Banker Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, Major Rushen said: Why should IOM develop their own traffic light system when the Guernsey / Jersey system is tried and tested. Have an agreement that all 3 will agree on the regions and countries in each colour and have the same testing and isolation regimes. Island solutions for island problems. That would be sensible but Jersey Green areas are 50 in100k, Guernsey 30 in 100k so different between near neighbors, IOM will no doubt be in the middle 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Wright Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Banker said: That would be sensible but Jersey Green areas are 50 in100k, Guernsey 30 in 100k so different between near neighbors, IOM will no doubt be in the middle 😂 We are more likely to adopt UK traffic lighting. Green isn’t a very exciting list. It’s very short. And my suspicion is that we will require longer quarantine, reduce to 10 days, not 7, from end May. Testing on days 1, 5 and 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 16 minutes ago, Major Rushen said: Why should IOM develop their own traffic light system when the Guernsey / Jersey system is tried and tested. The Jersey system failed. Guernsey never really implemented it. It is not 'tried and tested' in any kind of positive way. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 1 minute ago, John Wright said: We are more likely to adopt UK traffic lighting. Green isn’t a very exciting list. It’s very short. And my suspicion is that we will require longer quarantine, reduce to 10 days, not 7, from end May. Testing on days 1, 5 and 10. No way will they got for that . There will be riots. If arrival test is negative then you get to go out and about from end of May 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 1 minute ago, John Wright said: We are more likely to adopt UK traffic lighting. Green isn’t a very exciting list. It’s very short. And my suspicion is that we will require longer quarantine, reduce to 10 days, not 7, from end May. Testing on days 1, 5 and 10. I think you will be proved wrong this week unless there’s a big uturn as Howard has already indicated reduced isolation for families & friends at start of May with further easing shortly thereafter. I predict 7/10 days 3 May & by end May traffic light system based on Guernsey so isolation until negative test for some areas, 7 for others & 2 tests. Hopefully reducing cost of tests to £25. Also isolation away from families will stop as well. All covered in workshops & will be formally submitted to Tynwald on Tuesday by CM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Banker said: I think you will be proved wrong this week unless there’s a big uturn as Howard has already indicated reduced isolation for families & friends at start of May with further easing shortly thereafter. I predict 7/10 days 3 May & by end May traffic light system based on Guernsey so isolation until negative test for some areas, 7 for others & 2 tests. Hopefully reducing cost of tests to £25. Also isolation away from families will stop as well. All covered in workshops & will be formally submitted to Tynwald on Tuesday by CM This. Most of this is already agreed in government and is exactly what is going to happen. There is no way that people coming here (and that will be anyone who wants to) will still be isolating for more than a day or so by the end of May. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Voice of Reason Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 1 hour ago, trmpton said: Baby steps. Baby sark steps No need to be sarky 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Rushen Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 19 minutes ago, trmpton said: This. Most of this is already agreed in government and is exactly what is going to happen. There is no way that people coming here (and that will be anyone who wants to) will still be isolating for more than a day or so by the end of May. That’s ok but when we have more than 100 cases those going back to the U.K. will be coming from a red area and will have to isolate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itsmeee Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, The Voice of Reason said: No need to be sarky Or cutting. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Voice of Reason Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 2 hours ago, Boris Johnson said: Having lived here most of my life I have noticed a local trait that a Manx thing to do is if you know something is to keep it to yourself even if it will help others. It seems to give the person with the "knowledge" a feeling of superiority and a boost that they love that they know more than you do? Some of that attitude going on? My experience is a little different. A local trait seems to be if you don’t know something about a subject you pretend you do. Still gives that person with the “knowledge “ a feeling of superiority though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Major Rushen said: That’s ok but when we have more than 100 cases those going back to the U.K. will be coming from a red area and will have to isolate. 3 minutes ago, Major Rushen said: That’s ok but when we have more than 100 cases those going back to the U.K. will be coming from a red area and will have to isolate. Nah. They will do away with isolation as we need to move on with our lives. Cases aren't an issue when people are vaccinated. The case number that is acceptable will obviously change as the vaccine program increases. Who cares of there are 1000 cases when all those who it might be an issue for are vaccinated? We had three thousand this year so far and it wasn't exactly a hospital or crematorium nightmare was it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, Newbie said: The false positives become more of a problem when the incidence of disease in the community has dropped to very low levels. Where the incidence of disease is less than 1 in 1,000 the chances are that a positive result from a Lateral Flow Test will be a false positive result. It is difficult to establish the exact numbers, but in London, where the incidence of Covid is currently very low, it has been estimated that only 25% of positive lateral flow tests are true positives (although it does depend a bit on the brand of test used, and who has taken the test). The positive results can be checked with a subsequent PCR test, but that takes time to organise and analyse, which means lots of people (including their families) have to isolate unnecessarily until the PCR test comes back. In short, as the incidence of disease falls, the false positives are more troublesome than the false negatives. There will still be false negatives as well, but not many because there will not be many people with Covid. No the false negatives are always more of a problem unless incidence is so very low that it's not worth doing any testing at all. The reason is the difference in consequences. If someone has a false positive it means they can't get in the pub. If they have a false negative it means you've got an infected pub and everyone who catches Covid there will take it back to their families and workplaces and you've got an outbreak. Add to that that the figures for false negatives are much higher than for false positives (maybe up to 50%) and you've got a recipe for disaster. Lateral flow tests look like they are worse than useless because they will provide reassurance that isn't justified. Edited April 18, 2021 by Roger Mexico Clarification 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said: No the false negatives are always more of a problem unless incidence is so very low that it's not worth doing any testing at all. The reason is the difference in consequences. If someone has a false positive it means they can't get in the pub. If they have a false negative it means you've got an infected pub and everyone who catches Covid there will take it back to their families and workplaces and you've got an outbreak. Add to that that the figures for false negatives are much higher than for false positives (maybe up to 50%) and you've got a recipe for disaster. They look like they are worse than useless because they will provide reassurance that isn't justified. 50 percent is rubbish But if every adult was doing two a week like the UK are......... Then it couldn't be a bad thing could it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said: No the false negatives are always more of a problem unless incidence is so very low that it's not worth doing any testing at all. The reason is the difference in consequences. If someone has a false positive it means they can't get in the pub. If they have a false negative it means you've got an infected pub and everyone who catches Covid there will take it back to their families and workplaces and you've got an outbreak. Add to that that the figures for false negatives are much higher than for false positives (maybe up to 50%) and you've got a recipe for disaster. Lateral flow tests look like they are worse than useless because they will provide reassurance that isn't justified. Well going to use for tests for 5000 person concert in 2 weeks! https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/uk-56789454.amp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Banker said: Well going to use for tests for 5000 person concert in 2 weeks! https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/uk-56789454.amp Not here though. We will continue to test noone and then be surprised when a case comes in and quickly escalates to an outbreak. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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