IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Barlow]

Dr Allinson puts out a 9pm IoM Government video:

https://www.facebook.com/iomgovernment/videos/459894108568165

Edited April 21, 2021 by Barlow

[bonatti]

2 hours ago, Kopek said:

'' Stop giving the figures''?????

If we are to manage our own safety during mitigation, how can we do so without figures and details?

Details maybe, but figures? What difference would it make if it was 50, 500 or a 1000 cases? How would that change how you managed risk?
Even details are pretty worthless. The island is such a small place that it would be ridiculous to think that there would be some areas safer than others.

 All figures are doing is increasing people’s fear.

The message should now be clear. If you are concerned or at risk, then protect yourself as best you can. 

 

[Roger Mexico]

4 hours ago, wrighty said:

Of course that’s not what it means. In a swabbing study there were only 20% of the number of positive tests in those vaccinated with one dose compared with the unvaccinated group.  It isn’t that 80% are fully covered and 20% not at all.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/p0329-COVID-19-Vaccines.html

 

I'm not sure how seriously we should take any organisation that puts out a press release without linking to the original paper it's based on and even worse doesn't even mention any of the authors.  I eventually tracked it down by a circuitous route and here it is:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm?s_cid=mm7013e3_w

It has the usual (mostly unavoidable) problems with such surveys, such as timing and sample size.  More important I have some difficulty with the idea that such 'real world' exercises are automatically more accurate that clinical trials.  Partly because this one wasn't real world - it was limited to health workers in six US states (and over half were in Arizona) and that bring complications of its own.  There are other oddities in the sample, only 11% of cases being asymptomatic looks low for example.  But also because trials are usually well designed to make sure that the problems are minimised.

That said it's clear that vaccination does work, the question is about levels.  I suspect the estimates against infection (80% for one dose, 90% for both) are a bit on the high side and of course there's no way of knowing how long they last for.  Data are up to 13 March from mid-December and even the 61% who received the first dose in December would have had only maybe six weeks of full coverage to be assessed. 

I'd add two points about local application.  Firstly this only applied to mRNA vaccines - Pfizer and Moderna.  So the figures probably won't be the same for AZ.  Secondly where the Pfizer vaccine has been used on the Island it has been done recently with a much longer gap between doses (against manufacturer's recommendations).  So even that may not apply.

[2112]

5 hours ago, Barlow said:

Dr Allinson puts out a 9pm IoM Government video:

https://www.facebook.com/iomgovernment/videos/459894108568165

Are things that desperate this pathetic and quite frankly knackered regime, resorting to trotting out Allinson. It’s like a cosy fireside chat, all is well, no worrying, move along. My concern is these new cases must have arisen over the ‘lockdown’ period for it to come into effect now. Somethings not adding up. Another IOMG screw up?
 

[2112]

16 hours ago, Blackajah said:

Been saying this all long - they need to come out and admit there can be no TT/FOM with prevailing attitudes ie,- that NOONE must be admitted to hospital or become ill with covid because Noble's can't cope.   

Yes, we will have to live COVID, HRH The Chief Minister has quite clearly stated this. It is extremely likely that vaccination for COVID will likely be a yearly exercise like influenza.

So the question being is could Nobles Hospital cope? 
 

As part of the justification for lockdown, and especially last year and the speed limiting restrictions, was to prevent Nobles from being overwhelmed. Could we cope with a TT  and still have outbreaks of COVID-19, have lots of motorcycles and riders here, and road closures with racing? Something has got to give, perhaps at the risk of the populations health. Can we seriously place a priority of an island full of supposedly spending TT motorcycling fans filling the island, and staying in local hotels and home stays which in turn possibly spreading COVID-19 around? 
 

Maybe the TT is going needs to the sacrificed for the good of the Islands medical needs. Unless IOMG build an alternative medical centre designed to cater  for motorsports and tourists etc? Another IOMG Rolls Royce scheme.  It’s just a thought. 
 

 

[Newbie]

3 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

I'm not sure how seriously we should take any organisation that puts out a press release without linking to the original paper it's based on and even worse doesn't even mention any of the authors.  I eventually tracked it down by a circuitous route and here it is:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm?s_cid=mm7013e3_w

It has the usual (mostly unavoidable) problems with such surveys, such as timing and sample size.  More important I have some difficulty with the idea that such 'real world' exercises are automatically more accurate that clinical trials.  Partly because this one wasn't real world - it was limited to health workers in six US states (and over half were in Arizona) and that bring complications of its own.  There are other oddities in the sample, only 11% of cases being asymptomatic looks low for example.  But also because trials are usually well designed to make sure that the problems are minimised.

I think that the CDC is an organisation that can be taken seriously, and they do mention the limitations of the study within the discussion. The original link was to a press release highlighting the findings of the study, rather than to the study itself which was published online on the same day by the CDC in their weekly Morbidity and Mortality report.

I would agree that it isn't a real world study insofar as the majority of the participants were medical personnel, although arguably, their work could put them more at risk of contracting Covid, meaning that the results are more impressive. It could also account for the relatively low incidence of asymptomatic infections. Medical personnel who know that they are taking part in a post-vaccination surveillance study are likely to have a greater awareness of symptoms than the general population, or at least be more likely to report them.

One further caveat is that any study such as this can only look at the effectiveness of vaccines against the SARS-Cov-2 variants that are prevalent in that area at the time, rather than any variants that might emerge, or become more dominant, in the future. The CDC do appear to have a number of such studies ongoing and/or planned, and presumably any change in effectiveness of vaccines against new variants will be assessed in due course.

Edited April 22, 2021 by Newbie

[Ham_N_Eggs]

7 hours ago, bonatti said:

Details maybe, but figures? What difference would it make if it was 50, 500 or a 1000 cases? How would that change how you managed risk?
Even details are pretty worthless. The island is such a small place that it would be ridiculous to think that there would be some areas safer than others.

 All figures are doing is increasing people’s fear.

The message should now be clear. If you are concerned or at risk, then protect yourself as best you can. 

 

This outbreak has come earlier than was planned for because they were in another mad rush to open. They had one week between opening schools up to essential workers kids and opening up to everyone. That is not a gradual phasing. There are roughly just shy of 13,000 people who have been jabbed in the last few weeks who won't have developed immunity yet. 

Crucially part of a successful mitigation strategy that has worked in Asian countries is publishing track and trace information in a timely manner aided by technology ie an app. If you stop reporting cases all your doing is ignoring the issue. As Teapot said a few pages so you can't have a little bit of a pandemic. You also can't move to a mitigation strategy if you haven't put any mitigations in place.

[Banker]

8 hours ago, snowman said:

So they walked off the plane, out of the airport and into A&E ?

Are you normally this stupid? possibly straight from airport to hospital or from home when illness got worse!!

with one individual in ICU with the virus. The person who is in ICU is has recently returned from the UK following specialised medical treatment.

[Albert Tatlock]

3 hours ago, 2112 said:

Are things that desperate this pathetic and quite frankly knackered regime, resorting to trotting out Allinson. It’s like a cosy fireside chat, all is well, no worrying, move along. My concern is these new cases must have arisen over the ‘lockdown’ period for it to come into effect now. Somethings not adding up. Another IOMG screw up?
 

We are now in the mitigation phase...there will be no rush to press conferences Ashford said this morning on MR.

However, there is a briefing at 4pm - probably to outline mitigation strategy I guess.

This means it's down to us all to act individually, but there will be occasional guidance. Lockdowns will only come back in the event of an 'emergency'.

So some people are going to have to make hard decisions - live like a hermit or get on with it.

Perhaps more of a dodgy 'hope for the best' kind of strategy...which might well bite them in the ass when they expect a lot of grannies to vote them back in Sept.

Edited April 22, 2021 by Albert Tatlock

[Nom de plume]

35 minutes ago, Albert Tatlock said:

We are now in the mitigation phase...there will be no rush to press conferences Ashford said this morning on MR.

However, there is a briefing at 4pm - probably to outline mitigation strategy I guess.

This means it's down to us all to act individually, but there will be occasional guidance. Lockdowns will only come back in the event of an 'emergency'.

So some people are going to have to make hard decisions - live like a hermit or get on with it.

Perhaps more of a dodgy 'hope for the best' kind of strategy...which might well bite them in the ass when they expect a lot of grannies to vote them back in Sept.

Eventually business & the wealthy trump Grannies.

When they start to ramp up the rhetoric behind the scenes with threats of large scale redundancies & relocation the narrative & policy change remarkably quickly.

[snowman]

As a result of the 'debate' yesterday what was the outcome?

Was there a vote? Were any change to dates?

[Ham_N_Eggs]

38 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

Eventually business & the wealthy trump Grannies.

When they start to ramp up the rhetoric behind the scenes with threats of large scale redundancies & relocation the narrative & policy change remarkably quickly.

We'll see how business copes with loads of people of ill.

[chris4652009]

14 minutes ago, snowman said:

As a result of the 'debate' yesterday what was the outcome?

Was there a vote? Were any change to dates?

 

Borders open end of June 

[chris4652009]

53 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

Eventually business & the wealthy trump Grannies.

 

Won't all of the grannies have been vaccinated by the end of June??????? 

[Annoymouse]

A lot of mixed messages coming out, Monday 19th was our return to ‘normal’ we were told that positive cases are likely to crop up in the near future and we will just have to live with it. A few days later we have positive cases and now people are being told to be mindful/careful? Well which one is it? are we living with it or not? 

I had my name/number taken by 1 of the 3 places in the name of ‘contact tracing’ that I visited yesterday, that seems like a sensible step, perhaps all pubs/restaurants/eateries/venues should do the same?