IOM Covid removing restrictions

[madmanxpilot]

1 hour ago, lethargy said:

The rate given by Public Health England is 21.3 cases per 100,000, as of May 6.

That's the seven day rate - the IOM uses the fourteen day rate. 

From the IOMG website:

Isle of Man Government has released a revised version of the Exit Framework, which sets out key indicators (see page five) for the Island's border, testing and isolation response over the mid term future, based on the UK 14-day notification rate of new COVID-19 cases and deaths, as defined weekly by the ECDC.

Weekly ECDC data is available here. 

The WHO Coronavirus Dashboard contains useful global information and data regarding COVID-19.

The '14 day case notification rate' is calculated by the ECDC by adding together newly reported COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population for a specific area in the past 14 days, and dividing this number by the total population that live in that area, this is then multiplied by 100,000 in order to allow consistent comparison of different areas.

[madmanxpilot]

2 minutes ago, trmpton said:

Yep. Always going go happen.  I would expect "cases" to rise over the next few months.

At recent briefings they have told us not to focus on local cases numbers as it is no longer an indication of any cause for concern, yet their  own exit strategy is based around case numbers in UK rather than deaths or hospital admissions.

Madness 

I would hope and expect that case rates are not the only metric they are considering now. They have said they are considering the 14 day death rate too - that will become far more important than cases as the numbers vaccinated grows. 

[trmpton]

1 minute ago, madmanxpilot said:

I would hope and expect that case rates are not the only metric they are considering now. They have said they are considering the 14 day death rate too - that will become far more important than cases as the numbers vaccinated grows. 

So would I.  But their document clearly states that we are looking at rates in UK.  John posted the relevant graphic again this morning.

[Happier diner]

4 minutes ago, trmpton said:

Yep. Always going go happen.  I would expect "cases" to rise over the next few months.

At recent briefings they have told us not to focus on local cases numbers as it is no longer an indication of any cause for concern, yet their  own exit strategy is based around case numbers in UK rather than deaths or hospital admissions.

Madness 

Yes that correct. The infection rate will rise as restrictions are lifted. Its inevitable. However that rise should be significantly less than the rise in an unvaccinated population. However theoretically, as well as a less steep rise in infections, its expected that there will be negligible rise in hospitalisations and deaths. If that becomes fact then the vaccination programme is working as expected.

Folks need to stop worrying about the infection rate from now on unless its causing illness and death.

[Happier diner]

1 minute ago, trmpton said:

So would I.  But their document clearly states that we are looking at rates in UK.  John posted the relevant graphic again this morning.

And if they don't change that metric we are stuck for months

[madmanxpilot]

2 minutes ago, trmpton said:

So would I.  But their document clearly states that we are looking at rates in UK.  John posted the relevant graphic again this morning.

In the preamble to the revised exit strategy on the IOMG website, they say they are also considering the 14 day death rate.

Much as we may sometimes suggest on these forums, they cannot be so thick as to solely to consider cases. Boris himself stated 'the link between cases and hospitalisation and deaths has been broken by the vaccines'.

[Banker]

3 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

And if they don't change that metric we are stuck for months

Problem is you’ve got Mark Lewin from DOE & cabinet office in charge of exit strategy who are only looking at one metric. Guernsey are using a UK regional basis eg NW region is green, Yorkshire amber etc based on rates.

Jersey have just classified UK as all green with no isolation for fully vaccinated. IOM has worst of all metrics as basing on all UK including NI & hot spots 

[Happier diner]

5 minutes ago, madmanxpilot said:

In the preamble to the revised exit strategy on the IOMG website, they say they are also considering the 14 day death rate.

Much as we may sometimes suggest on these forums, they cannot be so thick as to solely to consider cases. Boris himself stated 'the link between cases and hospitalisation and deaths has been broken by the vaccines'.

Lets hope they do as our border is getting less likely to open and not more likely

[Cambon]

13 hours ago, trmpton said:

Have you seen what is happening in the UK?

They haven't all had second jabs and are easing restrictions.

Less than 10 deaths a day out of 60 million people 

Lockdown for five months and closing the borders will do that.

[Cambon]

1 hour ago, trmpton said:

Yep. Always going go happen.  I would expect "cases" to rise over the next few months.

At recent briefings they have told us not to focus on local cases numbers as it is no longer an indication of any cause for concern, yet their  own exit strategy is based around case numbers in UK rather than deaths or hospital admissions.

Madness 

As it should be. Death and hospitalisation are a result of case numbers.

[trmpton]

11 minutes ago, Cambon said:

Lockdown for five months and closing the borders will do that.

As does a vaccination program.  The vaccine more so than the others 

[trmpton]

5 minutes ago, Cambon said:

As it should be. Death and hospitalisation are a result of case numbers.

Time will tell.

I fully expect "cases" to rise but doubt you will see anything but a very small increase in deaths.  Maybe a slight upturn in hospital admissions - mainly because they will continue to count anyone who tests positive rather than only people ill as a result of having it.

[Cambon]

1 hour ago, Banker said:

 

Jersey have just classified UK as all green with no isolation for fully vaccinated. IOM has worst of all metrics as basing on all UK including NI & hot spots 

No they have not. They are going to take that position from 28 May if things in the uk stay as they are or improve. You still test on arrival and have to take the risk of being stuck there. 

[Cambon]

5 minutes ago, trmpton said:

Time will tell.

I fully expect "cases" to rise but doubt you will see anything but a very small increase in deaths.  Maybe a slight upturn in hospital admissions - mainly because they will continue to count anyone who tests positive rather than only people ill as a result of having it.

Let's hope so.

[Cambon]

7 minutes ago, trmpton said:

As does a vaccination program.  The vaccine more so than the others 

Rubbish! Hardly anyone in the uk had been vaccinated when the hard lockdown started. 

The problem we have here is the vaccination program. The uk has been frantically getting second jabs in arms. Virtually double our percentage. We have a large vulnerable population of 60-75 year olds whom have only had one jab, whilst we have been jabbing 18-30 year olds who are low risk. I think it is a big cock up!