IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Cascarino]

4 hours ago, Non-Believer said:

Is there any consideration for the cost implications of the suggested long term effects of COVID? The possible years of hospital treatment of surviving victims? At the end of the day - commercial freight, post and essentials are still incoming and outgoing. As are key personnel. Business on the island is slowly returning to normal. The only things incoming-restricted are pax. Our tourist industry is/was on its knees long before COVID. It's not the huge player in our economy that it was. 

Business on the island is a long way from returning to normal. Many IOM companies depend on interaction off island. The losses so far have been significant but next years losses will be even higher (Covid or no Covid)  if new business cannot be generated, which will not happen by sitting at your desk in Douglas.

[woolley]

18 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

4.3% of those diagnosed have died across the world. 7% of those diagnosed on the Isle of Man died. Small issue I guess, that's how you like it.

But how many had it and experienced only mild symptoms or none at all? Percentages are skewed because only the most serious cases are officially diagnosed. This is what's scaring people. 

[TheTeapot]

1 minute ago, woolley said:

But how many had it and experienced only mild symptoms or none at all? Percentages are skewed because only the most serious cases are officially diagnosed. This is what's scaring people. 

I know they're all skewed Woolley. You can do anything with statistics to back up any argument you want. Still, the longer it goes on and the more data there is the more you can detect patterns that are something closer to the truth.

[Mr Newbie]

4 hours ago, Non-Believer said:

Business on the island is slowly returning to normal. 

It isn’t really. Sorry to say but it isn’t. People are being remarkably resilient and government money has helped keep many afloat for now but it’s far from business as usual for many places. I’m amazed how private fear and panic in some places hasn’t manifested itself in public anger as I know of many people who have not earned for getting on for months now as well as servicing debt and bills etc. The message from Tanrogan is a positive one. They’ve probably realized there is no point in paying a big lease for premises with next to no footfall when they’ve been doing deliveries which you could do from your garage without the overheads. They’ve also said they’ll be back in one form or another. Like a lot of people they’ve probably had a few months to consider whether they could be arsed with all the hassle just to pay someone else’s lease. 

[Roger Mexico]

32 minutes ago, cheesypeas said:

....but the restaurant has alluded to moving on to a new project. So does look like they will be opening as something different.

Oh I appreciate that, the closure has clearly given a lot of businesses a chance to re-evaluate what they were doing.  Some may decide to alter things for personal reasons (as seems to be the case with Compton Vaults)  or because it gives then the chance to change the way they do things.  My point was a more general one that those who claim that we have to do things 'for the economy' are actually risking harm to the economy as well as people's health.

[Roger Mexico]

10 minutes ago, woolley said:

But how many had it and experienced only mild symptoms or none at all? Percentages are skewed because only the most serious cases are officially diagnosed. This is what's scaring people. 

Well we should have some sort of idea from the antibody studies that wrighty referred to.  But results from elsewhere suggest it won't be particularly high, Jersey's latest figure is 4.2% for example.  You need something like 94% for 'herd immunity'.

When you add to that the possibility that immunity may be quite quickly lost for some people, then claiming that people who haven't yet had it will be somehow immune is just wishful thinking I'm afraid.

[Banker]

The main issue for business who need to do off island travel and also the hospitality sector which depends on incoming visitors is that there does not seem to be any set criteria for getting to stage two or three so no one can plan . If Howie said we will open borders when U.K. r rate is 0.5 or whatever then we would all know that when rate is near then reopening is near.

guernsey are looking at announcing business tunnels soon where business travellers can do day returns to/from Guernsey.

[woolley]

16 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

Well we should have some sort of idea from the antibody studies that wrighty referred to.  But results from elsewhere suggest it won't be particularly high, Jersey's latest figure is 4.2% for example.  You need something like 94% for 'herd immunity'.

When you add to that the possibility that immunity may be quite quickly lost for some people, then claiming that people who haven't yet had it will be somehow immune is just wishful thinking I'm afraid.

I'm not doing that, Roger. As I said in my post last night, it is not looking hopeful for natural acquired immunity and neither are the prospects of a vaccine. In my post that you quoted in your above reply, I referred explicitly to those who had it and experienced only mild symptoms or none at all. I am not assuming any immunity whatsoever. A mild illness is the experience of the overwhelming majority.

[woolley]

1 hour ago, Non-Believer said:

I think it must be based on the premise that all human life is sacred (well some of it anyway) and must be preserved as long as possible, tied in to the Hippocratic Oath etc etc?

I start getting worried when people use words like sacred. Religion usually isn't far behind.

[Roger Mexico]

Just now, woolley said:

I'm not doing that, Roger. As I said in my post last night, it is not looking hopeful for natural acquired immunity and neither are the prospects of a vaccine. In my post that you quoted in your above reply, I referred explicitly to those who had it and experienced only mild symptoms or none at all. I am not assuming any immunity whatsoever. A mild illness is the experience of the overwhelming majority.

I was addressing a more general perception that you personally[1], but my point is that there just aren't that many who have had mild or no symptoms.  Those who have should be showing some level of antibodies, at least for a time after, and widespread antibody testing isn't finding them in great numbers.   3-5% seems typical and the highest I've seen only about 20% and that maybe a product of dubious testing.  So the number of milder cases may be less than some think and so the chance of an infection turning serious higher.

To make things worse it's now looking as if a minority of those who have suffered milder cases of Covid-19 (certainly not enough to need hospitalisation) may still have longer term health problems derived from it.  So it's something that no one wants to risk catching.

 

[1]  One of the problems with the English language is the way we use 'you' to mean 'one' or even 'some people'.

[wrighty]

59 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

  You need something like 94% for 'herd immunity'.

 

Not for covid.  You need 1-1/R0 for herd immunity - the R0 for covid is about 3, so it'll be about 67%.  Measles is closer to 90% since its R0 is about 10.

And as for antibodies - they may not be the main mode of immunity.  Perhaps the real reason that many people either don't seem susceptible or have a very mild illness (and don't generate an antibody response) is due to pre-existing T cell immunity (or NK cell immunity).

[Banker]

This is link to Guernsey borders policy setting out business tunnels. Seems like something we should do 

https://covid19.gov.gg/guidance/travel

[woolley]

First bridges, now tunnels.

[quilp]

1 hour ago, wrighty said:

Not for covid.  You need 1-1/R0 for herd immunity - the R0 for covid is about 3, so it'll be about 67%.  Measles is closer to 90% since its R0 is about 10.

And as for antibodies - they may not be the main mode of immunity.  Perhaps the real reason that many people either don't seem susceptible or have a very mild illness (and don't generate an antibody response) is due to pre-existing T cell immunity (or NK cell immunity).

An interesting video regarding T-cells and herd immunity. 

 

[Andy Onchan]

2 hours ago, wrighty said:

Not for covid.  You need 1-1/R0 for herd immunity - the R0 for covid is about 3, so it'll be about 67%.  Measles is closer to 90% since its R0 is about 10.

And as for antibodies - they may not be the main mode of immunity.  Perhaps the real reason that many people either don't seem susceptible or have a very mild illness (and don't generate an antibody response) is due to pre-existing T cell immunity (or NK cell immunity).

There's an article in the DT about T cells.