IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Banker]

6 minutes ago, Cambon said:

I think you will find we go to the optional seven days and test scenario in about three weeks. It n other words, after the schools here and across go back in. This will seriously limit the number of people who want to take trips. 

Jerseys test on arrival is ok, but it can take an hour to get tested and out of the airport. And that is with a handful of flights a day. 

Well as posted previously they managed 4500 arrivals in one weekend with about 1100 passengers on Saturday & Sunday through airport so hardly a handful of flights!

[Roger Mexico]

Two more active cases in Jersey today (or at least since Friday).  But the worry is that these are community cases, not quarantined arrivals:

It depends how good and fast their tracing is and how enforced any subsequent isolations, but there's a danger that this is starting to spread through the community again and they will need to go into temporary lockdown as New Zealand did. 

[Roger Mexico]

7 minutes ago, Boris Johnson said:

Skelly in the media saying the tourist/ hospitality sector is missing the average 300,000 people that come here on average a year.

300K? If we get 30-40k in TT and the place looks busy, no hotels with rooms, where are these 260,000 people the rest of the year??

Something does not stack up. You would think with our location and very limited means of access we could get some accurate arrival figures. I tend to think they like to keep it vague to cover a multitude of wasted money operations.

I explained this on this very topic only two hours ago.  If the class doesn't start paying more attention, I'm going to have to keep you behind for more tests.

[Banker]

7 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

Two more active cases in Jersey today (or at least since Friday).  But the worry is that these are community cases, not quarantined arrivals:

It depends how good and fast their tracing is and how enforced any subsequent isolations, but there's a danger that this is starting to spread through the community again and they will need to go into temporary lockdown as New Zealand did. 

They don’t seem worried in Jersey as they were expecting cases but the very low number is probably welcome.

i doubt Jersey would panic like NZ and lock down for a few cases

[dilligaf]

2 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

These are Skelly figures and like all such are not even trying to be accurate.

The actual number of visitors to the Island was indeed about 300,000 in 2018[1] (estimated at about 308,300 in the Passenger Survey).  However this includes the whole year and 117,100 of these came (or rather departed) in Q1 (Jan-Apr so as to make sure Easter is always in Q1) and Q4 (Oct - Dec).  So only 191,200 were in the five months of the Summer.

More importantly 'visitors' is defined as everyone who comes to the Island who isn't resident here.  They are actually classified into four groups:

Period Visitors in Paid Accommodation (PVPA)  - people who stay in any sort of paid accommodation: hotel, B&B, campsite, self-catering, Homestay or whatever.  These made up 47% of visitors in 2018.

Visiting Friends or Relatives (VFR) - people who stay with friends or relative rather than paying someone.  Obviously some may be coming over for family reasons or just to see them but still paying for accommodation - they are included in PVPA.  It's where you stay that it is worked out on, not why you came.  These were 32% in 2018.

Business Visitors (BV) - People who are coming over 'in connection with their work'.  As well as the stereotypical businessman this will include people doing other specialist jobs, key workers and so on.  These were 19% in 2018.

Day visitors (DV) Not staying overnight and presumably mostly on business.  Only just over 1%.

So less than half of these 'visitors' were actually people who we would normally think of as visitors. The percentage will obviously be higher in May - Sep, but it is still probably only 120,000 - 140,000. 

 

[1]  The 2019 Passenger Survey analysis would normally have been published around April, but was lost in the Covid crisis.

Passenger surveys are complete rubbish. Nobody should ever use those as a yardstick for anything. Believe me.

[Apple]

2 hours ago, Andy Onchan said:

Do really think so?

Yes. Most of it can / will be probably redacted, based on clinical or scientific information received, commercially sensitive (Gas) etc.etc. 

[Non-Believer]

13 minutes ago, dilligaf said:

Passenger surveys are complete rubbish. Nobody should ever use those as a yardstick for anything. Believe me.

The DFE obviously do. I know someone who used to be a passenger surveyer. They'd say exactly the same. An entirely subjective process open to all sorts of stories and half truths.

Which is right up DfE's street.

[Cambon]

40 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said:

It isn’t 20% though is it? 

No, but is on virtually everything. 

[thesultanofsheight]

18 minutes ago, Cambon said:

No, but is on virtually everything. 

But you do understand that a 5% charge on something is less than a 20% charge on something equivalent somewhere else? Eating out especially is more cheaper down there compared to here. 

Edited August 17, 2020 by thesultanofsheight

[dilligaf]

10 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said:

But you do understand that a 5% charge on something is less than a 20% charge on something equivalent somewhere else? Eating out especially is more cheaper down there compared to here. 

But the revenue to the treasury is so much less. How do you balance that ?

[Black Mirror]

17 hours ago, thesultanofsheight said:

The irony of that is that they’re clearly happy to stand in an election to get a political role in an economy that’s going to be so badly fucked by then because of the things they refused to do now. But that’s ok as they have a job even if others don’t by then? As many have said right from the start they’re paralysed with fear about how to react to the crazy brigade. It’s holding us all back. 

 

17 hours ago, thesultanofsheight said:

I’m really starting to have had enough of this situation now. It’s like the whole world has lost its head. This was only ever about managing NHS resources. When did it morph into nobody ever catching C-19 ever and a deliberate campaign to slowly kill millions more people by stealth and widespread economic destruction? The crazy brigade have won. I hope they’ll enjoy living on benefits in the damaged world they’ve created. But exactly like Brexit sadly a lot of the fundamentalists driving the agenda don’t live in the real economy - they’re largely retired or soap dodgers. 

 

17 hours ago, Out of the blue said:

I agree with your sentiments, as I am also frustrated with watching the slow motion car crash that is unfolding due to the politicisation of the situation, the continued  fear being peddled by the media and frankly the mission creep that has led to the goal of flattening the curve becoming total elimination of the virus. Until the media decides to change direction and set a new agenda we will just have to suck it up I am afraid. Enjoy the fact that we can live in a semblance of normality and let this thing run its course. The pendulum will swing and people will realise that the cure is indeed going to be much worse than the disease, but we are not there yet. 

 

17 hours ago, Banker said:

IOM has no plan Jersey & Guernsey have implemented their plans to open borders and economies so we will be even more isolated.

thought Skelly had a plan to attract great new businesses?

 

16 hours ago, TheTeapot said:

The local economy seems pretty good to me, loads of work on, even turned some down, everyone I know in similar work is busy, houses are selling, planning applications are flying in, did you see how many people went to the Peel festival or the Nobles Park thing? Even H&B pubs have customers! And as the manx economy is based on financial stuff and gambling, and thats all basically online, I'd imagine these sectors which I generally know little about are probably doing pretty well too. I think you're mad Banker.

 

16 hours ago, Andy Onchan said:

But there is a plan: https://covid19.gov.im/general-information/travel-advice/borders-framework/

 

12 hours ago, pongo said:

You cannot provide a single example demonstrating that the Isle of Man economy would positively benefit at this stage from a lifting of the current border restrictions. It's not a question of whether this crisis is bad news for the economy. Of course it is. But there is no evidence or sensible modelling to indicate that lifting the current restrictions would improve the economy at this stage. Though there is every good reason to assume that it would have a negative impact.

 

12 hours ago, Cascarino said:

As a concrete example, my previously profitable company ran a loss for the first six months of the year and is eating in to reserves to keep staff employed. No government help has been given. The outlook for the rest of the year is not much better as our client base is not on the IOM. Pipeline for 2021 is drying up as no client development has been possible. Zoom etc is a great tool but no substitute for face to face in a relationship business. I fully support border restrictions, but it has to be risk based and done in a sensible manner. If it carries on for much longer we will need to relocate from the island.

 

It is not true that the world is made of Covid pussies. Look at the two pictures below: the first shows people sitting outside a South Bank‘s bar in central London last week; the second shows an open-air party in Saint-Denis, north of Paris, on August the 1st.

The two pictures are from Monday’s New York times; which of course expresses sharp words of condemnation at the reckless behaviour depicted... Instead, those pictures have been much comfort to me; so reassuring not everyone is easily brainwashed by the left. There are still plenty of mavericks unwilling to let themselves be re-purposed into suitable covidiots that can be imprinted with socialist purposes.

I just went through Monday’s postings to this thread, mostly focused on the present economic impact of the border closure in the Isle of Man.

There is another impact that may also affect the island in the longer term. Some of its residents will start worrying how often, in the future, they will be locked in the island, stopped from travelling back and forth, have serious restrictions placed on any travel from and to the island. Any time there is a bad flu season? It is not an outlandish question, considering that right now in the UK for instance, flu and pneumonia are killing more people than Covid-19 (I am not making it up, just google the topic) and the UK government is still imposing all the stupid paraphernalia of the pandemic (masks, local lockdowns etc).

Try, please, to see the matter from the point of view of someone who, like me, has chosen the Isle of Man in alternative to some other jurisdictions that are now accommodating for travel. One can bear a temporary aberration. But what if travel restrictions become a recurrence?
 

 

[thesultanofsheight]

5 hours ago, Black Mirror said:

Try, please, to see the matter from the point of view of someone who, like me, has chosen the Isle of Man in alternative to some other jurisdictions that are now accommodating for travel. One can bear a temporary aberration. But what if travel restrictions become a recurrence?

Over 600 people a week (not all residents as claimed either) coming here under a voluntary self isolation system which is largely unpoliced. 

https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/one-charged-four-arrested-for-isolation-breaches-as-2500-return/

Why do you still mistakenly think that the borders are closed and that’s what’s actually protecting you? The people you quote above are generally suggesting that a real system involving testing and tracking rather than an illusionary system of self compliance with cursory back-up checks being performed is introduced. The link above shows how that system is being abused too and those are only the known cases where people haven’t complied and I bet in almost every case they were shopped by neighbours and friends not actually discovered breaking the rules by the police. The upside of testing and tracking would be shorter quarantine periods as well. It’s the only logical way forward if government stopped listening to the ‘build a wall’ covid crackpots.

i doubt you have homes elsewhere either TJ. 

Edited August 18, 2020 by thesultanofsheight

[Apple]

On 8/16/2020 at 1:26 PM, Roger Mexico said:

However the biggest barrage of questions comes from Chris Thomas (who as a Minister didn't ask any last year).  There are no less than 43 of them to 11 different Departments and other entities.  And they are very carefully worded in a lot of cases - he clearly knows what should have been done and whether it has been.  Expect a lot of wriggling and some outright denials.

What is CT trying to accomplish with all these questions ? Is it a form of revenge, retribution for being sacked, trying to show how much he knows ( or doesn't), setting himself and others for next years elections, trying to get his job back, gaining a (new) reputation, standing up for the ordinary person, or none of the above. After todays answers, I look forward to whatever the responses are and his statements about what he thinks we should have done, when we should have done it, and where we should go from here. 

[Banker]

3 minutes ago, Apple said:

What is CT trying to accomplish with all these questions ? Is it a form of revenge, retribution for being sacked, trying to show how much he knows ( or doesn't), setting himself and others for next years elections, trying to get his job back, gaining a (new) reputation, standing up for the ordinary person, or none of the above. After todays answers, I look forward to whatever the responses are and his statements about what he thinks we should have done, when we should have done it, and where we should go from here. 

I think he’s trying to force comin to actually say what their plans are for various work streams which seem to have gone nowhere!!

[Non-Believer]

35 minutes ago, Apple said:

What is CT trying to accomplish with all these questions ? Is it a form of revenge, retribution for being sacked, trying to show how much he knows ( or doesn't), setting himself and others for next years elections, trying to get his job back, gaining a (new) reputation, standing up for the ordinary person, or none of the above. After todays answers, I look forward to whatever the responses are and his statements about what he thinks we should have done, when we should have done it, and where we should go from here. 

Perhaps he's just doing part of what the electorate put MHKs in office to do; ask questions and attempt to keep Government accountable.

Of course, the fact that he's suddenly able to do this again has nothing at all to do with not being in COMIN and/or not receiving the Chief Minister's shilling.

Nothing at all. Naturally.