IOM Covid removing restrictions

[AcousticallyChallenged]

9 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

I have given up on that subject

But if I hadn't I'd ask you this. Didnt they get these positive results this morning which mean your genomic sequencing would be available tomorrow at lunchtime (outline results) and Monday morning for  complete report. 

I believe that all close contacts have been tested and those results will be available tomorrow am and the plan will depend upon them.

I give up because I am constantly misquoted. The genomic sequencing would be good but the track and trace is always at least 24hours in front and is much more crucial to stopping infection routes.

It's the last time I will be drawn.......till next time

Genomic sequencing is done on the back of the PCR testing, Dr Glover has already said full report could be generated within 24 hours. Not 36.

You're conflating the two things we need to know.

Contact tracing is mostly focused on identifying who the new cases have passed it onto. That's useful for working out who to put in self isolation going forward. Working backwards is much harder.

The test for a lockdown, is how those new cases got the virus. At the moment, contact tracing would have to work out what the new cases and 40 cases have in common. Genomics within 24 hours narrows down that net massively. Firstly, with how many people it has been through to get to unknown cases, and secondly, who they caught it from.

That tells us the extent of the community spread, and more importantly, gives us the information we need as to whether a lockdown is needed.

Without that, we can't say whether it is in the community, or is there is a missing link that can be identified.

Of course, if we'd had the genomics set up and ready to go beforehand, they'd already be underway to potentially avoiding lockdown tomorrow.

[Boris Johnson]

I find it incredible that HQ said one of the reasons they were not implementing a formal lock down or official closure of some establishments today was because of a lack of laws in place to allow this at short notice.

WTAF! Could they not have seen this being needed at some point?

Edited February 27, 2021 by Boris Johnson

[manxst]

11 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

I cant be blamed for government giving wrong information didnt HQ say he only found at at 10am this morning or did I dream that.

No, but you can be ‘blamed’ for not having the capacity to think independently from the government and their press releases. As others have stated, that is incorrect. The news was known yesterday. 

[Happier diner]

8 minutes ago, daisy said:

They were contact tracing 'all night' so they knew well before this morning

But that just doesn't add up. If they has positive tests yesterday am, surely they would have some results from close contacts today. 

Leaving the debate about the subject I don't discuss anymore aside for  minute,  doesnt anyone agree that is strange. 

[ian rush]

The laws need to be sufficiently clear that people can be prosecuted for breach. If there is lockdown 3 it may be different restrictions from 1 and 2. 

[Boris Johnson]

21 minutes ago, philwebs said:

Are the revised PCR guidelines issued by the WHO  on

20 January 2021/13 January 2021  being followed?

Are the number of cycles being disclosed?

https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05

Covid cases plummeted in most countries after this time.

 

"Description of the problem: WHO requests users to follow the instructions for use (IFU) when interpreting results for specimens tested using PCR methodology.  

Users of IVDs must read and follow the IFU carefully to determine if manual adjustment of the PCR positivity threshold is recommended by the manufacturer.

WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed (1). The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load. Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology.

WHO reminds IVD users that disease prevalence alters the predictive value of test results; as disease prevalence decreases, the risk of false positive increases (2). This means that the probability that a person who has a positive result (SARS-CoV-2 detected) is truly infected with SARS-CoV-2 decreases as prevalence decreases, irrespective of the claimed specificity.

Most PCR assays are indicated as an aid for diagnosis, therefore, health care providers must consider any result in combination with timing of sampling, specimen type, assay specifics, clinical observations, patient history, confirmed status of any contacts, and epidemiological information.

Actions to be taken by IVD users:

1. Please read carefully the IFU in its entirety.
2. Contact your local representative if there is any aspect of the IFU that is unclear to you.
3. Check the IFU for each incoming consignment to detect any changes to the IFU.
4. Provide the Ct value in the report to the requesting health care provider."  <<REVEAL THE FIGURE PLEASE<<

 

If the PCR value is too high you get too many false positives. If they are using 40 cycles the values much too high..

Note what Kary Mullis says. He won a Nobel Prize for the PCR. He has harsh words to on the PCR as a diagnostic tool, and on Fauchi.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXm9kAhNj-4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5aISPlTLbJo

 

 

Be interested in what Dr Glover has to say about the above?

[Happier diner]

8 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

Genomic sequencing is done on the back of the PCR testing, Dr Glover has already said full report could be generated within 24 hours. Not 36.

.

Things must have changed.

[CowMan]

36 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

Yes true. In his defence though he did say there would be a decision either way tomorrow. Maybe we can forgive him, or give him a chance for 24hrs. 

Then we can slate him

All I’m really pointing out is that it seems to be all about trying to fight off the constant public battering demanding lockdowns. If you want people to stop work (that’s a lockdown) then you need to pay them to not work otherwise it’s not going to work. It’s clear H&B are now shutting their pubs because there’s going to be a lot less people out regardless so it might not be worth opening now. And all it seems to me that we’ve done now is screw over a load of minimum wage pub and restaurant workers who will have been sent home tonight as they are not required and who government now seems to expect to go and sit at home for nothing. While all of the people who have made this decision still get paid. 

[Roger Mexico]

16 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

 Didnt they get these positive results this morning which mean your genomic sequencing would be available tomorrow at lunchtime (outline results) and Monday morning for  complete report. 

Well unless it was a very strange coincidence, that 3FM comment last night suggests they knew then.  Maybe they wanted to to redo the test to check, but that means they lied in the figures they put out yesterday. 

But with a 'community' positive test (or maybe two) yesterday, they could have had a sequence by now.  And if they had been sequencing all positive cases in the latest cluster, they might have been able to link it with some of those.  Or not (which would be a worry).  Or they mighty decide that even if the route of spread was known there were too many cases and contacts.

The point is they would have the information to act on, rather than dithering and vaguely suggesting and hoping things would miraculously get better.

[Hmmmm]

Difficult to fathom which way the COMIN and Howie are going on this outbreak.  Do we know what strain the SP cluster is - was it ascertained in the mid week briefing.  This is surely relevant data when coming to a considered decision, particularly if it is the Kent variant, which is known to be more transmissible and virulent (the relatively large number of positives from people self isolating appear at odds with xmas and new year clusters).  Similarly, what is this data they are waiting for - outstanding tests from close contacts of the two cases -  I was surprised none asked the question.  There does seem a different approach to the January cases.  It would be interesting to know who is involved in the decision making process besides COMIN and Public Health - I suspect t and t have a input but who else - is there another epidemiologist or experts co opted?

[Cambon]

3 hours ago, Banker said:

Well I am and certainly not staying in my house on a lovely sunny day, what idiot thought that advice up?

Luckily luckily, the majority of the great Manx public disagree with you, and are acting responsibly.

[doc.fixit]

Although not a fan of HQ or his minions I sure wouldn't like to be in their position at the moment. In spite of all the comments and suggested ways forward on the forum I doubt there are many who would actually be able to do much better.

Edited February 27, 2021 by doc.fixit

[John Wright]

I’m not too sure what genomics would tell us about these 2 cases that would inform the lock down decision.

Its either from the Steam Packet case, but at two or three removed, ie transmissions, so there’s no overlap of risky places, or it’s a case that’s got in undetected, or been passed around asymptomatically since New Year. Either way it’s unexplained transmission,  in the community, and it’ll have been around a few days, maybe more.

These two cases are unlikely to have been asymptomatic. Because they aren’t day 1, 6/7 and 13 or track and trace tests. So they’ve probably higher viral load. Something prompted them to get tested.

We should have had a roadmap and regs ready just for this.

[Banker]

4 minutes ago, Cambon said:

Luckily luckily, the majority of the great Manx public disagree with you, and are acting responsibly.

Are they F**k , loads out walking when I was about, plenty had people round in gardens etc , seems only you & Pongo agree with him shafting hospitality sector & workers .

You don’t suggest bars etc shut and then offer no support as it’s taxpayers money!!!

Edited February 27, 2021 by Banker

[Happier diner]

1 minute ago, John Wright said:

I’m not too sure what genomics would tell us about these 2 cases that would inform the lock down decision.

Its either from the Steam Packet case, but at two or three removed, ie transmissions, so there’s no overlap of risky places, or it’s a case that’s got in undetected, or been passed around asymptomatically since New Year. Either way it’s unexplained transmission,  in the community, and it’ll have been around a few days, maybe more.

These two cases are unlikely to have been asymptomatic. Because they aren’t day 1, 6/7 and 13 or track and trace tests. So they’ve probably higher viral load. Something prompted them to get tested.

We should have had a roadmap and regs ready just for this.

Your a brave man John. There will be a lynching mob out for you now.. Might take the heat of me for a bit.