John Wright Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Nom de plume said: CoMin meeting tomorrow morning. Pressure on them quite considerable by all accounts. 12 minutes ago, trmpton said: Heard the same. I will be astounded (and extremely dissapointed) if they don't announce the border dates are moving forward tomorrow. They are rightly facing huge pressure to do it and there is no justification not to. Figures in UK are already at levels where their own framework says we should be ahead of where we are. 7 minutes ago, Barlow said: I think that is fair enough. The situation is fluid. (Thanks for the more informative post than Nom de plume's) Except the most recent 14 day figure for UK is 40.1 per 100,000. Our parameter is 30 per 100,000. And some areas in North West are 195 (Hyndburn) and 160 (Bolton). Never pays to overstate your case. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanShimmin Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 I'm waiting on the Doom Coven to start throwing around the cases from the Seychelles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, John Wright said: Except the most recent 14 day figure for UK is 40.1 per 100,000. Our parameter is 30 per 100,000. And some areas in North West are 195 (Hyndburn) and 160 (Bolton). Never pays to overstate your case. Semantics around the way figures are counted. In reality we all know the levels are incredibly low. NY Times update of a 7 day average published yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Wright Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, trmpton said: Semantics around the way figures are counted. In reality we all know the levels are incredibly low. NY Times update of a 7 day average published yesterday. It’s not semantics. The figures you post are calculated in a different way, they’re a 7 day new cases average. The accepted international figure is the 14 day new case figure ( not an average or daily average - a total ) and it’s always 4-7 days behind because there isn’t real time reporting. Im just pointing out that the figures in UK still are not below the 30 per 100,000 in 14 days threshold agreed by Tynwald. The time to challenge methodology or thresholds was then. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 1 minute ago, John Wright said: It’s not semantics. The figures you post are calculated in a different way, they’re a 7 day new cases average. The accepted international figure is the 14 day new case figure ( not an average or daily average - a total ) and it’s always 4-7 days behind because there isn’t real time reporting. Im just pointing out that the figures in UK still are not below the 30 per 100,000 in 14 days threshold agreed by Tynwald. The time to challenge methodology or thresholds was then. Perhaps they’ll change to copy Jersey who set level at 50, 30 is far too low Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, John Wright said: It’s not semantics. The figures you post are calculated in a different way, they’re a 7 day new cases average. The accepted international figure is the 14 day new case figure ( not an average or daily average - a total ) and it’s always 4-7 days behind because there isn’t real time reporting. Im just pointing out that the figures in UK still are not below the 30 per 100,000 in 14 days threshold agreed by Tynwald. The time to challenge methodology or thresholds was then. We all know it makes absolutely no difference to the perceived risk how they calculate figures. We all know the virus is now circulating in the UK at very, very low levels and causing no issues in hospitals. Waiting based on an irrelevant statistic is just stupid. The risk is negligible now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happier diner Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, John Wright said: It’s not semantics. The figures you post are calculated in a different way, they’re a 7 day new cases average. The accepted international figure is the 14 day new case figure ( not an average or daily average - a total ) and it’s always 4-7 days behind because there isn’t real time reporting. Im just pointing out that the figures in UK still are not below the 30 per 100,000 in 14 days threshold agreed by Tynwald. The time to challenge methodology or thresholds was then. I agree with John on the method of calculation. However if i look on the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control i gives the UK figure at 12/100,000. Am I doing something wrong? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lethargy Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 The rate given by Public Health England is 21.3 cases per 100,000, as of May 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Wright Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Happier diner said: I agree with John on the method of calculation. However if i look on the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control i gives the UK figure at 12/100,000. Am I doing something wrong? I’ve seen that as well. I got mine from a UK government publication for 14 days to 4/5, and issued last on 10/5. I’ll try and link later. Im not against reduced travel restriction. It’d suit me. I’m about to have jab 2. I want to go to UK. 88 year old aunt in Norfolk not seen since late February 2020. Tenants vacating rental property and new tenants moving in Spain. And spanish home has been empty and unaired since mid October. 300 year old building. I travelled two months last summer with figures higher than 12, 30 or 40 per 100,000. But it doesn’t do any good to shout about the framework using irrelevant or wrong figures. That’s dangerous. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Wright Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, lethargy said: The rate given by Public Health England is 21.3 cases per 100,000, as of May 6. That’s the 7 day rate, not the 14 day measure used to set travel thresholds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 (edited) deleted Edited May 12, 2021 by snowman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happier diner Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 20 minutes ago, John Wright said: I’ve seen that as well. I got mine from a UK government publication for 14 days to 4/5, and issued last on 10/5. I’ll try and link later. Im not against reduced travel restriction. It’d suit me. I’m about to have jab 2. I want to go to UK. 88 year old aunt in Norfolk not seen since late February 2020. Tenants vacating rental property and new tenants moving in Spain. And spanish home has been empty and unaired since mid October. 300 year old building. I travelled two months last summer with figures higher than 12, 30 or 40 per 100,000. But it doesn’t do any good to shout about the framework using irrelevant or wrong figures. That’s dangerous. I have calculated it my self and I get 44/100,000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Happier diner said: I have calculated it my self and I get 44/100,000 Alot of data here to crunch https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights#overview Edited May 12, 2021 by snowman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-where-are-the-coronavirus-hotspots-in-the-uk-12303591 Data shows that although the average infection rate in the UK has fallen by 15% to 40.1 per 100,000 people for the two-week period ending 4 May, there have been sharp rises in some areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 24 minutes ago, snowman said: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-where-are-the-coronavirus-hotspots-in-the-uk-12303591 Data shows that although the average infection rate in the UK has fallen by 15% to 40.1 per 100,000 people for the two-week period ending 4 May, there have been sharp rises in some areas. Yep. Always going go happen. I would expect "cases" to rise over the next few months. At recent briefings they have told us not to focus on local cases numbers as it is no longer an indication of any cause for concern, yet their own exit strategy is based around case numbers in UK rather than deaths or hospital admissions. Madness 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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