IOM Covid removing restrictions

[P.K.]

8 minutes ago, wrighty said:

You could argue that they should align with ours, given theirs is riskier.  The open border is just for direct IOM-Guernsey travel, with both sides being covid free hence no isolation required.  Somebody will no doubt argue that someone from, for example, Florida, might come to Guernsey, isolate for only 7 days, test negative, and then come over here and roam free, thereby bypassing our policy.  I'm not quite sure of the finer technical points of the open policy, but I think it's only for people ordinarily resident in each jurisdiction who have had no travel elsewhere in the previous 14 days.  As far fetched as my example may seem, these things have been thought about.

Quite.

But I have been in SWOT meetings where some folks would "What if....?" things ad infinitum if you let them.

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

43 minutes ago, wrighty said:

The median incubation period is 5-6 days.  So if you test at 7 you risk missing almost half of any cases there may be.  There's less than 2.5% at 14 days.  Guernsey's strategy is riskier than ours in terms of importing cases of covid.  You may argue that the risk is minimal, and as incidence (hopefully) continues to decrease in the UK then it may be that we feel comfortable introducing a slightly riskier border policy. 

The issue I have with this is the assumption everyone who returns has Covid 19.

The reality is that they don't.  The vast majority do not.  So the real risk of testing on a 7 day strategy is actually really low.

Guernsey information suggested over 80% would be testing positive if they had it (within that 7 day slot).

[wrighty]

10 minutes ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

The issue I have with this is the assumption everyone who returns has Covid 19.

The reality is that they don't.  The vast majority do not.  So the real risk of testing on a 7 day strategy is actually really low.

Guernsey information suggested over 80% would be testing positive if they had it (within that 7 day slot).

Everything you say is correct (except perhaps the 80% figure - it's a bit less than that, but not far off)

Some level of risk is acceptable to some and not others.  Our political leaders are having a hell of a time trying to balance this with the risks to the economy etc.

[Andy Onchan]

25 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Specificity 99.7%, Sensitivity depends on the time point you offer the test - manufacturers quote 100% at 40 days (I think), but 93% at 14 days.

Accuracy is a less well-defined term and depends on how many positive cases and how many negative cases you have.  But given those figures above I'd say it's 'very accurate'.

The first round of testing is almost complete and results will be made public as soon as the paper has been written up and verified.  Individual test results are given out within days - I was negative.

Me too. I was negative with the result coming through in just over 24hrs.

[Nom de plume]

The UK has recorded 290K new infections over the course of the last 4.5 months in a country populated by around 70,000,000 people (with illegals factored in).

That is approximately 0.4% of the population.

The hysteria levels are staggering. If people & Governments were really serious about saving lives and looking after the health of a nation they'd be banning the sale of alcohol and cigarettes but they don't because there's money to be made there.

[Flyingfemme]

Yeah that. What about the 165,000 people who die every year from cancer? How many more will die this year because they have been left undiagnosed and/or untreated for months?

[Nom de plume]

25 minutes ago, Flyingfemme said:

Yeah that. What about the 165,000 people who die every year from cancer? How many more will die this year because they have been left undiagnosed and/or untreated for months?

There is no definitive answer to that other than a f*****g shedload.

But masks on a London bus is a much better headline grabber.

[WTF]

2 hours ago, wrighty said:

 but at 14 days post-inoculation 

what inoculation ?   did you mean incubation ?

[ellanvannin2010]

2 hours ago, Nom de plume said:

It's a good question.

I'm thinking dedicated supermarket slots as we've done, home delivery pharmacy, etc etc

We need to be coming up with solutions rather than 'keep the borders closed'.

And if the elderly, vulnerable wanted the same freedoms to shop. go to bars and restaurants, travel, see family etc as the rest of the population, how would you or could you enforce the protection?.  I mean you could not, for instance,  refuse them treatment on the NHS if they refused to comply.

I am not convinced that keeping the border closed is doing any great damage to large swathes of our economy. Going back to the situation in March/April would be much worse .

It might not be the  lifestyle we have become used to being unable to travel freely but personally I have no desire to go on holiday in the present circumstances, not worth the trouble.

 

[wrighty]

26 minutes ago, WTF said:

what inoculation ?   did you mean incubation ?

Certainly didn’t mean incubation. Inoculation is the wrong word though as it implies being injected with it. I meant from the point in time you were infected with the virus. 

[Nom de plume]

15 minutes ago, ellanvannin2010 said:

And if the elderly, vulnerable wanted the same freedoms to shop. go to bars and restaurants, travel, see family etc as the rest of the population, how would you or could you enforce the protection?.  I mean you could not, for instance,  refuse them treatment on the NHS if they refused to comply.

I am not convinced that keeping the border closed is doing any great damage to large swathes of our economy. Going back to the situation in March/April would be much worse .

It might not be the  lifestyle we have become used to being unable to travel freely but personally I have no desire to go on holiday in the present circumstances, not worth the trouble.

 

I think you’re misguided on the economy & the short to medium term future will prove that (of course I hope I’m wrong).

The elderly & vulnerable would still be free to chance their arm so to speak, nobody would be incarcerating them (but the mechanisms should be in place to assist).

Our shops,, bars, restaurants, cafes, hotels, guest houses, B&B’s etc rely on spend, much of it generated by visitor numbers.

The Island is slowly choking itself but some don’t appear to be able to see it.

History will be the judge.

[dilligaf]

12 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

I think you’re misguided on the economy & the short to medium term future will prove that (of course I hope I’m wrong).

The elderly & vulnerable would still be free to chance their arm so to speak, nobody would be incarcerating them (but the mechanisms should be in place to assist).

Our shops,, bars, restaurants, cafes, hotels, guest houses, B&B’s etc rely on spend, much of it generated by visitor numbers.

The Island is slowly choking itself but some don’t appear to be able to see it.

History will be the judge.

Jobs in the hospitality industry should never be more important than the health of people, regardless of age. Think a bit deeper about what you are proposing and how elderly or vulnerable people see your comments. Pretty selfish if you ask me.

[Nom de plume]

18 minutes ago, dilligaf said:

Jobs in the hospitality industry should never be more important than the health of people, regardless of age. Think a bit deeper about what you are proposing and how elderly or vulnerable people see your comments. Pretty selfish if you ask me.

I’ve elderly parents who share my opinion.

They understand what’s at stake here long term (also having been in business all their lives).

Also, how do you view the almost blanket shutdown of medical services, thereby preventing diagnosis of disease & treatment of ongoing conditions? That’s acceptable?

Edited July 14, 2020 by Nom de plume

[Uhtred]

There's no logic being applied to this at all (much more so in UK than here said Uhtred, acknowledging better performance locally!) because (i) there are politicians involved and (ii) those politicians are the shockingly dreadful Johnson administration.

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

20 minutes ago, dilligaf said:

Jobs in the hospitality industry should never be more important than the health of people, regardless of age. Think a bit deeper about what you are proposing and how elderly or vulnerable people see your comments. Pretty selfish if you ask me.

You do understand that there is a tipping point where more harm than good is done ?