IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Roger Mexico]

15 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said:

Especially since I see that 2,000 people have now applied for permits to move in and out. How on earth will they police 2,000 households self isolating when they can’t even police compliance now (I know several who have returned who received no calls of visits of any kind to check that they were self isolating)?  Asia has proved that testing works. You have mega cities like Hong Kong which have stayed largely COVID free despite borders largely being open purely down to testing and tracking apps. But western democracies don’t seem to like the concept of track and trace technology. 

Firstly it's not 2000 households but 2000 adults.  All over-16's have to apply individually.  And applying doesn't mean that people are planning to leave the Island immediately, but they are possibly thinking of doing so some time in the coming months.

For some reason there seems to have been a myth that arose in the UK media that Hong Kong handled the outbreak competently.  They didn't as a quick read of the Wiki article will tell you.  In contrast Macau did close their borders and managed to keep numbers right down.  I'm not sure that testing and tracing played much of role in the eventual fall in number: In a study published in April 2020 in the Lancet, the authors expressed their belief that border restrictions, quarantine and isolation, social distancing, and behavioural changes such as wearing masks likely all played a part in the containment of the disease up to the end of March.  Of course mask-wearing tends to be more common in East Asian societies anyway, but it may have been promoted because the authorities were trying to ban it.  And a decline in international travel and the rest of China reducing it's cases must also have helped.

Hong Kong eventually managed to get cases down to a trickle, but as the charts in that article show it has recently increased in a second wave that is even bigger than the first.  Today's reported 133 new cases are more than in the rest of China combined (34).

[hissingsid]

So people who are holidaying in Spain from UK are  now having  isolate for two weeks on return, may discourage some from going but who will be checking up on people returning?

[hissingsid]

People going on holiday from here will have to isolate for 14 days on return but rest of household does not....crackpot.

 

[x-in-man]

3 hours ago, Banker said:

But it obviously does as Jersey open for nearly 4 weeks & 2 positive cases!

What are you on about?  Step away from the internet ... oh, never mind ..

[thesultanofsheight]

12 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

Firstly it's not 2000 households but 2000 adults.  All over-16's have to apply individually.  And applying doesn't mean that people are planning to leave the Island immediately, but they are possibly thinking of doing so some time in the coming months.

I clearly said 2,000 people not households. It’s actually in the quote you reproduced. But still that is 2,000 houses that will need to be monitored (although some holidays might be joint) when we can’t already cope with follow ups and many of those households may not have the space to allow the returning person to isolate within the home. So if someone is sharing a bathroom or a bedroom with other family members who are still going to work and out shopping how would they even know? What assessment goes on? None is the answer which is why longer term testing and tracking makes much more sense as it can be better monitored. It has worked in other countries. 

i assume you know that Macau (115sq km) is even smaller than the IOM (572sq km). So really it’s not a good comparison at all. It’s also primarily a gambling location - so as nearly all it’s visitors are leisure travelers it can effectively shut down and move operations online as it’s not a business centre. As I said we’re talking 118 cases out of a population of 7,500,000 so the numbers are tiny and most of them will have been found through testing anyway before they even became a transmission risk. Also if you believe Chinese figures are actually 34 out of a population larger than the entire USA then you’ll believe pretty much anything I’d suggest. 

Edited July 26, 2020 by thesultanofsheight

[wrighty]

5 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

Because (as I keep on pointing out) there are dangers in the "Test and hope it's OK" approach that Jersey has adopted.  There's a possibility that people will infect others before the result comes through and people may not test positive if they have only recently been infected.  And of course it requires those arriving to behave responsibly and follow the letter of some quite complex instructions before and after they arrive on the island.

To some extent Jersey's entry procedures admit this.  Limited freedom while waiting for the test is only restricted to those who have been only in Green status countries in the previous 14 days[1].  Those who have visited Orange countries have to isolate for 5 days and take another test, while those from Red-listed ones (such as the USA) have to quarantine for 14 days.

 

[1]  Yet again the Isle of Man seems to be omitted.  You wonder if various people who have put up with him at BIC meetings are terrified that Howard will turn up.

@Roger Mexico please tell us what we should be doing, including reference to the cost and logistics of doing whatever it is that would be better than everything every other jurisdiction is planning or currently doing. 

[Non-Believer]

Does anybody really know? This virus is so capricious and random (in its effects on us) in its effects and severity it's difficult surely to set down firm conditions and policy for anywhere? Our politicians are currently conducting a massive balancing act; plate spinning. Our public health? Or our economy which governs all our lives?

[thesultanofsheight]

7 hours ago, Non-Believer said:

Does anybody really know? This virus is so capricious and random (in its effects on us) in its effects and severity it's difficult surely to set down firm conditions and policy for anywhere? Our politicians are currently conducting a massive balancing act; plate spinning. Our public health? Or our economy which governs all our lives?

We’ve done ok so far but we need to be testing new ways of managing the situation too. 

Edited July 26, 2020 by thesultanofsheight

[hissingsid]

What needs to happen is to quarantine the whole household for 14 days that should concentrate the minds of the people who cannot miss a holiday for twelve months.

[Black Mirror]

These are Covid-19 fatalities for Jersey. I haven’t seen comparable statistics for the Isle for Man. I guess they will be similar though. Note that there has been only one death among the under 60s.

[Mr Newbie]

On 7/25/2020 at 4:14 PM, woolley said:

Do they know who she is?

They will do exactly 5 minutes after she’s met them and shes done the whole “Do you know who I am routine” on them. Absolutely hideous woman. 

[Mr Newbie]

28 minutes ago, Black Mirror said:

These are Covid-19 fatalities for Jersey. I haven’t seen comparable statistics for the Isle for Man. I guess they will be similar though. Note that there has been only one death among the under 60s.

Interesting to note that virtually all those deaths are in the semi retired or retired age groups. And yet we’ve put millions of people who were never ever going to die of anything out of work (some permanently I’m sure) to protect a load of people who could have just stayed at home for a few months and used their pensions to shop for food online. 

[Anyone]

1 hour ago, hissingsid said:

What needs to happen is to quarantine the whole household for 14 days that should concentrate the minds of the people who cannot miss a holiday for twelve months.

All and well , the quarantine is not a concession it’s a deterrent and very good one. But the issue is not holiday travel. Its business travel. We’re told by the Starship Enterprise that people and business are queuing up to relocate but they can’t because they can’t come and do the research. Having said that every small island has had this interest. My guess is when things calm down that interest will evaporate. Boat missed if you like. 

[ellanvannin2010]

1 hour ago, Mr Newbie said:

 And yet we’ve put millions of people . 

Did you use the Dept for Enterprise TT arrivals calculator to arrive at that figure for the Island?

[Banker]

1 hour ago, Anyone said:

All and well , the quarantine is not a concession it’s a deterrent and very good one. But the issue is not holiday travel. Its business travel. We’re told by the Starship Enterprise that people and business are queuing up to relocate but they can’t because they can’t come and do the research. Having said that every small island has had this interest. My guess is when things calm down that interest will evaporate. Boat missed if you like. 

But in Jersey those interested people can visit without quarantine and also Guernsey are starting business tunnels so meetings can take place with business travellers either already doing business in Guernsey or wish to. The Guernsey business tunnel idea means those involved don't have to quarantine but can only do day trips and not stay on island.