TheTeapot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Today is the first day since 2nd October that the UK has reported less than 10000 new cases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Non-Believer Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, TheTeapot said: Today is the first day since 2nd October that the UK has reported less than 10000 new cases. The Monday figures for both new infections and deaths are always understated due to the "lag" in weekend reporting too though. Tuesdays and Wednesdays figures usually correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Non-Believer said: The Monday figures for both new infections and deaths are always understated due to the "lag" in weekend reporting too though. Tuesdays and Wednesdays figures usually correct. I believe The Teapot is reinforcing the notion that case numbers are rapidly declining, certainly steadily reducing. ... but you knew that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Non-Believer said: The Monday figures for both new infections and deaths are always understated due to the "lag" in weekend reporting too though. Tuesdays and Wednesdays figures usually correct. Yes I know, but there have been quite a few Mondays since october. There's no doubt things re improving over there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Non-Believer Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Nom de plume said: I believe The Teapot is reinforcing the notion that case numbers are rapidly declining, certainly steadily reducing. ... but you knew that. It was purely an objective post although I appreciate it may not suit your narrative. Any fall in the numbers is very welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, Nom de plume said: @Barlow I really want to see your point here, I genuinely do. There is nobody more thankful than I for the hard work & dedication of the NHS believe me (another story, another day). The figures (approx) are these: 88% of all UK Covid deaths were aged 70 years old and above 55% of all UK Covid hospital admissions were 70 years old and above That age group are now largely well on their way to be vaccinated. By the end of April, nearly all over 50's and those deemed to have underlying health conditions will also be vaccinated. The risk & strain on the NHS will be diminished. Are you following? The key to all of this is the effect of the vaccine on transmission. IF it prevents transmission as well as it seems to prevent disease, then your suggestion to open up and crack on with it once all over 50s are jabbed will probably be OK. If the vaccine does nothing to prevent transmission then if you open up in May, by July the NHS will be overwhelmed with 30-50 year olds filling up ITUs - in reality government would lockdown again before that happened. The reality is probably somewhere between the two. I’ve seen a figure of 55% efficacy at preventing transmission. This puts R at or just over 1 if you unlock everything once the over 50s are covered. But we don’t know yet. I’m certainly hopeful of a restriction free summer and beyond, but right now it’s too close to call. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Nom de plume said: I believe The Teapot is reinforcing the notion that case numbers are rapidly declining, certainly steadily reducing. Yes. I was reading some analysis the other day, there plenty of it out there, where you could see the effects of various actions taken, like eat out to help out, the schools in September, christmas shopping etc. They'd be doing themselves a huge favour in my view by continuing on their current path for a bit longer yet, really get the amount of virus circulating right down before pushing for a re-opening. Shut down to open up is the tagline. Edited February 15, 2021 by TheTeapot 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cambon Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I would like to think some easing of restrictions can come in at the end of may. However, I don't see unfettered borders before September when everyone is vaccinated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 29 minutes ago, 2112 said: The word in the adjacent isle, is that cricket clubs are using their indoor facilities and pavilion for inoculations and their car parks used as a testing/swab centre The information on vaccination sites in England is available here There are just shy of 1600 sites which is a mixture of hospitals, GP surgeries, Pharmacies and specific vaccination centres that have been newly set up. That equates to 1 per 35,000 population, so our 2 sites plus use of Ward 20 and the proposed hub in the North of the island stacks up quite well against that. The impression sometimes given is that there is a vaccination centre on every street corner in the UK but that isn't quite the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Unemployment continues to increase as a result of lockdown, restrictions etc and concerns are that it won’t get much better in short term https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/unemployment-rises-on-the-isle-of-man/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ellanvannin2010 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, trmpton said: Which you would think is all positive and giving people something to look forward to. Yet, there are a significant number over here who would seem to prefer that we continue to live in our island bubble cut off from the rest of the world. This whole thing does seem to have made an already slightly scary section of our population who hate everything from more than 20 miles from St John’s, even more determined to keep us all isolated. I am really surprised how many people are saying they would happily live like this forever. Most of these will be the the young folk that strike on Fridays about climate change, if we are going to be carbon neutral by 2035 as they and Hooper appear to want then this travelling to foreign shores every few weeks will have to stop. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gladys Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I don't think anyone is disputing that we have the facilities for vaccination, just that they have been over specified, over engineered and over priced for no obvious reason or benefit. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 50 minutes ago, wrighty said: The key to all of this is the effect of the vaccine on transmission. IF it prevents transmission as well as it seems to prevent disease, then your suggestion to open up and crack on with it once all over 50s are jabbed will probably be OK. If the vaccine does nothing to prevent transmission then if you open up in May, by July the NHS will be overwhelmed with 30-50 year olds filling up ITUs - in reality government would lockdown again before that happened. The reality is probably somewhere between the two. I’ve seen a figure of 55% efficacy at preventing transmission. This puts R at or just over 1 if you unlock everything once the over 50s are covered. But we don’t know yet. I’m certainly hopeful of a restriction free summer and beyond, but right now it’s too close to call. Do you think we would really have 30 to 50 year olds filling up Itus considering those with underlying health conditions should have been vaccinated? Have to say I can’t see it, maybe a very small number of otherwise fit and healthy people in that bracket but I don’t believe it happened last winter before lockdown measures kicked in? Every media bit I have seen about someone in that bracket who has really suffered they have had another condition (or been overweight) Everyone I know in that bracket would happily take their chances at the tiny percentage risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 15 minutes ago, trmpton said: Do you think we would really have 30 to 50 year olds filling up Itus considering those with underlying health conditions should have been vaccinated? Have to say I can’t see it, maybe a very small number of otherwise fit and healthy people in that bracket but I don’t believe it happened last winter before lockdown measures kicked in? Every media bit I have seen about someone in that bracket who has really suffered they have had another condition (or been overweight) Everyone I know in that bracket would happily take their chances at the tiny percentage risk. No more than a ‘bad TT’. Thats the reality. The fear is still strong in some it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 32 minutes ago, Nom de plume said: No more than a ‘bad TT’. Thats the reality. The fear is still strong in some it is. These figures for last week would suggest that 30-50 have the most positive cases, but a very small number of hospital admissions with covid. I honestly don’t see any reason not to open borders at the end of May and keep it under constant review. I don’t foresee loads of youngish people without vaccination becoming ill based on any figures I have ever seen. There will be a few, but hardly any. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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