Jump to content

IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, Galen said:

I wonder how many of our 'great and good' were aware of this, and if so, whether it was taken into account in respect of the control measures that were put in place

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/18/obscure-maths-bayes-theorem-reliability-covid-lateral-flow-tests-probability 

It's actually a very odd article - not because of what it says (which is mostly correct as I can tell) but because of what it doesn't discuss.  It goes on about the danger of false positives from the lateral flow tests, but that's never been the problem with them.  The whole point of LFTs (or any other test) is to identify people who have the virus.  So what you should be worried about is false negatives - people who are infected but the test doesn't pick up.  This isn't even mentioned - even though it had appeared in a Guardian article a couple of days earlier on the problems with LFTs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TheTeapot said:

Something positive needs to happen for sure, the situation in the UK is looking good enough to allow a fair bit more travel, but just cos it's got better recently doesn't mean anything is over.

The GLOBAL pandemic is still raging in parts of the world, case rates are as high as they've ever been, deaths aren't that far behind. It is a long way from finished.

I'm pretty critical of doomers, and really don't want to sound like one, but people are fooling themselves if they think this is the end.

Vaccination is as good as it is going to get I'm afraid.   The world is going to need to move on and accept people get ill etc.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, TerryFuchwit said:

Vaccination is as good as it is going to get I'm afraid.   The world is going to need to move on and accept people get ill etc.

'move on move on move on' you say this about everything you dont like.

Vaccination will be as good as gets, but its going to take quite some time. 

But move on anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

'move on move on move on' you say this about everything you dont like.

Vaccination will be as good as gets, but its going to take quite some time. 

But move on anyway.

True story I'm afraid.

We can't live our lives around how shit is it in Brazil etc.

The government job is to get people vaccinated.  That does as much as can be done.

After that people can make their own life choices.  Stay at home, wear a mask, avoid travel, be a bit healthier etc.  

Some people must be fucking shitting themselves at the moment.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, TerryFuchwit said:

True story I'm afraid.

We can't live our lives around how shit is it in Brazil etc.

The government job is to get people vaccinated.  That does as much as can be done.

After that people can make their own life choices.  Stay at home, wear a mask, avoid travel, be a bit healthier etc.  

Some people must be fucking shitting themselves at the moment.

You need 2 jabs to get the full protection. I’ve only had one, as have many people. More that happy to ‘move on’ when we are all protected - fully. 

  • Like 4
  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

It's actually a very odd article - not because of what it says (which is mostly correct as I can tell) but because of what it doesn't discuss.  It goes on about the danger of false positives from the lateral flow tests, but that's never been the problem with them.  The whole point of LFTs (or any other test) is to identify people who have the virus.  So what you should be worried about is false negatives - people who are infected but the test doesn't pick up.  This isn't even mentioned - even though it had appeared in a Guardian article a couple of days earlier on the problems with LFTs.

The false positives become more of a problem when the incidence of disease in the community has dropped to very low levels. Where the incidence of disease is less than 1 in 1,000 the chances are that a positive result from a Lateral Flow Test will be a false positive result. It is difficult to establish the exact numbers, but in London, where the incidence of Covid is currently very low, it has been estimated that only 25% of positive lateral flow tests are true positives (although it does depend a bit on the brand of test used, and who has taken the test).

The positive results can be checked with a subsequent PCR test, but that takes time to organise and analyse, which means lots of people (including their families) have to isolate unnecessarily until the PCR test comes back. In short, as the incidence of disease falls, the false positives are more troublesome than the false negatives. There will still be false negatives as well, but not many because there will not be many people with Covid.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, cheesypeas said:

You need 2 jabs to get the full protection. I’ve only had one, as have many people. More that happy to ‘move on’ when we are all protected - fully. 

Meh.  Your choice and you can stay at home while the rest of us take our chances and enjoy the spring and summer

A second jab for someone my age makes little difference to if I will become seriously ill or not.  I was never likely to anyway

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Newbie said:

The false positives become more of a problem when the incidence of disease in the community has dropped to very low levels. Where the incidence of disease is less than 1 in 1,000 the chances are that a positive result from a Lateral Flow Test will be a false positive result. It is difficult to establish the exact numbers, but in London, where the incidence of Covid is currently very low, it has been estimated that only 25% of positive lateral flow tests are true positives (although it does depend a bit on the brand of test used, and who has taken the test).

The positive results can be checked with a subsequent PCR test, but that takes time to organise and analyse, which means lots of people (including their families) have to isolate unnecessarily until the PCR test comes back. In short, as the incidence of disease falls, the false positives are more troublesome than the false negatives. There will still be false negatives as well, but not many because there will not be many people with Covid.

Lateral flow tests have the potential to cause a lot of unnecessary grief for little added value.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, cheesypeas said:

You need 2 jabs to get the full protection. I’ve only had one, as have many people. More that happy to ‘move on’ when we are all protected - fully. 

Just stay in house when borders open then & come out when vaccinated fully then!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Apple said:

https://www.three.fm/news/coronavirus/islands-third-lockdown-tynwald-committee-to-hear-oral-evidence/

 

This should help us to understand where we are and how we got here. 

Little bit short notice and not widely publicised.

When is it?  I am definitely sitting in the public gallery.  Hopefully it will start early afternoon when the Nags Head and the Albert will have been open for a few hours

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...