IOM Covid removing restrictions

[AcousticallyChallenged]

15 or 18, it was always going to be a few more cases and we're going into lockdown.

They'll say 'risk of community seeding' and 'circuit break' a lot tonight, almost certainly.

 

[Barlow]

9 minutes ago, Gladys said:

I am sure I heard 15 on MR during the Mannin Line, but as it was the ubiquitous Mr Wint, I thought it was probably wrong. 

Erm, Andy Wint is never wrong.

[Roger Mexico]

20 minutes ago, The Phantom said:

Aukland had a small outbreak about a week ago. 

They locked down for about 4 days whilst they did hardcore contact tracing. 

This seems fairly viable to me. 

I know I keep banging on about New Zealand, but you only have to look at their latest media release on the most recent Auckland cluster[1].  Some points:

A.  They are much more open about the cases, using letters for the cases (so no identification).  This means we can see the structure of the outbreak and how it is spread.

B.   They don't wait till 'contact tracing is finished' or whatever excuse they want to give out for inaction.  Time is important and partial information i(with all relevant provisos added better than saying nothing.  As more information is know that is then released in regular updates from their Media Centre.

C.  They don't just test close contacts they retest them.  Today's Case G had previously tested negative.  Again this is important because you can then chase down any extra contacts from them.

D.  If there is a cluster they open more testing centres to cope (including dedicated ones for particular sites of infection such as a school) and encourage all possible contacts to get tested.  Last night the Manx response was justifying not giving out info on the grounds of stopping people asking for tests.

E.  They use genomics (24 hour response) to check the routes of transmission (so they can reassure they are only dealing with one source) but also to trace back to the original source of infection (currently a mystery).  This means they may pick up asymptomatic cases which could still be spreading in the community sooner.

All these are things we could learn from.

 

[1]  Note that they call these community cases because they don't engage in magical thinking that calling them something else will somehow reduce the danger.

[ManxTaxPayer]

19 hours ago, Barlow said:

 

 

Camel Tie. 

[Banker]

6 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

15 or 18, it was always going to be a few more cases and we're going into lockdown.

They'll say 'risk of community seeding' and 'circuit break' a lot tonight, almost certainly.

 

Still ok for pub then as nothing will come into place until midnight tomorrow or tonight at earliest 

[quilp]

Just now, Banker said:

Still ok for pub then as nothing will come into place until midnight tomorrow or tonight at earliest 

You see, what's the point of this airheaded preamble? Who fucking cares about you and your drinking habits? 

[TheTeapot]

In the run up to lockdown II I suggested that cos the kids were still off school but about to go back they could keep them shut a few more days and ask people to work from home if they could, mask up, socially distance etc while they properly went to town on testing and tracing, to avoid the lockdown. Instead they panicked and forced the lockdown on us.

I would hope they take this approach this time. A few days off school at the start of next week is far better than another month locked up.

[piebaps]

2 hours ago, Utah 01 said:

I venture to suggest (helmet donned and standing-by for incoming) that the vast majority of the aforementioned are 'as Manx as the hills,' (and probably as old) and their lives on our Irish Sea 'Alcatraz' will simply plod on and on and on.

Indeed and bloody marvellous it is too.

Obviously if you don't like it....................best stay where you are for now. The boat is apparently a bit iffy at the mo.

Edited February 19, 2021 by piebaps

[Nom de plume]

10 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

I know I keep banging on about New Zealand, but you only have to look at their latest media release on the most recent Auckland cluster[1].  Some points:

A.  They are much more open about the cases, using letters for the cases (so no identification).  This means we can see the structure of the outbreak and how it is spread.

B.   They don't wait till 'contact tracing is finished' or whatever excuse they want to give out for inaction.  Time is important and partial information i(with all relevant provisos added better than saying nothing.  As more information is know that is then released in regular updates from their Media Centre.

C.  They don't just test close contacts they retest them.  Today's Case G had previously tested negative.  Again this is important because you can then chase down any extra contacts from them.

D.  If there is a cluster they open more testing centres to cope (including dedicated ones for particular sites of infection such as a school) and encourage all possible contacts to get tested.  Last night the Manx response was justifying not giving out info on the grounds of stopping people asking for tests.

E.  They use genomics (24 hour response) to check the routes of transmission (so they can reassure they are only dealing with one source) but also to trace back to the original source of infection (currently a mystery).  This means they may pick up asymptomatic cases which could still be spreading in the community sooner.

All these are things we could learn from.

 

[1]  Note that they call these community cases because they don't engage in magical thinking that calling them something else will somehow reduce the danger.

All by the by now brother, we're opening up in May ... just need to see a couple of months out ;0)

[Roger Mexico]

2 hours ago, Maire said:

 I thought the circuit breaks were a case of trying to stop the hospitals from being overwhelmed rather than total elimination of the virus?

We need to realise that this is here and won't go away, we need to learn to live with it and to keep the balance of 'normality' vs 'breakdown of NHS'.

That was the initial idea, but you only have to look at England to see what a disastrous policy that is.  The truth is you can't manage an epidemic in that way - you can't have a little bit of an epidemic.  You end up with periods of lower restrictions when the virus gradually spreads followed by prolonged periods of semi-lockdown and overflowing hospitals while it slowly subsides. 

And then it starts all over again, except that the hospitals are still pretty full because people take a long time to recover (or die) from Covid.

[Ham_N_Eggs]

12 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

I know I keep banging on about New Zealand, but you only have to look at their latest media release on the most recent Auckland cluster[1].  Some points:

A.  They are much more open about the cases, using letters for the cases (so no identification).  This means we can see the structure of the outbreak and how it is spread.

B.   They don't wait till 'contact tracing is finished' or whatever excuse they want to give out for inaction.  Time is important and partial information i(with all relevant provisos added better than saying nothing.  As more information is know that is then released in regular updates from their Media Centre.

C.  They don't just test close contacts they retest them.  Today's Case G had previously tested negative.  Again this is important because you can then chase down any extra contacts from them.

D.  If there is a cluster they open more testing centres to cope (including dedicated ones for particular sites of infection such as a school) and encourage all possible contacts to get tested.  Last night the Manx response was justifying not giving out info on the grounds of stopping people asking for tests.

E.  They use genomics (24 hour response) to check the routes of transmission (so they can reassure they are only dealing with one source) but also to trace back to the original source of infection (currently a mystery).  This means they may pick up asymptomatic cases which could still be spreading in the community sooner.

All these are things we could learn from.

 

[1]  Note that they call these community cases because they don't engage in magical thinking that calling them something else will somehow reduce the danger.

Unless Guernsey do it we won't do it. It's utterly bizarre. 

[Nom de plume]

Just now, Ham_N_Eggs said:

Unless Guernsey do it we won't do it. It's utterly bizarre. 

It's in the 'too hard', 'pending' basket, ergo, never going to happen. 

[Zarley]

2 minutes ago, Ham_N_Eggs said:

Unless Guernsey do it we won't do it. It's utterly bizarre. 

Aye but Guernsey do a damn sight better job of being transparent and disseminating detailed info.

Here on the Isle of Man (Where You Can) the continue to treat us like children who must be shielded from the truth. 

[AcousticallyChallenged]

5 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

That was the initial idea, but you only have to look at England to see what a disastrous policy that is.  The truth is you can't manage an epidemic in that way - you can't have a little bit of an epidemic.  You end up with periods of lower restrictions when the virus gradually spreads followed by prolonged periods of semi-lockdown and overflowing hospitals while it slowly subsides. 

And then it starts all over again, except that the hospitals are still pretty full because people take a long time to recover (or die) from Covid.

England does have the disadvantage of being quite big and diverse.

What works in London might not be needed in a little village in the Cotswolds. Making policy to sweep across that is hard, when you've got rural areas with relatively little transmission, mixed with dense urban areas acting as petri dishes.

But, you lock down a petri dish and everyone will flood to the areas that aren't restricted. Suddenly your little village of Sandford is a hotspot for it.

So, then, as you restrict everyone, compliance drops because it is seen as an unfair blanket ban.

I agree though, you either eliminate, vaccinate or ebb and flow through restrictions. England also never could nip things in the bud, instead acting too late when the horse had long bolted.

[Out of the blue]

2 hours ago, pongo said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I'm_entitled_to_my_opinion#:~:text=I'm entitled to my opinion or I have a,"Let's agree to disagree".

https://theconversation.com/no-youre-not-entitled-to-your-opinion-9978

It's what flat-earthers, anti-vaxxers, anti-capitalists and conspiracy nutters in general will often say - that facts are just one point of view but that they are entitled to theirs.

Nope the world is definitely round, capitalism has been very good to me, and we did land on the moon.