometimes have an overnight ICU admission built in as part of a treatment plan.

I think Nobles (now 12 months later) has some degree of sensible resilience built in for actual patients in 'bed's.

What is does not have is an unlimited supply of staff, and that sometimes can cause concerns. But even then, staff from other areas can be redistributed / trained as and when needed.

We do need, even at this point, is the need to be building in more resilience and flexibility into the whole care network to stop the erosion that has been going on for along time, look again at why this was allowed to happen, was it government policy?, and to actually get smarter as to what we want our health services to deliver here, guaranteed, and how to respond to changing circumstances in future.

[quilp]

6 hours ago, Nom de plume said:

Jersey... 

 

[Zarley]

On 1/27/2021 at 10:00 AM, horatiotheturd said:

The world population has doubled in less than 50 years.  Clearly not sustainable and a bit of reduction of some of the old and weak wouldn't be a bad thing for the planet in general. 

Not a view that would likely garner much support from the masses though

I've had the feeling for quite some time now that your thinking was thus. 

Then one day you opened up and told us how you wanted - needed - family to be able to travel here because your daughter is a bed-bound invalid. (my heart goes out to you and your family in that regard)

But I cannot get my head around the idea that you want things that would very possibly put her at risk. I've been trying to understand it since you first brought her up, but I've let it go and kept my mouth shut... until now.

You've come right out and said you'd be happy to see "a bit of a reduction of some of the old and weak".

I have to ask, do you include your daughter in that, or only other people's loved ones?

 

[Nom de plume]

28 minutes ago, quilp said:

 

... *yawns* ...

[horatiotheturd]

16 minutes ago, Zarley said:

I've had the feeling for quite some time now that your thinking was thus. 

Then one day you opened up and told us how you wanted - needed - family to be able to travel here because your daughter is a bed-bound invalid. (my heart goes out to you and your family in that regard)

But I cannot get my head around the idea that you want things that would very possibly put her at risk. I've been trying to understand it since you first brought her up, but I've let it go and kept my mouth shut... until now.

You've come right out and said you'd be happy to see "a bit of a reduction of some of the old and weak".

I have to ask, do you include your daughter in that, or only other people's loved ones?

 

Honestly.  If you asked her she would rather not be here than exist like she does now.  Especially now she can't even look forward to see the few people in life she enjoys spending time with.

It would hugely hurt us as a family if she weren't here, but in total honesty would be a blessing for all concerned in the medium to long term.

Not easy to say or type but you did ask.