IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Cambon]

The agreement does not include repatriation, dental, and various other areas. Travel insurance is still necessary 

 

[TheTeapot]

I know some people hate it, and I know we can't live in our bubble for ever, but compared with huge swathes of the world this is great. Sat on a busy Port Erin beach, roasting hot, drinking beer, child in the sea. We're so lucky to be here on days like this. If I had to wear a mask on the bus I probably wouldn't have bothered. Fuck all you whinging dickheads.

[Banker]

3 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

I know some people hate it, and I know we can't live in our bubble for ever, but compared with huge swathes of the world this is great. Sat on a busy Port Erin beach, roasting hot, drinking beer, child in the sea. We're so lucky to be here on days like this. If I had to wear a mask on the bus I probably wouldn't have bothered. Fuck all you whinging dickheads.

Obviously having such a great time you have time to come on here and be a whinging DHead!

[thesultanofsheight]

21 hours ago, Cambon said:

The agreement does not include repatriation, dental, and various other areas. Travel insurance is still necessary 

 

Their system is private ours isn’t so I imagine it’s more so that the DHSC don't get any nasty bills.

[TheTeapot]

19 minutes ago, Banker said:

Obviously having such a great time you have time to come on here and be a whinging DHead!

Just for you Banker, just for you.

[Simple Stuff]

Wonder why these Covid-19 cruises offloading their infections onto our island were even considered in the first place. It says “despite the ongoing border closure to non-Manx residents”. Thus, where permission had come from?

Of course, we will miss the tree-planting and beach cleaning session.

[Gladys]

The schedule was probably fixed at least a year ago, and bookings would have been taken.   Just like the rest of the travel industry flights and voyages weren't cancelled until the last minute to avoid having to repay deposits/fares when there was a chance they could still go ahead. 

[Black Mirror]

On 8/7/2020 at 11:11 PM, wrighty said:

Why is that?  Of the now 7 known coronaviruses to infect humans, 4 cause a common cold - nobody's going to bother developing a vaccine for that - and SARS and MERS seemed to disappear before they'd really got going.  I don't think there's any inherent reason why a vaccine can't be made against a coronavirus - I'm pretty confident we'll have one available in the next few months.  How well it works is another matter.

 

On 8/7/2020 at 11:29 PM, Cambon said:

Scientists are already saying that any vaccination will only potentially protect forva few months before it clears the body. On top of that, the way the virus mutates makes it (at least historically) too difficult to protect / vaccinate against. 

 

On 8/8/2020 at 7:25 AM, Banker said:

Perhaps you should be advising Howie instead of the medics we have as you know more! However a workable vaccine is expected in a few months with some including the Oxford one in final trials with encouraging results.

 

On 8/8/2020 at 8:34 AM, 360 View said:

An approved coronavirus vaccine may only end up being effective 50% of the time, the top US infectious diseases expert has warned. The chances of a COVID-19 vaccine being almost 100% effective are "not great", Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said on Friday: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-may-only-be-50-effective-us-disease-expert-fauci-warns-12044927

 

On 8/8/2020 at 9:20 AM, WTF said:

 a chocolate fireguard of a vaccine then ?  at great expense of course.

 

The consensus among UK government ‘s advisers, as reported by media sources that caters to the medical community, is that there is a 50% chance that a vaccine could be available for the general population starting from early next year, but that it is unlikely to give a highly effective protection against the virus (i.e., over 95% protection).

It is expected that the jab will only “mitigate” the infection’s worst effects by lessening its symptoms. As concerns the Oxford vaccine, trials found that two thirds of recipients developed headaches and a fifth developed high temperature. Thus, notably, people are more likely to experience symptoms from the vaccine than symptoms from an infection (over 90% over Covid-19’s infected are mostly asymptomatic).

Nevertheless, the vaccine is expected to stop the infection spreading to the lungs. And it is expected to work better than a flu vaccine, because Covid-19 is a more stable virus. Let’s say, 70% protection for, possibly, a couple of years. That is a fair estimate based on what we know so far. And the chance that one will be available next year is more than 50%.

Then, there is the issue of how many, among the general population, will want the vaccine. Here is a recent article on the Guardian regarding this specific matter:

Covid-19: only half of Britons would definitely have vaccination
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/09/only-half-of-britons-would-definitely-have-covid-19-vaccination

If 2/3 of people were to have a vaccine that is 70% effective, then only about 50% of the population would have herd immunity deriving from the vaccine, and the other half of the population would still be exposed. However, recent studies show that more than half of us have cross-immunity from other coronaviruses, which wold reduce the percentage of the exposed to less than a quarter (some, of course, have already been infected with Covid-19 specifically). And another factor to be considered is that the virus is likely to evolve to less dangerous forms over time, because cohabitation with the host is its best evolution survival strategy.

My conclusion is that coronavirus won’t be eliminated, it will stay with us indefinitely, but there will be not too many people dying from it. Over time, people will stop worrying about it. Obviously, many have already grown tired of the social distancing.

For most people it is not practical to repeat a vaccine every few years to protect from a virus with such low fatality rate. For most of the world, the two most relevant factors to bring resolution will be herd immunity from previous coronaviruses’ infections and lessening of the virus from cohabitation with the host. In Sweden now, only 1 or 2 people are dying from Covid-19 each day and the obvious trend is for things to get better.

 

[piebaps]

40 minutes ago, Black Mirror said:

herd immunity from previous coronaviruses’ infections 

What's the scientific consensus on herd immunity? We know that TJ had it twelvety times, so it appears that there is no such thing.

[pongo]

5 hours ago, Black Mirror said:

My conclusion is that coronavirus won’t be eliminated, it will stay with us indefinitely, but there will be not too many people dying from it. Over time, people will stop worrying about it. Obviously, many have already grown tired of the social distancing.

There is every good reason to believe, indeed to assume, that this virus can be eliminated.

It is important to understand the difference between elimination and eradication.

Quote

The eradication of a disease is permanent and global, while the elimination of a disease is an achievement restricted to a specific geographic area.

Eradication of a disease refers to a deliberate effort that leads to the permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of infection caused by a specific agent.1
Eradication means that intervention measures are no longer required, the agent, which previously caused the disease is no longer present.

Elimination of a disease refers to the deliberate effort that leads to the reduction to zero of the incidence of infection caused by a specific agent in a defined geographic area. A disease can be eliminated from a specific region without being eradicated globally. Actions to prevent the disease from transmitting or re-emerging are still required once a disease is eliminated

https://ourworldindata.org/eradication-of-diseases#:~:text=Eradication%20means%20that%20intervention%20measures,in%20a%20defined%20geographic%20area.

[Black Mirror]

3 hours ago, pongo said:

There is every good reason to believe, indeed to assume, that this virus can be eliminated.

It is important to understand the difference between elimination and eradication.

https://ourworldindata.org/eradication-of-diseases#:~:text=Eradication%20means%20that%20intervention%20measures,in%20a%20defined%20geographic%20area.

 

8 hours ago, Black Mirror said:

My conclusion is that coronavirus won’t be eliminated, it will stay with us indefinitely, but there will be not too many people dying from it. Over time, people will stop worrying about it. Obviously, many have already grown tired of the social distancing.

 

On 8/7/2020 at 11:11 PM, wrighty said:

Why is that?  Of the now 7 known coronaviruses to infect humans, 4 cause a common cold - nobody's going to bother developing a vaccine for that - and SARS and MERS seemed to disappear before they'd really got going.  I don't think there's any inherent reason why a vaccine can't be made against a coronavirus - I'm pretty confident we'll have one available in the next few months.  How well it works is another matter.

 

The population of Sweden is 10.2m. If there is now one fatality a day in Sweden from corona, making the same proportion with the Isle of Man, that would amount to 3 corona deaths per year in this isle.

This means that past lockdown and present border closure are now saving 3 lives per year (though we might have to "pay" back those lives once the border is reopened, as it will have to be, in the end).

A vaccine that is 50% effective would halve that fatality to 1-2 person per year. The other factors mentioned, herd immunity from previous exposure and evolution of the virus to less dangerous forms, may eventually reduce overall fatality to less than one per year. There will also be treatment drugs to reduce the chances of anyone dying. However, there will still be Covid-19 cases. People won't die from it, or they will die only quite rarely, but it won't have been eliminated.

 

[Escape Artist]

16 hours ago, Black Mirror said:

Then, there is the issue of how many, among the general population, will want the vaccine. Here is a recent article on the Guardian regarding this specific matter:

Covid-19: only half of Britons would definitely have vaccination
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/09/only-half-of-britons-would-definitely-have-covid-19-vaccination

 

On 8/7/2020 at 11:11 PM, wrighty said:

Why is that?  Of the now 7 known coronaviruses to infect humans, 4 cause a common cold - nobody's going to bother developing a vaccine for that - and SARS and MERS seemed to disappear before they'd really got going.  I don't think there's any inherent reason why a vaccine can't be made against a coronavirus - I'm pretty confident we'll have one available in the next few months.  How well it works is another matter.

 

I won’t do the coronavirus vaccine. That is not because I am some kind of anti-vax nut or something. Indeed I had all the possible vaccines, including a couple that are not done by normal course, such as the hepatitis B vaccine.

I will make an exception for this particular vaccine, the Covid-19 vaccine. That because the UK government response has been so crudely political; while pretending, ridiculously, to be “guided by the science”. Society was needless shut waiting for this vaccine. Then reopened because the shutdown was too unbearable (what a surprise). Refusing it, sends a powerful message.

And thus, for entirely politically reasons, I won’t take it.

 

[Nom de plume]

Jersey Update:

50,228 tests conducted

7 active cases

0 since Friday

5 Asymptomatic 

2 With symptoms 

0 Hospital admissions 

Borders were opened 3rd July (40 days)

No ‘Second Wave’

No mass death toll

No hysteria

No problem

 

IOM Update

”We don’t know what to do”

 

 

Edited August 11, 2020 by Nom de plume

[thesultanofsheight]

36 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

IOM Update

”We don’t know what to do”

IOM Update

We don’t want to upset a load of Covid obsessed lunatics who want to ignore reality for as long as possible. 

[Nom de plume]

4 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said:

IOM Update

We don’t want to upset a load of Covid obsessed lunatics who want to ignore reality for as long as possible. 

....... and have to go back to work.