Nom de plume Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 I’d suggest the assumed figures are light too. Nothing the intelligent didn’t already know I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Wright Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, Nom de plume said: I’d suggest the assumed figures are light too. Nothing the intelligent didn’t already know I guess. It’s an extrapolation from the first 5,000 antibody tests. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Onchan Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 16 hours ago, rachomics said: Influenza and coronaviruses are VERY different. A good metaphor is humans and slugs. Sometimes hard to tell the difference though! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 (edited) https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-health-secretary-matt-hancock-orders-urgent-review-into-public-health-england-death-data-12030392 So the Covid mortality stats are massively skewed, well, well ... Edited July 18, 2020 by Nom de plume 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Nom de plume said: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-health-secretary-matt-hancock-orders-urgent-review-into-public-health-england-death-data-12030392 So the Covid mortality stats are massively skewed, well, well ... No they're not - though it might suit the UK Government and its media lapdogs to pretend there are. There won't be that many who have been been diagnosed, recovered and then died of something else entirely (rather than the aftereffects of Covid, which can be complicated and serious). There simply hasn't been the time for that to happen - the first UK cases were less than five months ago after all. I'm sure there will a few cases among the 45,000 deaths or so that were genuinely due to other causes, but they will be outweighed by deaths caused by the virus that were not diagnosed officially - especially early in the crisis. Edited to add: There are good reasons for the current protocol. Some people may take a long time to die from Covid - for example this American actor who had been hospitalised for months and didn't die till July. He probably wouldn't have tested positive for the virus recently, but it was what killed him. Edited July 18, 2020 by Roger Mexico 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTF Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 5 hours ago, John Wright said: You have to deduct the number that were diagnosed from those figures. 7 of clubs ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 2 hours ago, Roger Mexico said: No they're not - though it might suit the UK Government and its media lapdogs to pretend there are. There won't be that many who have been been diagnosed, recovered and then died of something else entirely (rather than the aftereffects of Covid, which can be complicated and serious). There simply hasn't been the time for that to happen - the first UK cases were less than five months ago after all. I'm sure there will a few cases among the 45,000 deaths or so that were genuinely due to other causes, but they will be outweighed by deaths caused by the virus that were not diagnosed officially - especially early in the crisis. Edited to add: There are good reasons for the current protocol. Some people may take a long time to die from Covid - for example this American actor who had been hospitalised for months and didn't die till July. He probably wouldn't have tested positive for the virus recently, but it was what killed him. But it's only England that have been recording deaths where Covid diagnosed at any time , the other nations haven't which may explain how the Scots have done so well!! PHE confirmed that it may be recording deaths from coronavirus even if people have died months after a positive test. Other UK nations only include those who died within 28 days of testing positive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted July 18, 2020 Share Posted July 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, Banker said: But it's only England that have been recording deaths where Covid diagnosed at any time , the other nations haven't which may explain how the Scots have done so well!! PHE confirmed that it may be recording deaths from coronavirus even if people have died months after a positive test. Other UK nations only include those who died within 28 days of testing positive. But you're missing my point. Common sense tells you there just won't be that many people in that situation. And some of those who die more than 28 days after testing positive will have done so because of the virus[1]. It can take a long time to die from Covid-19 - if you consider that on average it's about 3 weeks from infection to death, then there will be a lot who test positive a few days after infection and then hang on for a week or two more before finally succumbing. It can take long enough to recover - the first woman to be hospitalised on the Island on 25 March wasn't out even of ICU till 5 May There will some deaths that weren't caused by Covid included, but very few because people simply haven't had the time to die of something else. And even some case where it looks like that has happened, it possibly played an effect. Someone could be weakened by it and then been killed by a different infection. It certainly won't balance out the way that the approximately 45,000 in the official death toll underestimates the actual figure. There have been about 55,000 death certificates mentioning Covid-19 while the 'excess mortality' is about 65,000[2]. Even the excess mortality may be an underestimate as the deaths in the first two months of the year were lower than average and the measures against Covid-19 will also have reduced deaths from other causes as well. As to there being fewer deaths per capita outside England I suspect that is due to a mixture of different measure that the devolved administrations imposed and geography. [1] This is such an obvious point that I suspect that the protocols in Scotland, Wales and NI are based on a positive test in the last 28 days or Covid-19 being agreed as contributory to the death. [2] Both these are 'lagging' indicators, so not quite up to date as it takes time to register deaths and then process the paperwork. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monasqueen Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 There are also deaths that have been brought about by Covid 19, even when the affected person has never had the virus, or been tested for it. I have had a letter from an old colleague in the UK, whose husband died at the end of April, from a cancerous tumour. He was all set to have radiotherapy and chemo. The medics then advised them that "due to the virus", as the cancer treatment was "merely to extend his life", and they had to make tough decisions, the offer of treatment was being withdrawn. It was at that point he gave up trying to keep going. He died fairly soon after. No-one will ever know how much his life was shortened. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gladys Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, monasqueen said: There are also deaths that have been brought about by Covid 19, even when the affected person has never had the virus, or been tested for it. I have had a letter from an old colleague in the UK, whose husband died at the end of April, from a cancerous tumour. He was all set to have radiotherapy and chemo. The medics then advised them that "due to the virus", as the cancer treatment was "merely to extend his life", and they had to make tough decisions, the offer of treatment was being withdrawn. It was at that point he gave up trying to keep going. He died fairly soon after. No-one will ever know how much his life was shortened. I fear there are many stories just like that. When we look back, I do hope that the general response to Covid is not judged to be worse than the disease - economically, socially and mentally, not to mention the impact on non-Covid illnesses. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Gladys said: I fear there are many stories just like that. When we look back, I do hope that the general response to Covid is not judged to be worse than the disease - economically, socially and mentally, not to mention the impact on non-Covid illnesses. I think there will be almost as many died as a result of not getting treatment due to treatments being cancelled and lockdowns. Regrettably a lot of younger people died from other ailments than from COVID-19 whereas a lot of those who died from the virus were near end of life anyway like all the nursing home deaths 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monasqueen Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Gladys said: I fear there are many stories just like that. When we look back, I do hope that the general response to Covid is not judged to be worse than the disease - economically, socially and mentally, not to mention the impact on non-Covid illnesses. Agreed. I have a friend (also across) who was diagnosed with prostate cancer back in March. I have not heard that he has started any treatment, and I daren't ask. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoTail Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 50 minutes ago, monasqueen said: Agreed. I have a friend (also across) who was diagnosed with prostate cancer back in March. I have not heard that he has started any treatment, and I daren't ask. Your friend will probably be ok. Prostate cancer is usually very slow growing, sometimes it is not treated at all. Good luck to your friend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quilp Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 On 7/18/2020 at 1:47 PM, Nom de plume said: So the Covid mortality stats are massively skewed, well, well ... On 7/18/2020 at 3:32 PM, Roger Mexico said: No they're not... Hard to tell really though, innit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, quilp said: Hard to tell really though, innit? No it's fairly easy. What Nom de Plume was referring to was something completely different - claiming that a very large number of those who had been recorded as Coronavirus deaths weren't. I showed that the opposite was the case - that the main problem is Covid-19 deaths aren't all in the English figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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